Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Can I just say quite blatent - the SSW will wipe the la nina base state off the map. It wont matter if theres a pacific ridge when theres downstream ridging blocking the canadian vortex.

Ssw-welling stamp- is overiding nina situ..

And is becoming a upper/mid latt, basis.

Overiding, of nina state is becoming ample..

 

[MattTarrant]

The 10hPa Mean Winds have officially become easterly as of the 18z GFS. 

[tight isobar]

So...we have via raws. 

An invigorated vortex..with bunsen warming @10hpa    .

Clear back logging of ops-lagging support!!

As the catch up on raw views- take evolution.

 

[cobby]

Simon Lee‏ @SimonLeeWx 19m19 minutes ago

 

 

GFS 0.5° 18Z analysis shows the 10 hPa zonal mean zonal wind at 60°N has become easterly. Ladies and Gentlemen, we officially have a major Sudden Stratospheric Warming! #ssw

[comet]

11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Can I just say quite blatent - the SSW will wipe the la nina base state off the map. It wont matter if theres a pacific ridge when theres downstream ridging blocking the canadian vortex.

Anyway - Have a good night all*

Quite agree the strat will be the main player for several weeks. The high AAM and MJO is all linked to the strat warming and now that is in decline the strat forcing will take over. The ECM should smell the coffee soon.

[bluearmy]

going back to the 12z, ec n Pacific ridge blamed for it’s flat downstream compared with gfs more amplified solution. But the gfs had the same n Pacific ridge so I can’t buy that reasoning..

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, cobby said:

Simon Lee‏ @SimonLeeWx 19m19 minutes ago

 

 

GFS 0.5° 18Z analysis shows the 10 hPa zonal mean zonal wind at 60°N has become easterly. Ladies and Gentlemen, we officially have a major Sudden Stratospheric Warming! #ssw

Thats not a complete pv-split though!..

Two large lobes..with 1-staying steadfast...

And not agree-with transfer of placement!!!

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, cobby said:

Simon Lee‏ @SimonLeeWx 19m19 minutes ago

 

 

GFS 0.5° 18Z analysis shows the 10 hPa zonal mean zonal wind at 60°N has become easterly. Ladies and Gentlemen, we officially have a major Sudden Stratospheric Warming! #ssw

Can someone please tell the Ecm that!..seriously though, I've seen plenty of great model output today, especially the Gfs / Gefs and even the Gem is looking good.

Edited February 11, 2018 by Frosty.

[Snowman.]

If you're wondering why their is a lack of comments on the 18z.

You can just assume it's pretty s**t

Edited February 11, 2018 by SN0WM4N

[JeffC]

Well here's your split vortex now 2 smaller vortices with  X polar HP. Warmer sectors (it's all relative!) Showing in turquoise...only -17C ...

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=8.09,85.26,218/loc=78.351,55.192

 

[mountain shadow]

20 minutes ago, cobby said:

Simon Lee‏ @SimonLeeWx 19m19 minutes ago

 

 

GFS 0.5° 18Z analysis shows the 10 hPa zonal mean zonal wind at 60°N has become easterly. Ladies and Gentlemen, we officially have a major Sudden Stratospheric Warming! #ssw

That's good news. Normally there is at least 3 weeks for impact for us at ground level, so around the weekend of the 3rd March.

The extended GEFS will hopefully start giving us some clue soon.

[bluearmy]

18 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

If you're wondering why their is a lack of comments on the 18z.

You can just assume it's pretty s**t

MLB is pretty well where we should expect to find ourselves based on current modelling. Better than ecm but worse than gfs. The middle ground is the best place to put your money for the time being. 

Broadly speaking I like this run - it’s a good stab at where the extended ens modelling currently takes us with the Atlantic trough stalling and dropping sse and the ridge fairly sceuro but a decent ridge nevertheless - the cold pool in the flow a reminder that surprises would be possible, even with this boring look set up. The Atlantic trough probably a bit too far  east .

Edited February 11, 2018 by bluearmy

[Ice Day]

Whilst it's been a pretty moribund run, there is an interesting consistency at 288 between the 12z and 18z.  Something to watch for sure.

18z  12z 

[Allseasons-Si]

LOL

you have got to laugh

we could have daffodils or snow... drops.

Edited February 11, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[pureasthedriven]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

MLB is pretty well where we should expect to find ourselves based on current modelling. Better than ecm but worse than gfs. The middle ground is the best place to put your money for the time being. 

Think I’d take that chart for the 20th. Plenty of good options from there. 

[sausage]

i cant believe how unlucky we are!! we just cant get any decent snowy prolonged spell can we!! shows than an ssw is also no good for us most of the time. i think were back to chasing shadows n countdwn to next winter yet again. so so frustrating n disapointing. 

n to add, you can see when things arent and dont look good when stevey murr goes quiet too!! oh dear

[lorenzo]

ECM ens from tonight with a general direction of travel , save the nuances..

 

Edited February 11, 2018 by lorenzo

[Met4Cast]

EC clusters show a marked improvement for Northern blocking at the end of the run

So not "gone", just perhaps more delayed than the models had been suggesting.

[bradymk]

The CFS the only model with a real grasp on the next two/three weeks at the moment ??

[Ice Man 85]

Really hope the GFS is on the sauce again. The end of the 18z is bloody horrific. How can it go from the 12z with deep cold to the 18z with sodding spring-like conditions? Any boffins in here please enlighten me!

Now the CFS is our salvation? If the bar gets any lower we could at least have a limbo contest

[pureasthedriven]

3 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Really hope the GFS is on the sauce again. The end of the 18z is bloody horrific. How can it go from the 12z with deep cold to the 18z with sodding spring-like conditions? Any boffins in here please enlighten me!

Now the CFS is our salvation? If the bar gets any lower we could at least have a limbo contest

I’m sticking my bunce on the daily MetO 15-30 dayer, which still looks okay, albeit less bullish than of late. Clear inter-run model volatility just now. 

[Ice Man 85]

Just now, pureasthedriven said:

I’m sticking my bunce on the daily MetO 15-30 dayer, which still looks okay, albeit less bullish than of late. Clear inter-run model volatility just now. 

We can all see where this is going...

[ghoneym]

14 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

EC clusters show a marked improvement for Northern blocking at the end of the run

So not "gone", just perhaps more delayed than the models had been suggesting.

I figured from earlier Fyrirstaoa means "obstacle" what does Hryggur mean? 

[Neiller22]

1 minute ago, Ice Man 85 said:

We can all see where this is going...

 Meto outlook will change soon. But will it be for better or worse. 

[pureasthedriven]

1 minute ago, Ice Man 85 said:

We can all see where this is going...

Trying not to voice that thought myself. That said, today’s update is pretty decent, as far as generalities go, and broadly consistent with itself over the past week.