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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

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13 minutes ago, ptow said:

That’s the 25th of feb. There were  charts like that 2 days ago for the 23rd and 4 days ago for the 21st. Even then the real cold is a 1000 miles away 

I see a pattern here. 

Summer is coming 

There is standard FI and then there is SSW FI.

If you have watched the models since 2005 then you will know the difference. 

That being said, nothing is guaranteed in the world of weather forecasting, but events up top really do count for something at the moment as we progress through late winter into early spring.

Give it 5 years and you'll get it. :) 

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Great models thus far,with the caveat that there is still plenty that could scupper things and it *may* take several bites of the cherry to get the big deep cold in. I await the 12z ECM ensembles to see just how many go with a full fledged cold spell, alot did on the 00z but still a sizeable number had too much energy in the northern arm of the jet.

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So, where are we now?

Let's consider probabilities, I think the original position, stated by someone from the Met Office was that a SSW would lead to UK cold 2/3 times - 66%.  Add on to that that it's a big split SSW not a displacement, maybe put that up to 75%?  Now that the models will have reasonable representation of the state of the tropospheric conditions at the time of the SSW, surely the 12 z's push this up to maybe 85%, particularly the ECM.  

Finally a look at the GEFS

gensprob-4-324.png?12

Chart shows probability of surface pressure >1030 mbar - Safe to say. It's pretty much all to the north of the UK at T+324.

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I think the ECM evolution (high building from the Southwest with the undercut coming from the east instead of the west) is more likely. The warming is going to push the Greenland vortex lobe west into central canada over the coming week so I dont see any real pressure coming from the Atlantic. I think the GFS was toying with the Atlantic undercutting and now it is in a bit of a no mans land. Hopefully it gets on board with the ECM in the next few runs.

Edited by Snowy L
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Just one more from me (this place is so damn addictive), I notice a slight oddity on the GEFS where there's less scatter on the 850's on days 7-8 that there is on days 5-6.  Just found that a bit unusual.

Diagramme GEFS

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Some posters yesterday suggesting even saying that posters were trying to second guess the outlook. Well no guessing here. Its going to get very cold and very wintry. If the Scandi high is the correct solution for initial trop response ( I think it may be slightly further west) then any regression will I would of thought help to bring colder uppers In quicker.

By Sunday there should be no more hiccups from the models with all (except UKMO of course because of its range ) showing some magical winter synoptics.

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3 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Just one more from me (this place is so damn addictive), I notice a slight oddity on the GEFS where there's less scatter on the 850's on days 7-8 that there is on days 5-6.  Just found that a bit unusual.

Diagramme GEFS

If the 18z latches on to one of those -6 850s at day 5 i think this place is gona go crazy as i think it will bring the cold in a lot earlier!!

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Quite obvious the predicted change over time to an Easterly on the ECM when scrolled through. The 18th it is....

T168 Westerly flow

ECH0-168.GIF?09-0

T192 North to North East Flow

ECH0-192.GIF

T216 Easterly

ECH0-216.GIF

Edited by Stuie W
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Could any signal override or mute an SSW zonal wind reversal one it's started ?......I'm thinking an SST Ocean signal like a tripole, Positive NAO etc...Or are these just parts of the jigsaw....I saw someone saying a North Atlantic tripole SST ocean effect, could impact the reverse zonal winds, muting the SSW?

Edited by FiftyShadesofSnow
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My goodness aren't things getting exciting:D A Ssw to look forward too and the ECM just beginning to really see the way to a proper cold spell. Day 9/10 look very close to what we might expect

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1 minute ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Could any signal override or mute an SSW zonal wind reversal one it's started ?......I'm thinking an SST Ocean signal like a tripole, Positive NAO etc...Or are these just parts of the jigsaw....I saw someone saying a North Atlantic tripole SST ocean effect, could effect the reverse zonal winds, muting the SSW?

The way things are with our climate today, most probably yes!

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Stunning Ecm 12z op this evening, even better than the 00z..coldies cups could runneth over again and again as we see charts similar to these repeated and yes, even improved upon!!..:cold-emoji::D..I love the Ecm..great model 💘💘💘💘💘💘💘💘💘💘💘

48_thickuk.png

72_thickuk.png

96_thickuk.png

168_thickuk.png

192_thickuk.png

216_thickuk.png

216_mslp850.png

240_mslp850.png

240_thickuk.png

240_mslp850uk.png

0515-610x340.jpg

825.gif

Edited by Frosty.
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UKMO at t168 pretty much following GFS with high pressure edging up from the south and lower pressure to the north

ukm2.2018021612_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.29edbc1c663572604a0efcd5b9405827.png

 

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Day 10 ECM

If you don't like cold conditions then I'd nestle down till April from this point onwards ;)

IMG_3304.thumb.PNG.108f14ffa8882b92fdc410f41fb8e6e5.PNG

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37 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS is a nerve shredder and the UKMO doesn't look as good as the ECM at T144hrs so we need a few more runs.

The ECM does though have a better grip on any strat influence so for the timebeing and given the SSW  perhaps we should give it the benefit of the doubt.

If you get to T168hrs with the clearance between UK low and upstream trough with the ridge in between then its game on.

Admit it Nick, don't you just luurrvvv the drama ? :laugh:

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2 minutes ago, ptow said:

Ha ha. I have been watching since 1998. Trust me it’s always 10 days away 

I will have you know, after tonight`s output, it is 9 days away just to buck the trend...

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Comforting to see some semblance of agreement on the models at last after a disappointing few runs from the GFS. Has the coffee truly been sniffed? Only time will tell. Still from tonight's output at least, prepare for a bitter harvest...

jAof9gL.gif

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Just now, timboy666 said:

what is a ssw?

Sudden Stratospheric Warming. I won't pretend to know what that is though

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ECM mean is a little surprising actually

66C4C028-7DE9-4859-9E5E-6952E236EC5E.thumb.png.1238c6bc139acdf2e66fb3bbeb9797a2.png01D4842B-7DBF-4041-BE96-E0F8ED09E788.thumb.png.14a4bbce1147bccb6ff660cfc53f9afe.png

Thought it would be colder at 240 and more amplified in the Atlantic or the NE

Edited by karlos1983
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20 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO at t168 pretty much following GFS with high pressure edging up from the south and lower pressure to the north

ukm2.2018021612_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.29edbc1c663572604a0efcd5b9405827.png

 

It's a lot better than GFS and closer to ECM IMO with the ridge on its way and troughs separated either side like ECM while GFS has an elongated trough for the same time. 

gfs-0-168.pngECM1-168.GIF?09-0

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2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

ECM mean is a little surprising actually

66C4C028-7DE9-4859-9E5E-6952E236EC5E.thumb.png.1238c6bc139acdf2e66fb3bbeb9797a2.png01D4842B-7DBF-4041-BE96-E0F8ED09E788.thumb.png.14a4bbce1147bccb6ff660cfc53f9afe.png

Thought it would be colder at 240 and more amplified in the Atlantic  

Karlos, that isn`t great but lets see from Monday onwards. It can`t unravel before it is raveled.

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5 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Karlos, that isn`t great but lets see from Monday onwards. It can`t unravel before it is raveled.

I’m not worried, I was just a bit taken back. It’s made more difficult by not seeing individual runs like we get to see in graph format for the GEFS. So I am at risk of contradicting what I said earlier about the mean if the graph has the same look about it as the GEFS did. I.e. couple of very warm runs skewed the mean. :)

As per below, they were well out of kilter with the majority

7780A9A0-0E99-441E-99A4-9A9175975549.thumb.jpeg.7b3504e2dcfe2afbb14e5db7fe98ed0a.jpeg

Edited by karlos1983
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Extended eps stays on track; higher than normal heights to the north, lower than normal heights to the south.  Slight change of emphasis in that towards the later end (days 14-15), the focus of the higher heights is moving west towards eastern Greenland.

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