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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

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Check out the high pressure building over Svalbard and Novaya Zemlya.

 

 

gfsnh-0-210.png

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

If the models suddenly latch onto this quick response then I still wouldn’t trust them past T120hrs .

And If they go this route then clearly regardless of their strat input until you get much closer to the actual SSW then they find it hard to cope with the reversal .

Anyway just one run so we need a few more and see what the ECM has to say.

No doubt the models are going to be in a state of flux over the next few days as they try to reconcile opposing forces - makes for great model viewing.

 There may even be an EU directive to limit the amount of ensemble trawling. :spiteful:

 

 

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Just now, nick sussex said:

OMG this GFS run is going to get the cold in much more quickly .

Digging upstream trough and the high heading ne ahead of it.

gfs-0-222.png?12

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2 hours ago, Chevron12345 said:

Thats great...for snow falling. But 2m temps at around -5 wont mean freezing so any snow falling will just melt. Anyway not the place for that discussion. 

The ground temperature can be sub zero when the air temperature isn't.

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UKMO for me even better than GFS at 144Z

Warm air surging into arctic

Screenshot_20180207-164823.png

Edited by winterof79

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A tale of two tropospheres

*(bit of poetic licence!)

gfsnh-0-240.png?12

The left side going like a F1 driver. The right side is disappearing like water down a drain...

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The GFS gets a bit messy later on but the early changes are very positive moving forward.

If the VQTR does verify then we’re likely to see some bigger changes developing before day ten.

The GEM also looks like it’s accelerated the SSW response.

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So a cracking start to tge 12z suite. My target of mid month for LP to attack on Wnw/Ese axis with stalling or now even more hopefully undercutting, looking quite reasonable.  But of interest is snow options look very viable from Sun into Mon.  I think GFS will end as a stonker!

 

BFTP 

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Mild sector alert!

image.thumb.png.3a4422d8adec44e954469c69dc1abd2b.png

Seriously though the trend is very good and the potential change looks to be starting much quicker.

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npsh500.png

The blocking high is so extensive across the latitudes that I can see why any modelling that doesn't sufficiently shut down the eastward momentum in the N. Atlantic sector could end up bringing a 'warm easterly' from way down in SE Europe for example. It's very important that the lows either stay west with a downstream ridge building N of the UK to link with the major blocking high or perform a sliding undercut that gets a good way east in Europe so that cold is advected west on the N. flank.

12z GFS has a half-decent attempt at the slide with LP #1, then a good effort at the downstream ridge effect with LP #2, then no more than a weak disruption with LP#3 so not managing either of the required behaviours/ 

h850t850eu.png h850t850eu.png  h850t850eu.png

LP #4 is then a silly dartboard feature for a time but to its credit, does become the best effort of the run at behaviour #1:

h850t850eu.pngh850t850eu.png

 

You'll not be surprised to read that I find the fact the succession of the third and fourth outcomes a bit suspect; maybe you'd have to deal with one of those but even bad luck has its limits :laugh:.

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Surprise, surprise, folks: the GFS is suggesting the potential for some potential at T+384!:rofl:

Netweather GFS Image

 

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At the risk of upsetting you after your comment to me this morning I am puzzled by this remark you made

Thats great...for snow falling. But 2m temps at around -5 wont mean freezing so any snow falling will just melt. Anyway not the place for that discussion

Can I assume you meant 850 mb temperature?

genuine question

Edited by johnholmes

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3 minutes ago, Purga said:

Mild sector alert!

image.thumb.png.3a4422d8adec44e954469c69dc1abd2b.png

Seriously though the trend is very good and the potential change looks to be starting much quicker.

Nothing would surprise me when it comes to living in the SW and winter. Aaaaaaaaaaaaaargh!

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Oh no! GFS 12z brings a fair amount of rain again in many western and more especially northwestern areas of the U.K. & Ireland (thanks to Atlantic dominated weather) and also across into Somerset, Dorset & the IOW especially near the coast. Not good news if you're like me and hoping for some cold but sunny weather instead of frequent rain.  :angry:

image.jpeg

Edited by Jonathan Rhodri Roberts

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13 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Surprise, surprise, folks: the GFS is suggesting the potential for some potential at T+384!:rofl:

Netweather GFS Image

 

Haha true. The point though is that we are presented, time and time again across individual runs, of opportunities to deliver significant cold weather from an Eastern quadrant. That is a rare thing and in itself symptomatic of how primed the N Hemisphere is to give somewhere at our latitude a significant bout of colder weather in the last third of February. 

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Three super finishes to the last 3 Gfs runs, 00z the winner followed by 12z and then 6z..still the 18z to come..gosh isn't this exciting and this is only the beginning!!:DAnticipation grows for something really special for coldies!:cold-emoji:

00_384_mslp850.png

12_384_mslp850.png

06_384_mslp850.png

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10 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

Oh no! GFS 12z brings a fair amount of rain again in many western and more especially northwestern areas of the U.K. & Ireland (as we return to Atlantic weather) and also across into Somerset, Dorset & the IOW especially near the coast. Not good news if you're like me and hoping for some cold but sunny weather instead of frequent rain.  :angry:

That’s not just rain, there is plenty of PM shots coming up over the next week or so. A lot of this precipitation will be falling as snow in many areas in NW of the UK.

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23 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS gets a bit messy later on but the early changes are very positive moving forward.

If the VQTR does verify then we’re likely to see some bigger changes developing before day ten.

The GEM also looks like it’s accelerated the SSW response.

Who knows the ECM or 18z could bring us an EQTR:D......Never know could be snowing by next Wednesday:cold:

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2 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Who knows the ECM or 18z could bring us an EQTR:D......Never know could be snowing by next Wednesday:cold:

image.png.cd666e109e9ad67ab8d181882bb3f548.png

Sorry - must keep positive :laugh:

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