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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

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Brrrrr

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Edited by chris55
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Ecm spreads yesterday morning led us to the 12z op

the ones here from yesterday evening led onto the current op (as @nick sussex noted yesterday evening

i wonder if the last couple of frames will follow with the blocking signal spreading to Iceland 

tempresult_bgw1.gif

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Ecm op and gefs at day 8 now on the same page. Surely it won’t be as straightforward as that!

Edited by bluearmy
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Dear forum members,

For the hardship caused to many of you over the weekend period by my, what I can only describe as, schoolboy efforts: I would like to offer the below as a means of apology... I hope you will see it to yourselves that I was having a bit of an off spell, having been out on an all night bender on Friday night with the GFS 18z. I believe I have learnt the error of my ways and hope we can continue on, as we left off, before this whole sorry debacle.

Yours,

The ECM

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JFF but look what could happen if the high decides to play ball. 

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S4lancia, that's funny, not many things make me laugh at 6.50 in the morning but that ECM apology did.

Great charts this morning with lots of cross model agreement, almost makes up for the fact its raining outside instead of the promised snow!

Andy

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5 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Absolute filth 

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Oh that’s naughty, stop that! Too early for such arousal!

I knew it was a good idea to take time away from the models for a few days 

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5 hours ago, Daniel* said:

Yep not quite as impressive as other examples provided but still a huge punch. 

2EDD57E7-6902-4384-BA6B-B3BF5469A3D4.thumb.png.8a2fde2477070528e967c2d948a7df0c.pngE66B833E-210D-445D-A5FB-E1CFE0D97970.thumb.png.242b32bb890e0906ccf12c3ea7c55021.png

1 Jan 1979 too had some very cold uppers -16C uppers for early winter that really is quite something.

5965D83B-5757-4450-A0AD-8ED0AD1B66FE.thumb.png.85524b854c7968849f10aaa53bc14783.pngCEE18201-0311-450A-9C86-915A760CE53C.thumb.png.a031d73228087c2e84bb198019ea6281.png

The following month too had -16C uppers, funny that two examples of it in one winter and while we have had a long barren stretch perhaps indicative of less cold available nowadays - thanks to warming arctic.

CE381EA1-09DF-4CEC-8660-DA5D6CA2E2A5.thumb.png.80e4d16d9ed7eded17f39218b2925750.png44A315DD-425B-42FA-BEEA-F490D70EFF1B.thumb.png.67245674fe8df79bfe381a40b5045257.png

Doimg some digging there were also two examples in infamous winter of 1947 within four days of another reaching south east.... 

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Not sure how the UK suffers from a warming Arctic yet the US can still rack up record cold in what seems to be most years recently!

Great overnight runs. Interesting to see whether London hits the 11c forecast on BBC weather after the main news last night. Was surprised to see them put up a forecast for a week ahead at a time  when the models are subject to such volatility.

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Now that's what I'm talking about!!..welcome back on-board Ecm!:cold::D?????

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AND  BIG DEEP BREATHS ?. I kept saying to myself don't look , don't look getting in panic thinking please don't go titts up . And I finally convinced myself to look and BOOM . What a set of mornings runs ?. . 

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Edited by ICE COLD
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8 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

AND A BIG DEEP BREATHS ?. I kept saying to myself don't look , don't look getting in panic thinking please don't go titts up . And I finally convinced myself to look and BOOM . What a set of mornings runs ?. . 

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I'm so delighted the Ecm didn't go teits up again, it's a great run towards the end and in line with how last nights Ecm  12z ensemble mean ended..looking forward to posting many more mouth watering charts in the hours / days ahead!:D:cold-emoji:

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I say! Those posted charts are pure adult material. I nearly choked on coco pops. Ecm is very good at handling medium range but t+240 is fi.  hopefully it's the result of the saw, and is a trend in the models for latter cross model consistency! Realistically however? Likely to water down imo.  But forget the science.. I'll take those charts in an instant!!!!

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5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm so delighted the Ecm didn't go teits up again, it's a great run towards the end and in line with how last nights Ecm  12z ensemble mean ended..looking forward to posting many more mouth watering charts in the hours / days ahead!:D:cold-emoji:

What did @TEITS have to do with it :rofl:

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ECM mean showing the centre of the high gradually moving a bit further north with each run at the end

ECMAVGEU00_192_2.thumb.png.9b14289386f65b6d7505d697097c8468.pngECMAVGEU00_216_2.thumb.png.9aeea0a89d0e853eacbfa1e8bbb261fa.pngECMAVGEU00_240_2.thumb.png.bdb1094ef7d1243478afb14f67be2608.png

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On 2/11/2018 at 10:33, Day 10 said:

Surely this:

gfsnh-10-66.thumb.png.129a270a07134ee110d008d552e3d3ca.png

and then this:

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would not equate to this:

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Changed your tune ECM, Arh don't worry knowbody noticed honest... :whistling:

Surely this:

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and this:

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can/would equate to this:

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2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended picking up an easterly flow??

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Yup, high pressure over Outer Hebrides.

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1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Yup, high pressure over Outer Hebrides.

Also pressure falling over the Azores region, which is always a good sign in winter!

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remember though before we have seen mega easterlies at that time frame,that never verify as they hit the more reliable time frame

also why has ecm been all over the place this winter it had mild sw winds over UK just two days ago nothing like gfs, now look at what it shows

dreadful performance 

 

 

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18 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The eps and spreads are impressively cold by day 10 and moreso thereafter. Omega block establishing to our north (Iceland) and the stronger push against it coming from the east .

i hope you all jumped on board yesterday ............

JFF, but the eps control run is crazy from days 12 to 15 (-12/-13C 850s widely across the UK).

Edited by mulzy

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