Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

[bobbydog]

not many would miss out on this run-

[That ECM]

T120 plus JFF but this is a fun gfs to view 

[ICE COLD]

What a run GFS 12z . I think that is one of the best runs we have had so far ?. Look at these beauties 

[karlos1983]

5 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

not many would miss out on this run-

All of a sudden today just got a lot better after a quite terrible early Afternoon!

Would be nice to see the ECM follow that up! Not much to ask surely? 

 

[Met4Cast]

The cold spell begins developing as early as 144 on the GFS with heights building Northwards in the Atlantic

The UKMO is remarkably similar to the GFS at the same timeframe..

Would probably go on to produce something similar.

[Singularity]

I don't usually bother with these but I find it amusing how even in this setup GFS manages to find a way to show a transition back to rain for a time across the far south due to an unusually broad low over W. Europe during the preceding days (19th-20th);

 

Anyway back to the more reliable (very much relatively speaking!) charts;

A large pebble in an unusually sluggish stream. Pretty neat and this is with that Euro trough having not behaved as well as it could have.

Balmy Spain while NE and C Europe freeze... and then the second phase of the SSW slams down and things get even more dramatic.

I'm looking forward to plenty more of these weird and wonderful charts to come during the fortnight ahead .

[ICE COLD]

And we end the run with a stonking high pressure shooting right into Greenland . 

[SMU]

This is what one expects as the polar regions 'fill up'

[karlos1983]

1 hour ago, chapmanslade said:

Indeed so.

I've just returned from a Met Office open day tour at Exeter and the topic came up there. The forecaster I spoke to was suggesting a 70% chance of cold / Easterly at the beginning of next week which he said was a very high percentage certainty at that range, whilst emphasising there is still the other 30%. He was also showing the 'London Model' 333m output but cautioned that in terms of improving model resolution the limit was quantity of input data rather than computing power. Still the current 4 day accuracy is the same as the 1 day accuracy from the early 80's.

 

Talk about nailed it! Haha 

[Ravelin]

Of course it wont really happen, of could it? This would be some week..

 .

Pretty much a 6 day snowy  Easterly.

 

[Frosty.]

Sensational Gfs 12z with a prolonged very cold Ely filled with snow showers and then ending with a bitter NEly incoming, now that would make most of us very happy!

Edited February 10, 2018 by Frosty.

[E17boy]

If only Michael Fish could do this weeks BBC Forecast

"Apparently a lady called in earlier to the BBC saying she had heard there was a big freeze on the way. Well if your listening don't worry there isn't, but having said that there will be some pretty cold air just across in Europe..,........,,

????? bless 

will definately be game on then 

 

[karlos1983]

What a shame that run ended. I know major fl, but JFF it would have been something to behold watching that drop, which is exactly where that was heading!

Pretty nice panel at +192, cushty ?

 

Edited February 10, 2018 by karlos1983

[comet]

29 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Remember a few hours ago when everyone was a little downbeat at the poor overnight/morning model runs? Well..

Probably the best run from the GFS yet, very smooth transition, no headaches, cracker of a run

Yes.even one or two of the more experienced and knowledgeable members were getting flustered by a couple of rogue runs.

Winter is most definitely on the way.

[Daniel*]

As GFS ended it took me back to 2010 I’d be satisfied with what come before it can’t be that greedy but I wouldn’t say no. 

 

[karlos1983]

Control wants to play as well

i think I need a sit down 

 

Edited February 10, 2018 by karlos1983

[Frosty.]

What a run, just like some of the recent GEFS..at last we get an op showing the full potential of the SSW!

[SMU]

GFS mean out to day 15-

reverse flow across the whole of Europe out to Greenland - in tune with the progression post record breaking warming-

[SMU]

Control has 'filled up'

-6 AO

[chionomaniac]

Comes in, has a little look at the 12Z GFS and has a little chuckle to himself.

 

[Rayth]

5 minutes ago, mother nature rocks said:

Heads up full time posters!!

Can you PLEASE get your phones on charge as this has the potential (lol) to be the most interesting winter weather for many a year and your updates are very much appreciated and us lurkers/ part time posters don’t want to miss a trick..cheers!! 

That GFS was sublime the UKMET not to shabby. Would be nice if ECM sorted itself out in half hour and gives us another That ECM.

MNR

If the control run verified with its -15 uppers then we’d have no power and four foot snow drifts  and would have to get a hamster in a wheel to charge our phones !! 

[ITSY]

I knew I was saving my 1,000th post for something special...an op and control double whammy. 

My only slight concern is that most of the ens don’t follow this pattern, at least not to the same degree. If the ECM is on Board my excitement will grow...

 

[lorenzo]

A quicker way to take a view across the ensemble suite of potential Greenland height rises, couple of corkers in there !!

[Singularity]

 

Interesting that the control came close to the GEM 12z; the only real difference is that the Atlantic trough is further west.

Fact is though, such broad, rounded trough formation rarely lasts more than a day under strong HLB setup; disruption with some of it heading int Europe and the rest either fleeing west or decaying in place is usually quick to occur. So we'd be unlucky to face the prospect of being unlucky.

All of that is of course based on the HLB establishing - something we still won't be able to expect with total confidence even if ECM jumps on board this evening (but even so, I will be at risk of grinning my head into two halves if it does).

[Summer Sun]

00z the control was around 0 12z it gets down to around -13

Edited February 10, 2018 by Summer Sun