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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

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5 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

Wait what... Are we getting excited again, I thought it was the 18th now it's the 21st or even 24th for the cold blast? :D

of march or april:p

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9 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Bonkers gfs run. From this to this in 3 days ;) ūüėā

20180212_170624.jpg

20180212_170655.jpg

Yes, an ice day on the 24th, but then in the upper teens by the 28th!

A sobering reminder of what can happen if an eastern block doesn't allign itself in a way that shuts the Mediterranean air out.

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add IKON to the list-

AE9C11B3-D39F-4CFE-B5D0-70541C256694.thumb.png.4febfd5f43692851011f050854b0f53e.png

 

Expecting ECM To come kicking & screaming tonight...

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Don't worry about the extreme warmth at the end of the Op run, lets get the cold in first - which if supported by the ENS could still be in around a week.  The Op will be a crazy warm outlier for deep FI warmth, lets hope not for the medium range deep freeze!!!  As Steve Murr has said, I now expect the ECM to flip cold.

Edited by Ali1977
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144. 18th February. That's where the blocking begins to develop, 18th is where we start the transition.

5a81cd268fb49_Control144.thumb.png.646e06ad4390d12239aaef4276434950.png

Control run following the OP, heights building North-Eastwards over the UK, low pressure dropping Southwards around the Eastern side of the block and heights lowering over the med. 

Keep an eye on the 18th as each run comes in.

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GEFS much more amplified at T+162 (12z vs 6z).

gens-21-1-162.png

gens-21-1-168.png

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The end of the run isnt implausible of course. We have a reverse flow pulling those lows into the Atlantic from Russia re-orientating the northern blocking and stopping retrogression to Greenland. Sometimes an extreme reverse flow can work against and let's be honest this an extreme SSW

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I'm liking the consistency between the Op and Control out to 180.

Op gfsnh-0-180.png?12 Control gensnh-0-1-180.png

 

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4 minutes ago, mulzy said:

GEFS much more amplified at T+162 (12z vs 6z).

gens-21-1-162.png

gens-21-1-168.png

Something starting to firm up with regards SSW fallout - I really think by next Tue/Wed we'll start seeing snow showers coming in from the East.

Edited by Ali1977
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Just now, Ice Day said:

I'm liking the consistency between the Op and Control out to 180.

Op gfsnh-0-180.png?12 Control gensnh-0-1-180.png

 

I would not be surprised if the cold was brought in a lot earlier in the next few runs!!!seems that way this evening!!the mean looks lovely at 168 hours which means theyre should be some better runs than the op and control!!

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10 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Something is afoot

Something is even more afoot now after that Gfs 12z!:shok::cold-emoji:

Edited by Frosty.
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GEFS looking good

- 1030mb mean high over Scandi from D7 now

- still there by D12

- the rest of the run coming out as I write but looks like it might hold on till the end

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Control at 264, even better than the Op?

gensnh-0-1-264.png gensnh-0-0-264.png

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This is an absolutely incredible T-264 mean

MEAN.thumb.png.64a3ab116bedc84ccf728529534b65a3.png

Control follows OP to boomtown

COntrol.thumb.png.2246f9f8a888547b48ee3bc5b46c2768.png
 

Can I just check with the "following every model as gospel" group that winter is back on again? 

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Oh the joys of a trigger shortwave ! :D

Thats what the GFS has and so if this is the correct evolution then strap yourselves in!

For those of a nervous disposition look away, beta blockers at the ready!

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9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Wow!

Some big upgrades on the GFS and UKMO.

We can safely say that the models aren't to be trusted before an SSW, its no coincidence that we've seen these changes post the SSW.

I'd expect the ECM to follow these given its already made an embarrassing climbdown and its later output of previous days was destined for the cat litter tray.

Not after day 6 nick

lets see what ecm op makes of that T168 ridge in the 12z output .......

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1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

Control at 264, even better than the Op?

gensnh-0-1-264.png gensnh-0-0-264.png

All it needs to do is avoid the daft realignments of the 12z by keeping the LPs pinned south as they should be giving the SSW forcing.

Had the operational consolidated the blocking to the NW going forward from the below... need I say more?

h850t850eu.png

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Pick of the GFS ensembles 

gens-0-1-264.thumb.png.a218febc76a72afb8409ed0ec54a9f77.pnggens-3-1-264.thumb.png.bc95937b0f25a726cb957ade5a98ce49.pnggens-4-1-264.thumb.png.5a4871af47cd940b361e36e6e5024754.png

gens-7-1-264.thumb.png.bb34b9ea1d5692a3e9bd5fde90d5f1af.pnggens-15-1-264.thumb.png.5155b124d42f46b7d79886d8c9264b1e.pnggens-19-1-264.thumb.png.c801b1ccf49e698045ba620858b526ad.png

I'm fully expecting the ECM to go the same route this evening. 20 minutes until lift off

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Btw, individual gefs members post day 8 running low res in a reverse flow environment - not to be trusted - use the mean as a guide 

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The Gfs 12z op gives us a brief freeze followed by balmy southerlies and an early BBQ..amazing run...would like a prolonged freeze of course!!:D

12_360_mslp850.png

12_384_uk2mtmp.png

12_384_mslp850.png

Edited by Frosty.
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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Btw, individual gefs members post day 8 running low res in a reverse flow environment - not to be trusted - use the mean as a guide 

Sure - day 15 not too shabby though!

gensnh-21-1-360.png

 

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5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Btw, individual gefs members post day 8 running low res in a reverse flow environment - not to be trusted - use the mean as a guide 

Yep - and the mean has us in -6c uppers next Wed/Thurs.  We even have a -14c upper run (P20) ,I can't post the picture but has anyone seen a better looking chart than 384 on P20, EXCEPTIONAL.

Edited by Ali1977
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As always the GFS is in the extended 'guess-work' range. It'll be just another wasted hike up the garden path.

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The gfs still manages to muck it up with a highly unlikely FI but at day 13 plus I suppose it can  be forgiven for losing the plot. Of course a very encouraging run in the earlier stages with quite a potent and snowy easterly. What we want to see now is model inter run consistency with all three converging on the same synoptics.

Just one day out but it looks as if today is the day when the models start to show some consistent downwelling effects from the strat into the troposphere ( don't let us down EC). Ens should  be make for some great viewing tonight I would of thought.

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