Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

[snowice]

Gfs has the fronts a few hundred miles west on this run I would expect more upgrades in future runs

Edited February 3, 2018 by snowice

[Met4Cast]

Heights are actually building up towards Scandi again

The ECM hinted at this earlier before it blew up the PV over Canada, this is the type of trend we want to see

[Ice Day]

9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Can we squeeze at Easterly at 168 ( reversal from Westerly idea )

That's a good spot Steve, whilst I don't think it will happen on this run, we're not far away from that evolution.  Something else to watch out for (I don't have time for all this excitement).

[MattStoke]

Trouble with Thursday's front (for some wanting snow) is that it could go the same way as Tuesday's if things continue to back west. That would leave England and Wales largely dry (apart from any scattered showers) but all areas cold. Although it does look as if it has a bit more oomph than Tuesday's front.

Edited February 3, 2018 by MattStoke

[Singularity]

As it has been trending further N albeit gradually, seems conceivable that the Fri-Sat ridge from the Azores might actually become a reinforcement of the Scandi high. Sharpen the next trough up to slice that ridge off from the subtropical high and, well, results would be interesting (again).

[Weathizard]

1 minute ago, snowice said:

Gfs has the fronts a few hundred miles back on this run I would expect more upgrades in future runs

To be honest we are stuck in a middle ground situation no matter what, because the fronts are slow moving but where the fronts slow the warm sector is in play, so rain for all. I struggle to see a big enough change that can lead to anything noteworthy from this current cold spell.

 

Just my opinion of course, to me we are now looking further ahead again... 

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

Heights are actually building up towards Scandi again

The ECM hinted at this earlier before it blew up the PV over Canada, this is the type of trend we want to see

The spell(cold) just keeps getting prolonged..

With this such modeling is a positive(obviously)..

And height-sep-/warm sector, will aid in the holding pattern...certain upgrades!!

[Neiller22]

12 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

ICON precipitation charts for Thursday.

  

That's as far as the model goes. Rain for Northern Ireland and Western Scotland. Snow elsewhere, turning to rain in western fringes.

I can guarantee this westward correction will continue in the following days just like mon night and tues front. 

[Ice Day]

I'm really enjoying this run....174 and the wedge is narrower with colder heights to the north east. A new trend maybe?

[sausage]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

To be honest we are stuck in a middle ground situation no matter what, because the fronts are slow moving but where the fronts slow the warm sector is in play, so rain for all. I struggle to see a big enough change that can lead to anything noteworthy from this current cold spell.

 

Just my opinion of course, to me we are now looking further ahead again... 

not so sure your right here. as myself, tight n steve have pointed out the gfs 18z is quite a big upgrade for a change! however it could and will no doubt change again come morning.

[SMU]

192 & it’s phoenix from the Ashes !

[Duane S.]

1 minute ago, Singularity said:

As it has been trending further N albeit gradually, seems conceivable that the Fri-Sat ridge from the Azores might actually become a reinforcement of the Scandi high. Sharpen the next trough up to slice that ridge off from the subtropical high and, well, results would be interesting (again).

Just what I posted earlier.

This is exactly what happened with the one underway right now. The ops weren’t really interested but the ens had clearly been hinting at the evolution, then with about 5 or 6 days to go the ops cottoned on.

Synoptically it looks right again as well.

[Snowy L]

8 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Trouble with Thursday's front (for some wanting snow) is that it could go the same way as Tuesday's if things continue to back west. That would leave England and Wales largely dry (apart from any scattered showers) but all areas cold. Although it does look as if it has a bit more oomph than Tuesday's front.

Would much rather have a weak snow event than a strong rain event. Not just because of the snow, but because of the fact it means the cold is putting up a stronger fight.

[tight isobar]

Energy massing, pushing against the re-forming block....

That-energy blast @greenland aids the already pressed pv-@strat..cold spill is inevietable, the pressure is on and upper atmosphere split is on the move!!

10hpa..continued signal- and as above that deep infer energy gets punched-hard..

Ideal scenario -for strat, effects @ssw .

Two wave ...

as again..mjo phasing holding hands with ssw...

Almost perfectionatly!!!

Edited February 3, 2018 by tight isobar

[Hotspur62]

Just a thought but with the front struggling to move down from the NW on Tuesday against the Block to our East the little feature showing up in Central/Northern France that has recently popped up seems to be getting closer to Southern Britain??Maybe ,just maybe

[Snowy L]

It is a strange set up though. We have just been through the first of what is looking like at least 5 of these small releases of energy from the main vortex, all taking almost the exact same path. Never seen that before.

[andymusic]

rinse repeat - rinse repeat - very very interesting - like a stuck record lol

[MattStoke]

14 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Would much rather have a weak snow event than a strong rain event. Not just because of the snow, but because of the fact it means the cold is putting up a stronger fight.

Would be dry and cold away from the far north and west if it continues to back westward as much as Tuesday's though. I'd take cold and dry over mild but many across England and Wales hoping for snow would be disappointed, aside from those prone to any shower risk.

Less progressive outcomes are better for maintaining cold conditions but if the progressiveness decreases too much, the snow risk disappears.

Edited February 3, 2018 by MattStoke

[Duane S.]

4 minutes ago, Hotspur61 said:

Just a thought but with the front struggling to move down from the NW on Tuesday against the Block to our East the little feature showing up in Central/Northern France that has recently popped up seems to be getting closer to Southern Britain??Maybe ,just maybe

Yep, one to watch for sure. If we continue to see less and less progressive charts over the next 36 hours, that could end up quite a player for parts of the south.

[Snowy L]

Atlantic lows starting to spread down to Iberia at t228, could the Scandi High make it?

[Purga]

A potential lengthly cold spell developing especially for the SE, if GFS 18z is to be believed.

A good example of the models underplaying the strength of the developing cold block to out NE / E and the difficulties of brief warm sectors trying to shift a cold boundary layer i.e.

indeed FI could turn out quite interesting!

keep the faith...

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening ,the front moving  south east on Tuesday  dies out , as it moves across England  and Wales,  lots of uncertainty 

[snowblind]

2 minutes ago, Purga said:

A potential lengthly cold spell developing especially for the SE, if GFS 18z is to be believed.

A good example of the models underplaying the strength of the developing cold block to out NE / E and the difficulties of brief warm sectors trying to shift a cold boundary layer i.e.

indeed FI could turn out quite interesting!

keep the faith...

 

It's funny isn't it how the models had this idea a few days ago, dropped it and are now coming back to it. Let's hope the trend continues. This seems to happen quite a lot.

[Duane S.]

With the impending SSW and looking at the ruddy great vortex sat churning away mercilessly to our NW. It’s nice to know that it has no idea what’s coming...

Enjoy your last couple of weeks of dominance you big bully!!?

[karlos1983]

8 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

With the impending SSW and looking at the ruddy great vortex sat churning away mercilessly to our NW. It’s nice to know that it has no idea what’s coming...

Enjoy your last couple of weeks of dominance you big bully!!?

What’s annoying is that bully has been quiet all winter until now! Imagine if it was in tatters like it was in Dec/Jan. really goes to show just how unlucky we’ve been this year. We get height rises to our East/N East just when the trop PV has got organised!