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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

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7 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

With the alternating flows and cold in situ..i find it increadably difficult that snow wont-be an issue.

Best outlook-via cold -snow...in a long time.

Factoring in almost anywhere to that equastion....

The thing is we’re not seeing tightly packed isobars suggestive of showers will perhaps struggle more to get inland however if you see them they’ll fall for longer and you’ll get more.

1991 had slow moving heavy snows.. not comparing but you get the jist.

5DD0452C-1383-4C8A-9B7F-7EE9E0AA5C39.thumb.png.5ce9275616a7dae60040bb24069cf644.png

Edited by Daniel*

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19 minutes ago, KentishDan said:

Problem is John, as you should know better than anyone - The GFS PPN charts are utterly useless. In an unstable cold airmass snow will crop up at short notice. I agree people expecting feet of snow are going to be disappointed, but equally people saying "No snow nothing but dry" are going to be wrong too.

The models are largely in agreement. The cold is coming, the snow will follow, it always does.

And lastly on this now.

I agree gfs precip, charts..especialy @this range are....*swear-word*!!!

Edited by tight isobar

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Thank the high heavens the ICON is rolling out so we can get to some actual model related discussion!

The front seems to be holding together better on the ICON compared to the 06z, so perhaps more northern parts, especially with altitude might get more snow than bargained for.

icon-2-33.png?02-06icon-2-27.png?02-12

Edited by karlos1983

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3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

The thing is we’re not seeing tightly packed isobars suggestive of showers will perhaps struggle more to get inland however if you see them they’ll fall for longer and you’ll get more.

1991 had snow moving heavy snows.. not comparing but you get the jist.

5DD0452C-1383-4C8A-9B7F-7EE9E0AA5C39.thumb.png.5ce9275616a7dae60040bb24069cf644.png

That was more of a static flabby disrupted low with an existing cold pool.

We have a more fluid situation this time with energy disrupting and being replaced by more Atlantic energy.

All still capable of providing snow.

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2 hours ago, Catacol said:

Very very interesting situation. I'm at work and away from my links, but I had a quick scan this morning before jumping out the door, and left with these thoughts:

1. Modelling of the azores high is going to be problematic. The record spiking of the current mjo is creating anomalously high westerly additions which currently sit nearly 2 standard deviations above the climatological norm for this time of year. We know this is working against our Nina background and as every day passes confidence grows that this nino style imprint is substantially gaining the upper hand. For the azores high this is very bad news: the sub tropical easterlies are falling and will continue to fall, and support for the azores ridge will begin to collapse. The spike is so great I wonder whether the modelling will nail it precisely, and the GFS in particular has a known bias against these setups. Long and short of it - I expect the azores high to be overmodelled over next week and more reduction south and west to occur.

(EDITED)

Brilliantly insightful post earlier Catacol, thanks for sharing and forgive me for only quoting some of it. Found this first point particularly fascinating because a less influential Azores high has the potential to make a huge difference to how some of the models are modelling events next week (notably GEM & GFS). To my eye, a weaker Azores high would allow a stronger Easterly and extend the longevity of cold. Hard to know for sure of course, not least as this is nothing more than GFS's take on what might happen rather than what will happen, but looking at 72hr-192 on the 06z one would imagine the continental uppers might race across the country and become embedded that bit more eagerly without that pesky AH fouling up the job. Encouraging. 

tempresult_rth9.gif

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8 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

That was more of a static flabby disrupted low with an existing cold pool.

We have a more fluid situation this time with energy disrupting and being replaced by more Atlantic energy.

All still capable of providing snow.

We have the cold air firmly established by Sunday I see some similarity here in ECM 00z Wednesday especially. 

DC10D163-CED0-41C3-A943-BC3AFE680939.thumb.gif.a8e49aea4838c2bc0643d1b2112cada5.gif4584FCCF-691D-49F1-92AA-003AA2431885.thumb.gif.383491a816d0d835425c5d2df23736ac.gif

Edited by Daniel*

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At the risk of repeating myself, the prospect of non localised heavy snowfall next week is predicated on the meandering upper lows shown by ec op earlier 

without those we are fairly dependant on the decaying occlusions which will be, by their definition, unreliable 

 

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Cold uppers established (you can breathe people)

gfs-1-60.png?12

All eyes to the Atlantic front now.

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Anything to get excited about on the 12z yet???!!too nervous to look!!

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Still looking good: lake-effect snow along eastern coats at least? Or another round of Hunt The Snow Grain?:D

Netweather GFS Image

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1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

I don’t need to see precipitation charts from ECM you can draw a lot that from synoptic itself. 

I think you may be getting a bit carried away with the guessing of precip through Daniel. There is nothing at +96 for example for England and Wales on the EC other than a few light snow showers. Your mention of +120 is more interesting through, showing a good 2-5cm widely across East Anglia and the southeast.

Again, no major snow events are looking likely, but many areas should still see some snow at some point next week. The cold is certainly looking more notable than snow potential.

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2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Anything to get excited about on the 12z yet???!!too nervous to look!!

Small inter run differences? But at t66 gfs takes a small step towards ecm and Atlantic making less ground I would suggest.

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Just now, Nick L said:

I think you may be getting a bit carried away with the guessing of precip through Daniel. There is nothing at +96 for example for England and Wales on the EC other than a few light snow showers. Your mention of +120 is more interesting through, showing a good 2-5cm widely across East Anglia and the southeast.

Again, no major snow events are looking likely, but many areas should still see some snow at some point next week. The cold is certainly looking more notable than snow potential.

Nick would fronts or bands of snow at least moving N out of France be shown at this range? 

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Putting the frontal dynamics aside-tuesday..

We are already seeing that as the flow is now strongly noted(easterly)..the momentum is indeed gaining for more notable snow shower activity-east/south east...

This could easily become a much more noted, item as-again we move forwards and evolve!!!

gfs-0-60.png

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1 minute ago, SN0WM4N said:

Nick would fronts or bands of snow at least moving N out of France be shown at this range? 

That's exactly what's being shown for Wednesday on the EC. In fact, on closer look it is a pretty good snow event for that SE corner! This is the best of the week at the moment...

5a748a0b114b7_Maps02-02-201815.thumb.png.ac0e7f6eebbc9f6be14fdfa8c147081a.png

So nothing major on a nationwide scale, but locally it could be fun! Let's manage expectations though, this is NOT looking like a major snowy spell, but many areas will likely see some white stuff at some point.

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First off the ranks - ICON hasn’t read catcol’s post with the Azores ridge edging things further east 

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11 minutes ago, Nick L said:

I think you may be getting a bit carried away with the guessing of precip through Daniel. There is nothing at +96 for example for England and Wales on the EC other than a few light snow showers. Your mention of +120 is more interesting through, showing a good 2-5cm widely across East Anglia and the southeast.

Again, no major snow events are looking likely, but many areas should still see some snow at some point next week. The cold is certainly looking more notable than snow potential.

Good to know I’m not talking complete dog biscuits I like going with my instinct sometimes :D  for Tuesday there is signs of something to the south of SE England of which I did caveat in the post.

3905A6F2-8A9C-4276-9119-2A2BD679AB1E.thumb.png.7a73fa7ca4f9842170ca30b0a84d4101.png

 

Edited by Daniel*

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

First off the ranks - ICON hasn’t read catcol’s post with the Azores ridge edging things further east 

GFS does not agree however 

icon-0-108.png?02-12gfs-0-108.png?12

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Just now, Daniel* said:

Good to know I’m not talking complete dog biscuits I like going with my instinct sometimes :D  for Tuesday there is signs of something more proper to the south of SE England of which I did caveat in the post.

3905A6F2-8A9C-4276-9119-2A2BD679AB1E.thumb.png.7a73fa7ca4f9842170ca30b0a84d4101.png

 

Yeah that's the part I'm talking about at +120, there is indeed something interesting showing for Tuesday in the SE quarter of the UK (see my post above for snow depths from that). Will be keeping a close eye on that!

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If this one comes to pass, those unfortunate enough to miss out on any snow, will likely experience very cold, frosty nights with freezing fog...

Netweather GFS Image

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Gfs 12z...boring, rather flat. Cold yes but not overwhelming and dry...some fragmented snow Tuesday to amount to barely a dusting for a few

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Over analysis of precip charts at day 4/5 which are going to be out of date within a couple of hours ...........

infact, looking at the 12z ops coming out now, I would suggest the ec 12z will not have the same upper lows that the 00z did and will therefore be less snowy for the se 

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