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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

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just watch ed  the week  forcaston bbc  news  24  weather  for the week  its gob smacking   the beast of the east is due the end of next week and its going to get  even colder  with loads  of snow :cold::cold:

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So 24 hours since yesterday can the GFS get the canadian ridge migration right tonight-

East out if Canada, phase with azores high then ridge NNE....

4EBE12D6-A4A6-4021-90BA-8E37C853EB4E.thumb.png.aaf89cf3b81c3444001dab40fda46511.png

Edited by Steve Murr

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Looking better, not miles away from UKMO if memory serves.

gfsnh-0-168.png?18

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1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Looking better, not miles away from UKMO if memory serves.

gfsnh-0-168.png?18

Indeed, amplification starting a bit earlier on this run.  186 GFS vs 192 ECM, whilst clearly not a perfect match it's a move towards the ECM

GFS gfsnh-0-186.png?18 ECM ECH1-192.GIF?09-0

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Well it gets the separation done okay but gets a little crazy with the Atlantic trough.

Same old GFS, one step forward, one step back.

gfsnh-0-186.png?18

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8 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Well it gets the separation done okay but gets a little crazy with the Atlantic trough.

Same old GFS, one step forward, one step back.

gfsnh-0-186.png?18

It's like pulling out teeth watching the  GFS 18z run out . Why can't it just be consistent? 🙁

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Well, it really seems the GFS has nailed this.  Perfect symmetry between the 12z and 18z at 222 :whistling:

12z gfsnh-0-228.png?12 18z gfsnh-0-222.png?18 

Whilst there's not much to excite in the reliable/semi reliable, the sheer chaos in the NWP is testament to the situation that's unfolding in front of us.  More chaos to come, and bravo to that.

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17 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Well it gets the separation done okay but gets a little crazy with the Atlantic trough.

Same old GFS, one step forward, one step back.

gfsnh-0-186.png?18

Like I said earlier the North Atlantic SST tripole effect trying to override any other signal...classic case of a plus NAO pattern trying to stop the other signals that are showing up.

image.png

image.png

Edited by FiftyShadesofSnow

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1 hour ago, bradythemole said:

I know all the talk at the moment is about the SSW and the potential impacts starting to now enter the model timeframes, but this has been covered well already today by other superb posts as always.

Just wanted to highlight a wintry Sunday for some coming up and just how cold the air is that has been coming from the west at the moment. 

We have -10/-11c 850 temps from an Atlantic modified air mass on Sunday which is pretty impressive. Wet bulb down to below 100 for whole UK. Thickness also very low. For the majority this setup doesn’t deliver what we all crave the most and it will just be dry and cold. But Ireland and parts of the west could do well on Sunday but regardless these really are some chilly air masses hitting us from the west at the moment considering the modification. ❄️ 

E60A1AE9-6D54-4D0F-8445-6DA0346BB858.gif

82D016F6-B340-4E12-8192-0F16A4B6364B.gif

93BAE0D1-4690-4899-B80D-872A20662982.gif

Im with you all the way I don't bother looking at charts past 120hrs imo no point. With Sunday in mind Monday night into Tuesday is looking interesting as a weather front moves into cold air and as winds fall light behind it becoming slow moving, so over Wales scotland & Northern England so potential for heavy snow. Also Wednesday morning after a frosty night, a system moving up from the south into cold air with SE winds wrapping cold air into the mixes it pushes up the western side of UK so more snow again for a time.

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This is the Gfs 18z for sunday..not bad huh!:D:cold-emoji:❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄ let it snow

18_45_preciptype.png

18_45_ukthickness850.png

18_45_ukthickness.png

mask-rd.jpg

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18Z goes and gives us the flattest output of the winter with a perfectly spherical PV centered over Greenland after the SSW at t288...

Edited by Snowy L

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The eps clusters have 27% support for the op solution. The largest cluster now is unsupportive of the scandi ridge pre day 10. In general, my concerns from viewing the mean earlier borne out in the clusters. Blocked in fi but not in a great place for the uk to see much of the white stuff till the very end of week 2 (and that’s with a binary aspect to the two fi clusters) 

onto tomorrow ........  

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If we take GFS Op output today just out to 144/168, on the whole it has moved toward ECM re behaviour of the trough.

I wouldn't mind betting the control run slaps the Op across the boat with a large and particularly wet Halibut.

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Wow, this really is a quite appalling run with the early effort of amplification quickly draining away. I just don't see this as a plausible option given the plethora of background signals, and I'm not saying that due to lack of cold for the UK.  I would think this is a likely outlier, we'll see on the ensembles soon.

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Not quite the end of winter i'm hoping for:help::D..naughty 18zzzzzzzzzzz

18_384_uk2mtmp.png

18_384_mslp850.png

18_384_ukthickness850.png

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What’s the bet now that ecm looks crap in the morning and gfs is better? Happens all the time they just flip flop about like no tomorrow it’s actually very annoying. I keep saying I’m done with the model watching as it gets me quite frustrated but then I find myself back here just hours later.....think I need HELP

not sure about the garden path anymore I think it’s a big fat motorway 

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43 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Looking better, not miles away from UKMO if memory serves.

gfsnh-0-168.png?18

Really? That is bad!!  Wait til Monday.....maybe a crucial suite?

Warm temps....as plausible as a freeze 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

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Still think the models are still trying to get a grasp of the SSW event. Wait till Sunday or Monday then start crying over the models being rubbish. 

 

 

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Some GFS operational wobbles appearing again inter-run, kind of expected IMO, as the models can be poor at handling strat-trop interactions, particularly GFS high res compared to EC, with not so great vertical resolution as the latter. Given the rapid sinking of the wind reversal / easterlies from the SSW toward the troposphere that has a currently well-organised vortex to our NW further compounding the confidence of models resolving how to weaken and displace the trop PV.

Such a strong and rapid SSW down through the strat should allow strong coupling of the strat and trop in the area where we need it too, MJO impacts on the jet stream combined with the eQBO continually trying to weaken the PV should help too. 

I wouldn't worry too much about a lack of ensemble support for HLB, given the ens members are run at lower res than the operational, I would have more faith in the high res runs, more especially EC high res for its better vertical resolution in the atmosphere over the GFS high res that seems less stable atm.

Edited by Nick F

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So what do you trust .The third rated model that changes every run or the top rated model that has shown consistent output at the crucial timeframe over the last 48 hours or so. mmmmm ......its not really that difficult is it?

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20 minutes ago, Mucka said:

I wouldn't mind betting the control run slaps the Op across the boat with a large and particularly wet Halibut.

P20 on the left, Op run on the right.

 

gensnh-20-1-240.pnggfsnh-0-240.png?18

 

Control is better than the Op but not great but didn't want to waste the clip. :sorry:

Actually GFS ensembles are not great at all, hopefully just a wobble...

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Probably a two third split in favour of the op solution in the GEFS ens. Onwards people...

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5 minutes ago, ITSY said:

Probably a two third split in favour of the op solution in the GEFS ens. Onwards people...

Hope we beat Spurs tmw...really worried the very cold SST anomaly southern tip of Greenland is feeding lows out the NE USA and the jet...leaves us in no mans land for longer.

 

image.gif

Edited by FiftyShadesofSnow

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