Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

[Mucka]

Given ECM has had some run to run consistency and GFS is all over the map. I think we should still be optimistic of seeing something like this in 10 days if not better.

 

Edited February 9, 2018 by Mucka

[Banbury]

13 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Is it me or does the Atlantic seem to be going in to overdrive in this mornings runs?

Have we been led up the garden path again?

Have to say that was what I thought hence my post earlier but ECM has lessoned my thoughts somewhat 

[KTtom]

ECM sticking to it's run  from last night....the sausage is drooping!

 

 

Edited February 9, 2018 by KTtom

[winterof79]

In line with MET O expectations so keep your knees tied in

 

[chionomaniac]

I think that we can now say that the ECM is starting to reel in. Let's hope that trend continues.

[That ECM]

9 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Thanking you 

Nothing to do with me, if it was then you would be viewing some stunning output

 

t144 to t192 is interesting and I'm backing the ecm. Gfs just keeps ploughing on with the energy from the nw. Halfway house wouldn't be to bad.

Edited February 9, 2018 by That ECM

[joggs]

Well I for one am glad that all models are not showing cold nirvana at that range as there will be a lot of change over the next few days ie,where blocking sets up and where the cold floods South into mid latitudes.

Could be a case of suddenly dropping the right synoptics at a shorter timescale,we'll see.

[Rayth]

8 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I think that we can now say that the ECM is starting to reel in. Let's hope that trend continues.

The 00z run played out eerily close the the METO Text forecast ! 

[winterof79]

16 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Is it me or does the Atlantic seem to be going in to overdrive in this mornings runs?

Have we been led up the garden path again?

This is not your run of the mill garden path scenario.We have a ticket and have set off

[ICE COLD]

8 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I think that we can now say that the ECM is starting to reel in. Let's hope that trend continues.

I hate coming in here first thing in the morning in case it's gone titts up . But ECM consistent with last nights run. 

GEFS has got so very cold runs in too ?

[Radiating Dendrite]

15 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Given ECM has had some run to run consistency and GFS is all over the map. I think we should still be optimistic of seeing something like this in 10 days if not better.

 

Is this not just the ECM over amplifying everything again?

We have always seemingly ended up with a blended solution this winter. Great 144 charts slowly downgrading through the near reliable and ending with typical winter weather (cool, wet at times).

The coldest week this winter in the SE we were told! Yes we were -4.4c to start yesterday but we ended up with a max of 6.7c. Even synoptics that are regarded as pretty special no longer seem to deliver for us, I am not expecting any different this time around.  

[mb018538]

I wouldn't worry too much about 1 individual GFS run.....I'm more interested in the ECM/UKMO take on things, as the GFS has been dreadful as of late.

[Banbury]

13 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

I hate coming in here first thing in the morning in case it's gone titts up . But ECM consistent with last nights run. 

GEFS has got so very cold runs in too ?

It has but less so I M O

[john mac]

I can’t see the models getting a hold on the situation until Sunday which I believe is the day ssw occurs. Think I might take a break until Monday morning.

[Daniel*]

20 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Is this not just the ECM over amplifying everything again?

We have always seemingly ended up with a blended solution this winter. Great 144 charts slowly downgrading through the near reliable and ending with typical winter weather (cool, wet at times).

The coldest week this winter in the SE we were told! Yes we were -4.4c to start yesterday but we ended up with a max of 6.7c. Even synoptics that are regarded as pretty special no longer seem to deliver for us, I am not expecting any different this time around.  

I’m fairly certain no, if so GFS would also be guilty of this of late it’s been putting out some very extensive blocking runs. The 00z while nondescript again is interesting, ECM ensembles of last night certainly had decent support for it broadly. I actually think the general theme will be near the mark EC has some continuity of a burst of amplification. With the last cold spell the uppers were watered down -8C generally isn’t that cold. Sub -10c and then things are interesting.

[That ECM]

4 minutes ago, john mac said:

Think I might take a break until Monday morning.

Yeah right, good luck with that one I would trust the gfs more than one of us lot not checking the models for 3 days!

Edited February 9, 2018 by That ECM

[Daniel*]

3 minutes ago, john mac said:

I can’t see the models getting a hold on the situation until Sunday which I believe is the day ssw occurs. Think I might take a break until Monday morning.

They’re trying I don’t think this suggests a guessing game to me, ECM day 10 from 12Z and 00Z overall theme very close indeed Euro low and amplification of N Atlantic sector.

[nick sussex]

Your quick look at the big 3.

The ECM good no phasing dramas.

The UKMO okay upto T168hrs, unfortunately our view at that timeframe is restricted but its better than the GFS.

The GFS utter crap, phasing with low near the UK and upstream trough.

The phasing issue is why I was less then enthused with last nights outputs.  Early energy separation will increase the margin for error so that low near the UK needs to detach from the upstream trough.

 

Edited February 9, 2018 by nick sussex

[bluearmy]

Not surprised to see ec ridge further east and tending ne this morning - the 12z eps at day ten really didn’t allow for a big surface high over greeny 

and whilst the ec mean this morning is ridgy to our nnw, there is stil plenty upstream forcing from the Canadian sector which makes the current gfs week 2 theme plausible 

of course this could just be the eps slow to come on board with the higher res op in this unusual situation. I suspect it’s more to do with the general unpredictability of the response to the SSW 

 

[Radiating Dendrite]

11 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I’m fairly certain no, if so GFS would also be guilty of this of late it’s been putting out some very extensive blocking runs. The 00z while nondescript again is interesting, ECM ensembles of last night certainly had decent support for it broadly. I actually think the general theme will be near the mark EC has some continuity of a burst of amplification. With the last cold spell the uppers were watered down -8C generally isn’t that cold. Sub -10c and then things are interesting.

All the blocky GFS runs have been in lala land though. It throws out these scenarios daily, people are just jumping on these because of the SSW event. 

As has been said, SSW is not the golden ticket to cold. It just offers help but no guarantee, similar to many other teleconnections.

[supernova]

Fascinating watching the models come to terms with the effects of the SSW....the evolution seems clear for a moment then goes all foggy again! Still favouring a Greenie high but too early to be concerned about where the blocking might become established exactly. More worrying for me is the lack of deep cold in either direction. Steve Murr said last night (I think) about needing -11’s or better to avoid anything marginal and I’m not sure where such cold uppers are coming from. We’ve had -8’s over us often this winter and it’s hardly been a nationwide snowfest (great for some obvs but certainly not all). For example I look at the ECM’s take on the next ten days and think GREAT only to look at the 850 temps and begin to wonder where those beyond marginal cold temperatures will originate from. Jus’ sayin’.

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

29 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I wouldn't worry too much about 1 individual GFS run.....I'm more interested in the ECM/UKMO take on things, as the GFS has been dreadful as of late.

The whole GFS suite appears to have trended milder in the extended period this morning though with none of the runs (except a rogue one) flatlining near the -10 mark when yesterday this was the case.

Not saying it's right in fact I am pretty sure and certainly hoping it isn't but the GFS trend is not your friend this morning if you are of a cold or snowy persuasion.

[Daniel*]

5 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

All the blocky GFS runs have been in lala land though. It throws out these scenarios daily, people are just jumping on these because of the SSW event. 

As has been said, SSW is not the golden ticket to cold. It just offers help but no guarantee, similar to many other teleconnections.

Not really...that is 12Z of yesterday in FI but it’s not unreasonable in the slightest. It doesn’t generally throw out these scenarios consistently on deterministic not at all, we tend to see a few good ones in ENS but OP is run at a higher resolution and how many times have we seen HLB over the days. 

Edited February 9, 2018 by Daniel*

[Frosty.]

The Ecm is still my favourite model as it's showing what I want to see!

[nick sussex]

Just to explain what I mean by energy separation in case people are thinking whats going on!

These are the ECM day 7,8 and 9 charts.

So in the first one you have the UK low and you can see low heights connect this with the upstream trough, if you don't get that separation the ECM would drag the upstream trough further east so think of it as a car towing another along.

ECM day 7:

Now as you can see in the day 8 chart you've cleared that attachment from the UK so the upstream trough cant get that tow over the UK, the ridge gets ahead of it.

As an amplifying   shortwave runs east across Canada on day 9 it then attaches to the PV lobe which has a pivot action again pulling the PV back and allowing the ridge to get pushed ne ahead of it.

Edited February 9, 2018 by nick sussex