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Paul

Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

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npsh500.png npsh500.png

Much more useful positioning of the major blocking high on this run (right) :good:

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Get your skates on GFS stuck on T+210 can see a decent easterly coming in soon.

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UKMO has a strong -AO at 144z.86447138-4EAA-400F-A594-2852323D204A.thumb.gif.750a668e1baf5af638098cec4a7d7e14.gif

 

The GFS is now onto the correct solution. Scandi HP developing. Retrogression to Greenland is on the horizon. (20th approx)

AFBCE0EA-F24F-4A83-A3F4-30D433FB162F.thumb.png.c127346c4a520084fed791e721b85145.png

 

610A7B42-040C-44DC-B311-E906FC496939.thumb.png.80fe4f86636bdba229bb5fc03ed40799.png

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Gravy boat being stirred...

And the dinner will be worth the wait....

ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

filterMJO_vp_Phase.png

twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png

ensplume_small.gif

gfsnh-0-192.png

Edited by tight isobar

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The GFS finally looks like getting there.

Theres still an issue with how quickly low pressure near the UK fills and clears se and whether it separates from the upstream trough.

This run came perilously close to a phasing tragedy with the upstream troughing .

 

Edited by nick sussex

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I think this suggests well why OPs and ENS should not be taken for minute detail for some time yet. Model chaos it’s the good sort though as we always seem to go in a positive direction.

06z92F5931A-AAFF-44C0-A39A-B86331695319.thumb.png.7a2aa7f3118b7ceae1d2f922e9f1499c.png12zFB345393-19C3-47CE-95DF-0139F2E41238.thumb.png.954f76466d0e83192d3213f6dbfa98e0.png

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2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

GFSOPEU12_240_1.png

Hmmmmm Easterly (Not cold) but south East Europe is having an early spring.

Should eventually get colder uppers from Scandinavia once high retrogresses towards Iceland opening a Northerly blast

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2 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Should eventually get colder uppers from Scandinavia once high retrogresses towards Iceland opening a Northerly blast

GFSOPEU12_312_1.png

Classic retrogression, but it ain't quite right (for the UK at least)

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8 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

GFSOPEU12_240_1.png

Hmmmmm Easterly (Not cold) but south East Europe is having an early spring.

Can we have a greenland high please? Anything from the east is always on dodgy ground. Such a strong PV continually modelled over canada/greenland. Will the SSW nuke it...a split will just strengthen the lobe over that area...maybe (?). Atlantic looks strong, even the above chart has a LP system heading to the UK.

Edit...just seen a fat sausage entering greenland.

Edited by Chevron12345

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1 hour ago, craigore said:

To my eye that just looks mainly cold & wet ( hill snow) wth lots of P.M air , good for Scotland & elavation , not so nice for the rest.

That's why I said that it doesn't look good on face value

Look at all the greens to our north. Blocky

Onto the 12z run of the GFS and BOOOOOOOM...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=12&time=312&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

This would result in the coldest February spell since 2009 or 2010. Possibly even 1996

 

Edited by LRD

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1 minute ago, Chevron12345 said:

Can we have a greenland high please? Anything from the east is always on dodgy ground. Such a strong PV continually modelled over canada/greenland. Will the SSW nuke it...a split will just strengthen the lobe over that area...maybe (?). Atlantic looks strong, even the above chart has a LP system heading to the UK.

gfs-1-234.png?12

Low going nowhere as the east marches on.

gfs-0-252.png?12

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Small block developing too....should see us through to mid summer.

With the wind reversal we may just squeeze that lump of PV at the top of the chart under our new block:pardon:

gfsnh-0-348.png?12

Edited by winterof79

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1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

This is getting exciting from the Gfs 12z, the change could be starting in just over a week from now..lots more changes to come but the trend is lovely!!:D:cold-emoji:

12_216_mslp850.png

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12_336_preciptype.png

12_384_preciptype.png

Last pic shows the atlantic bashing through!! ;)

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plenty of potential for you folks back home...nice to see maybe i will not alone in shoveling snow from driveways and footpaths this year.:snowman-emoji:

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8 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

WOWZER! :cold::cold::D:yahoo:

gfsnh-0-348.png?12

Few frames before that it is even colder

gfs-1-288.thumb.png.e995d05e85bdb7d70c334d2af97d168a.pnggfs-1-312.thumb.png.0f1a3139ec2accf026b11af09196d469.png

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4 minutes ago, Chevron12345 said:

Last pic shows the atlantic bashing through!! ;)

gfsnh-0-384.png?12

Okay Dokay....or a mass snow storm over the UK in another 24hrs

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