Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

[Man With Beard]

Don't know if it's been posted earlier but confirmation that the ECM ensembles is now sniffing out a Scandi/Greenland link up between D11-D15

[ZK099]

Spectacular mean showing heights in Svalbard/Greenland area. As many of the more knowledgeable on here have said, when the ENS signal is that strong, it's usually on the ball, or thereabouts. Likelihood is that we will see extensive northern blocking. The only issue is whether it will be positioned and orientated favourably to deliver cold to this isolated, lonely island...

[Duane S.]

Whilst it would be premature to get ahead of ourselves (not easy with the sort of output produced today), this is got the look of a rare classic 3 stage retrogression. UK MLB to Scandinavian HLB to Greenland HLB.

We can but dream...

 

[londonblizzard]

1 hour ago, Daniel Smith said:

Are there any winters in modern history (post 80's) where we've seen -16 over the UK? 

I always find it a bit surprising that we don't just accidentally now-and-again get uppers like this, considering our latitude and how close we often are to such cold air.
I believe we have to go back to jan 1987 for sub -16? I think 1987 had -18/-19 uppers

Correction: feb 1991 hit -16 in southern England

Edited February 13, 2018 by londonblizzard

[Weathizard]

IMBY, but shows the massive spread after the nice cluster cold runs.

[Daniel*]

9 minutes ago, londonblizzard said:

I always find it a bit surprising that we don't just accidentally now-and-again get uppers like this, considering our latitude and how close we often are to such cold air.
I believe we have to go back to jan 1987 for sub -16? I think 1987 had -18/-19 uppers

I think -20C uppers just may have made contact with Kent in the early hours of 12/01/1987.

There’s definitely been at least two events of -18C uppers nothing to that depth in 21stC yet, 12 hour intervals so it’s hard to say. There was another close incidence on February 1-2, 1956. Cold. 

[Stu_London]

Feb 7th 1991 - Probably -17C into some southern parts.

[londonblizzard]

Putting this on here for reference. 

Very nice cluster around 22Feb, then more than several below -10's, and a couple of -15's for good measure. 

[Daniel*]

35 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

Feb 7th 1991 - Probably -17C into some southern parts.

Yep not quite as impressive as other examples provided but still a huge punch. 

1 Jan 1979 too had some very cold uppers -16C uppers for early winter that really is quite something.

The following month too had -16C uppers, funny that two examples of it in one winter and while we have had a long barren stretch perhaps indicative of less cold available nowadays - thanks to warming arctic.

Doimg some digging there were also two examples in infamous winter of 1947 within four days of another reaching south east.... 

Edited February 13, 2018 by Daniel*

[JBMWeatherForever]

Looks like that Easterly we have all been waiting for is about to finally make its appearance !  Lots of cold weather to look forward to in the coming weeks,  and probably the coldest part of winter still to come ! 

[Mucka]

UKMO and GFS not particularly exciting with UK highs for a while, definitely slow burners. GEM the pick of the three.

 

GEM day 10

[Mucka]

It's a bit of a wait but GFS Op gets there in the end. Don't mind waiting another 300 hours do we?

Looking at the ensembles it sits somewhere in the middle. Some much worse runs that all but fail but others bring the cold much quicker.

P4 for example

and P6 even quicker

Still some junk as well, my least favourite P16 - thankfully an outlier,.

Lots of stunning synoptic charts in deep FI - very much Atlantic block, Greenland high the predominant signal.

Edited February 13, 2018 by Mucka

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

morning all if fantasy world right  its going to getthe  uk will be going in to the deep  deep cold

[Mucka]

GFS 00z ensembles, coldest set yet 

Love they way it dips again in deep FI  

[Rayth]

@Mucka indeed ! Quite a dive by the mean , wasn’t expecting that 

[Cheshire Freeze]

0z GFS ensemble mean day 16-

COLD

Pretty much the best synoptic you could hope for in early March if you like it wintry.

[Banbury]

11 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

0z GFS ensemble mean day 16-

COLD

Pretty much the best synoptic you could hope for in early March if you like it wintry.

Indeed, very impressive 

[Weathizard]

ECM now looks the best of the bunch at 144? Couldn't make it up 

 

GFS/ECM comparison 

[That ECM]

An easterly zephyr  depending on where you live.

[Weathizard]

Going to be some happy campers with this 168 chart, get to this and we are in the money.

 

Edited February 13, 2018 by Weathizard

[mountain shadow]

ECM, from zero to hero it seems.

[snowice]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Going to be some happy campers with this 168 chart, get to this and we are in the money.

ECM was rubbish yesterday its going to be the king today 168 is a cracker 

[chris55]

GFS ens with lots of cold in there, op on the mild side in the mid term, all down to positioning of the upcoming blocking high which is looking mighty impressive.

a cold feed does get pulled in eventually on the op though

A little earlier on the control

 

[Duane S.]

Another lovely set of GEFS ens this morning.

The op gets there, the slow way. But plenty are less patient and bring in a rip roaring Easterly in just over a week’s time...

Super consistency towards blocking in all the right places later on. That 1030 mean now breached and counting down with every run...

ECM op punching upwards nicely now as well...

[chris55]

Yep EC with a nice angle of attack bitter uppers incoming!