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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?


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5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I'm fascinated by the 474 dam line over Canada. Not seen that before!

Should help the pm shots have some extra zing as the bitterly cold air is ejected out of canada..could be lots to look forward to in terms of cold / snow opportunities during the coming weeks.:):cold:

Edited by Frosty.
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Evening All  Ice Cold hope your still with us .... So the much touted SSW is coming into view & here’s my thoughts + timelines of when / where to expect it... We have seen lots of p

Well it's probably fair to say that I've been rather quiet on these forums for the last few years really, especially since 2013. After 15 years of internet weather watching, and more importantly,

Well - ho hum - let's have a sit rep. My eyes are hanging out on stalks.  The pacific first - engine of the climate system. How is our AAM looking in the face of the current high amplitude MJO?

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Anyway last one on this particular south east snow potential..

And steve murr will be the 1- for streamer exactions..

But the finger of death occurs when any backing of precip gets into the estuary..and precip explosion then forms as it make headway inland!!!!

Lets keep focused now!!

Edited by tight isobar
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1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

I'm fascinated by the 474 dam line over Canada. Not seen that before!

Well spotted:shok: initially I had some difficultly finding it. Is 510 dam line ahead of the occlusion here? That is is very infrequent you don’t see that on an average winter a long stretch of them typically. 

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Evening All! Looking at the North Atlantic Profile Hudson Bay in North America, may well be entombed forever in ice. Secondly , Ive never seen so much cold coming from the West. Probably uncharterd terriotory ,,,,,, A very strong jet stream from North America Buckling but why? Is that due to solar/lunar activity? A Forecasters nightmare in the days ahead...:cold: But plenty of Snow for some!!!

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GFS sea surface temperature anomaly. I would say from this that the majority of the North Sea off the east coast of mainland UK is slightly warmer than average which will allow for some unstable conditions giving heavier snow showers in a E to NE wind. 

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Whilst the eps are subtly different days 9/11 with the incoming Atlantic trough on a flatter trajectory, in the extended they remain broadly similar to previous though still with a bit less depth to the euro troughing (and not quite as cold). Note that the mean jet remains to our sw on a nw/se axis and at day 15, the probability of the Russian ridge pushing west into scandi increases - assume that fits with the potential post mid month as has been trailed by glosea 

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Still cold with very mild air way out west but sourced nearer from E seaboard rather than Greenland and Iceland with rain rather than snow - doesn't tie in with BBC location forecasts for my area - they have snow fri sat but they haven't been updated since lunchtime.

Far too much detail at this range imo 

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2 minutes ago, ghoneym said:

GFS sea surface temperature anomaly. I would say from this that the majority of the North Sea off the east coast of mainland UK is slightly warmer than average which will allow for some unstable conditions giving heavier snow showers in a E to NE wind. 

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hi mate, they are just above average in the north sea, which as you say, could help create instability. elsewhere they are around average and the cold air coming across the atlantic should serve to cool sst's further. they are not anywhere however, (even in the warmer areas) warm enough to moderate the incoming cold air as some might have us believe.

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Just now, bluearmy said:

Far too much detail at this range imo 

Avery's forecast must be based on what you said about flatter atlantic on eps although the way he worded it suggests timing difference there.

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5 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

hi mate, they are just above average in the north sea, which as you say, could help create instability. elsewhere they are around average and the cold air coming across the atlantic should serve to cool sst's further. they are not anywhere however, (even in the warmer areas) warm enough to moderate the incoming cold air as some might have us believe.

The ECM forecast for ssts.

ec-ens_nat_taem_msl_sst_anom_2018020100_

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10 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well then...it's about time for the GFS 18Z to trickle out. So, what'll it be eh? Buckets of snow at T+120? Drizzle at 144? Or - rattles and sticklebricks all over the floor, from T+168??

Eyes down! Punching Clowns at the ready...:D

Think I’ll be reaching for a bucket of Vodka in a minute, perhaps it will help me “see the wood for the trees” because it’s currently crazy in ere like!

Anyway ICON watch!

Front moving in. A line from SW England to the NE, doesn’t look to lively mind 

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Edited by karlos1983
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BROADSCALE PATTERN CHANGES REPORT - PART 3:  EURASIA TEMPERATURE AND SNOW COVER ANALYSIS + UK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES

I have just posted part 3 of my long report onto the Teleconnections Learning Thread. This includes an extensive section covering analysis of current and forecast Eurasian surface and 850 temperatures as well as a report on Asian snow cover extent and an update on British sea surface temperatures. All of these are important in relation to the easterly spell we are likely to see from mid-February following the upcoming cold spell which may or may not be interrupted by a brief milder interlude. So, I thought that those of you who are interested in this as well as the regular readers of my long reports might like to take a look at it. It is on page 5 (see link below). You will also find higher up on the same page,  Part 2 (Arctic sea ice extent and temperatures, sea surface temperatures up there and a thorough northern hemisphere surface and 850 temperature profiles and analysis) and Part 1 (including an analysis of the now favourable background signals for a prolonged cold spell and a cross-model analysis of the jet stream). In part 1, I also explain why I'm posting on the learning thread rather than on the MOD. While you're over there, why not take a look at some of the fascinating and varied posts on the thread. Here's the link:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89161-learning-about-teleconnection-science-and-background-signals/?page=5

Alternatively, just click on the chart below:

 

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Just now, Bobafet said:

Or perhaps people could moderate themselves?? The Mods have a tough enough job as it is I imagine!

 

Please take note, Thanks.

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Western coasts of the U.K. & Ireland look like getting the most precipitation next week but that will probably be a combination of rain, sleet, snow & hail. Tuesday night into Wednesday could be the best chance of seeing snow in the west, however it's possible to see a further mix of frequent heavy rain, sleet, snow or hail showers with a risk of thunder on Wednesday evening into Thursday across W Wales, N Devon & Cornwall as a "Pembrokeshire Dangler" develops so plenty of potential in what's been a snow starved west for the last several winters :good:

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Edited by Draig Goch
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More seriously on the 18z though..... Tuesday's mild sector a smidgen wider but the east flow ahead of it looks a smidgen stronger (straighter isobars). Wintry flurries widely towards the east/south east. Heavier snow showers in prone spots.

Meanwhile, the ICON 18z again has the front pushing well across the UK, bringing snow. Mostly light though.

Edited by MattStoke
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11 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Please take note, Thanks.

It's worth saying that there has been a lot of off topic/bickering posts tonight that have been deleted. That is a lot of hard work for the mods. If you find that your post has disappeared, then consider this, it is likely that your ability to post in the future will disappear too. So who wants their ability to post removed with the coldest spell of winter arriving........?

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9 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

Western coasts of the U.K. & Ireland look like getting the most precipitation next week but that will probably be a combination of rain, sleet, snow & hail. Tuesday night into Wednesday could be the best chance of seeing snow in the west, however it's possible to see a further mix of frequent heavy rain, sleet, snow or hail showers with a risk of thunder on Wednesday evening into Thursday across W Wales, N Devon & Cornwall as a "Pembrokeshire Dangler" develops so plenty of potential in what's been a snow starved west for the last several winters :good:

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And it looks like it's that Pembrokeshire Dangler which will bring the heaviest precipitation when comparing the total accumulated precip chart with the convective precip chart 

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Just tried to get some info of Fergie on twitter as at one o'clock today I was sitting in work wondering what could go wrong after reading the met update from today and musings on twitter. It seemed we were actually going to be lucky for once. (ignoring the cold from the east and chances of snow) I was hoping to  see the block continue to grow in strength with the cold in situ. 

Looks like for the time being the atlantic is going to gain the slight upper hand but with the MJO moving into phase 8 and the SSW all but being confirmed by Glosea and other models, how long until we start to see more amplication. 

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20 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

Western coasts of the U.K. & Ireland look like getting the most precipitation next week but that will probably be a combination of rain, sleet, snow & hail. Tuesday night into Wednesday could be the best chance of seeing snow in the west, however it's possible to see a further mix of frequent heavy rain, sleet, snow or hail showers with a risk of thunder on Wednesday evening into Thursday across W Wales, N Devon & Cornwall as a "Pembrokeshire Dangler" develops so plenty of potential in what's been a snow starved west for the last several winters :good:

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I would say that going off the first chart, those of us in Kent away from the coast would be best placed for a decent fall of nice 'dry' snow. 

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