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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?


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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    GEM and GFS gone into full deep cold pattern.  ECM at t120 doesn’t on face of it look like it will go on to join yet.  Let’s see if it ‘switches’

    Not at t144.....

     

    BFTP

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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    Evening All  Ice Cold hope your still with us .... So the much touted SSW is coming into view & here’s my thoughts + timelines of when / where to expect it... We have seen lots of p

    Well it's probably fair to say that I've been rather quiet on these forums for the last few years really, especially since 2013. After 15 years of internet weather watching, and more importantly,

    Well - ho hum - let's have a sit rep. My eyes are hanging out on stalks.  The pacific first - engine of the climate system. How is our AAM looking in the face of the current high amplitude MJO?

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Small steps but comparing like for like from the ECM.

    Today day 6 vs yesterdays day 7

    ECM1-144.GIF?12-0   ECM1-168.GIF

    So it is better, but it still isn't in the same league as the other models.

    Edited by Captain Shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Better Ecm 12z than yesterday..no swly zephyrs today!:D..baby steps

    168_mslp500.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Quite big steps towards GFS from ECM at 168 - things are starting to get a little more exiting now.  Keep an eye on METO long range as I have a feeling it may start getting better.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    ECM is still woeful- Infact its going to get pwned by the GME ( DWD ) - Thats like Barcelona losing to a non league UK side

    Here is ECM 192 yesterday V 168 today

    BCE8ED1D-D491-431C-81D5-0065F4DB1337.thumb.png.34d3f0eeee9c0db6ee24c1f276b21474.png108E0159-86F3-42E1-9796-CE61B860E659.thumb.png.9139577d4e9be187fe8e6f4d0b1e6d9c.png

    Not that it really matters but UKMO has overtaken it as number 1 model in the last week (@ Day 6) but that is NH...

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    The differences between yesterdays T216 hours versus today’s T192 hrs is even more embarrassing for the ECM.

    Has Arsene Wenger taken over as CEO of the ECM:D

    PS I’m a disgruntled fan before Gunners fans berate me!

     

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Hopefully some frosty nights and crisp surface conditions under a big high!..better than long draw swly filth like yesterday's 12z!:)

    192_mslp500.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    The most progressive run of the lot this afternoon results in this...

    ECM1-192.GIF?12-0

    High pressure slap bang over the UK with the jet splitting and looping around the high with plenty of potential going froward for this to drift into a more favourable position. Overall todays output is certainly a step in the right direction, but still a long way to go before the the sledges can come out of the closet.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    Just now, nick sussex said:

    The differences between yesterdays T216 hours versus today’s T192 hrs is even more embarrassing for the ECM.

    Has Arsene Wenger taken over as CEO of the ECM:D

    Surely the models are firming up on things being colder slightly earlier now - this time next week we look like heading cold/very cold.  Just depends on how far noth the HP goes to what shower activity starts I guess.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield - God's County
  • Location: Wakefield - God's County

    So the awaited SSW is underway ... having read numerous posts regarding this and gained some knowledge ,one question that maybe you could answer is as follows..' is this SSW different to any others that we have had over the years ( many of which failed to deliver) ..if so what is the overriding difference ?'..asking for a friend ...????...answers on a postcard....ta v muchly x

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
    2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    The differences between yesterdays T216 hours versus today’s T192 hrs is even more embarrassing for the ECM.

    Has Arsene Wenger taken over as CEO of the ECM:D

    PS I’m a disgruntled fan before Gunners fans berate me!

     

    You and I both Nick 

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    Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

    Getting there... Better and better. We can see you ECM, doing a 'nobody noticed, I think I got away with it' GFS style manoeuvre...

     

     

    ECH1-192.GIF.thumb.png.527bb6b43c6dea48bae44d9cbce96560.png

    ECH1-216.GIF.thumb.png.9d03df2e0149884b30611f91f0dfa7c8.png

     

     

     

    Edited by s4lancia
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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
    1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

    Will ec op day 10 get some upper heights towards Iceland as the eps clusters showed his morning ?? 

    In a word, yes. Fabulous 12z's across the board.

    ECH1-240.GIF?12-0

    Edited by Ice Day
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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    ECM day ten alot better than previous runs ?

    IMG_1431.PNG

    Edited by ICE COLD
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    1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

    Will ec op day 10 get some upper heights towards Iceland as the eps clusters showed his morning ?? 

    ECM1-240.GIF?12-0

    Just about

    Edited by SN0W SN0W SN0W
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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    Strong signal from the GEFS mean run (extended range) for a blocked scenario with cold easterly winds. The blocking then retrogresses to Greenland

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=21&ech=192&mode=0&carte=0

    :clapping:

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    Posted
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
    10 minutes ago, K9 said:

    So the awaited SSW is underway ... having read numerous posts regarding this and gained some knowledge ,one question that maybe you could answer is as follows..' is this SSW different to any others that we have had over the years ( many of which failed to deliver) ..if so what is the overriding difference ?'..asking for a friend ...????...answers on a postcard....ta v muchly x

    I believe its the strength of the warming that is different this time... More details on the strat thread 

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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex

    It seems the ECM is like teaching a kid to paint by numbers. you have to expect it to shunt the HP northwards? 

    Anyway, ECM, Err Come on Man

    ECH1-192.GIF

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    Well that was a bit like putting the kids to bed, got there in the end kicking and screaming and it’s left me a bit pee’d off, but now I can relax atleast.

    0B8FC2A9-589C-404B-998F-F63D8A1DE040.thumb.png.5ba2d236836257325f2487697e9dea44.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    It's quite incredible how far the models have gone over the last 24 hours and I suspect there'll be a few more sizable moves to come. Dare I say, could there be more upgrades???? This time tomorrow we should see a gradual settling down of the period up to 168hrs

     

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