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Spring 2018 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

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5 Weeks until winter ends and keeping in line with last years thread I think now is the right time to open the spring 2018 thread

The weather company have today issued their latest 3 monthly forecast, which covers March and April

Quote

 

European Seasonal Outlook: The Weather Company Expects Warmer-than-Normal Pattern to Continue in Europe into Spring

Jan 23, 2018

Wet and Windy Conditions Expected Across Northern Europe, Drier Southern Europe

Andover, MA, 23 January 2018 – For the aggregate February-April period, The Weather Company, an IBM Business, is forecasting above-normal temperatures for most of Europe, with slightly below-normal temperatures confined to parts of southwest Europe, including Iberia. Precipitation is expected to be above normal across the north and below normal across the south.

“While the major energy-demand centers of the eastern U.S. and east Asia have experienced a cold winter so far, the atmospheric pattern has not favored persistent cold in Europe,” said Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist with The Weather Company. “And most of the meteorological evidence suggests that this dearth of cold will continue through the remainder of winter into early spring, as the type of ‘blocking’ needed to get cold in Europe will likely not materialize.”

For the February-April 2018 period, The Weather Company is forecasting the following temperatures:

February

  • Nordic region – Warmer than normal
  • U.K. – Warmer than normal
  • Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
  • Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except Iberia

March

  • Nordic region – Warmer than normal
  • U.K. – Warmer than normal
  • Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
  • Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except southwest

April

  • Nordic region – Warmer than normal
  • U.K. – Warmer than normal
  • Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except southern Denmark/France
  • Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except central

 

https://business.weather.com/news/european-seasonal-outlook-the-weather-company-expects-warmer-than-normal-pattern-to-continue-in-europe-into-spring?utm_campaign=&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

 

 

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Some pleasant early warmth this year please.

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Recent Aprils ending in "8" have tended to have a notable snowfall and not especially mild.

2008, 1998, 1978, 1968, 1958, 

Even 1988 was close to average. Going further back 1938, 1918 and 1908 were not mild affairs.

 

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Was this forecast written by a five-year-old? or a re———d?

 

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2 hours ago, Nick L said:

Some pleasant early warmth this year please.

Last year certainly delivered on that front. We had a 6.1C February and then the warmest spring in the CET record!

The weather company forecast last year went for March and April to both be colder than normal, so by that reckoning from this year's forecast we're in for a cold, snowy one most likely. :cold:

On a personal note, I've not had any measurable snow in 5 years, so unless February delivers I won't be too bothered if March delivers on that front. Just so long as its a varied spring and not all mild all the way through like 2009. That was a boring one.

Edited by reef

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A march 2012, a April 07 and a May 08 will do me just nicely.

Spring is when i like my summer weather.

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I'll go for a March 2012 and an April 2011; May-August can be a pick-and-mix from 1975, '76, '95, and with a wee dash of 2003 and 2006 thrown in, for good measure...Not asking for much, I know!:D

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If it’s a new trend set in stone spring is the new season of joyfullness when one can look forward to high pressure settling around the British isles with sunshine in abundance. 

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A much as I like summer spring is a season I always look forward to with the days lengthening the spring bulbs giving an abundance of colour and the 1st hints of heat sometimes during April

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A sense of nature seeing something nearby out there. The bird songs certainly giving it away:)

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Ah....that Summer of 2007,such fond memories,didn't get hot once..Lovely:)

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Spring 2008 was an interesting one around here. Late season snowfalls, early season heat and home grown thunderstorms in early May. They're my favourite type of springs. The homogeneous ones are the worst.

 

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1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

Spring 2008 was an interesting one around here. Late season snowfalls, early season heat and home grown thunderstorms in early May. They're my favourite type of springs. The homogeneous ones are the worst.

 

Yes! Loved the convective nature of the whole Spring (only the cloudy easterly spell in mid May was tedious). Shame the summer went belly up in July and August.

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Spring doesn't usually arrive here until May..March and April are a continuation of winter..last April was particularly dull and cold..May is the most extreme month i find..often temperatures can swing between +30c and below freezing in a matter of 24 hrs and then back the other way.

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On 24/01/2018 at 17:19, D.B. said:

Was this forecast written by a five-year-old? or a re———d?

 

Dont matter how  you put in the blanks thats still not a word i want to see. I'll  keep to myself what id like to call you. And hit the ignore button. 

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Daffodil shoots beginnining to appear in my garden. 

Just hoping for some sustained,  pleasant weather.  Especially after the abomination that was last Sumner (away from the SE), the UK deserves a break really.

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20 hours ago, snowsummer said:

Dont matter how  you put in the blanks thats still not a word i want to see. I'll  keep to myself what id like to call you. And hit the ignore button. 

knock-out-emoji.png

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I’ve just realised/remembered that today is the cross quarter day of Imbolc... The day when we leave the solar winter (the dark part of the year) and say hello to spring! :rolleyes:

*looks out of the window at the grey skies and rain* *sigh*

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Come onnnnn Spring.

 

Looking for those first signs now. Nothing really of note bar a few daffodil shoots.

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March and April outlook from weather online

Unsettled March? Better April

Issued: Monday 29th January 2018
Duty forecasters: Simon Keeling & Garry Nicholson

Quote

*March*
Current ideas for March support a fairly average start to the month. There will be some rain to the north and west.
However, the jet stream is expected to become established and this
wil tend to bring a wetter month overall with bands of rain and strong winds sweeping from west to east.
A tendency for Ireland and the southern half of the UK to see the wettest weather.

*April*
An improvement in conditions early in April.
Becoming drier and brighter with higher pressure building.

Than not a bad month overall with drier weather and warm too.

Simon Keeling

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/seasonal-outlook.htm

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I'm not a fan of Spring or Autumn and as far as I'm concerned they shouldn't be seasons. To me they are just transition periods between the two main seasons Winter and Summer, a bit like leaving a cold room to go into a warm room.

Weatherwise I'm hoping it would be cold and snowy in March then dry and sunny warm later on. A bonus player this Spring is La Nina is heading towards ENSO neutral which increases the chance of dryer and warmer weather.    

 

Edited by - 40*C

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Early look at Spring 2018 from TWO

 

Quote

 

Wet or dry?

The precipitation signal is mixed. The C3S combined mean suggests close to average amounts of rain but it covers up differences between the Meteo France, ECWMF and UK Met Office components. They break down like this:

Meteo France compared to the average: Drier in the south and wetter in the north.
ECWMF compared to the average: Drier in the north west and close to normal in the south.
UK Met Office compared to the average: Wetter in the north west but no signal in much of the south and east.

The Jamstec model suggests a drier than average spring in the north west and a close to normal one elsewhere. The
latest International Research Institute (IRI) update has anomalies varying across the UK and doesn't offer clear guidance.

Summary

At this stage above average temperatures during April and May are expected to be enough to offset the below average ones considered likely in March. The precipitation signal is weaker and inconsistent between seasonal models.

Tentative suggestions for this spring are:

1) Over the 3 month period temperatures are more likely to be above average than below average

2) The rainfall signal is weak

3) Despite the likelihood of above average temperatures over the three month period, there is an increased probability of colder conditions early in the spring

 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=hpnews&id=4190&title=Spring+2018+weather

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Latest 3 monthly outlook from the weather company covering March to May

Quote

European Seasonal Outlook: Transition to Sharply Colder Conditions in March

Feb 20, 2018

Stratospheric Polar Vortex Breakdown Will Favor Extended Cold

Andover, MA, 19 February 2018 – For the aggregate March-May period, The Weather Company, an IBM Business, is forecasting below-normal temperatures for most of mainland Europe and Scandinavia, with slightly below-normal temperatures especially later in the spring across the U.K. and southern Europe.  Precipitation is expected to be above normal across northern Europe and Iberia and below normal across southeastern Europe.

“Just when we had almost given up on the idea of a polar vortex split or breakdown in the stratosphere, it finally happened last week,” said Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist with The Weather Company. “The result will likely be an extended period of cold and dry weather across much of Europe, with warmer and wetter weather confined to parts of southern Europe. This will be the first period of extended North Atlantic blocking in about 5 years, so the change should be quite noticeable.”

For the March-May 2018 period, The Weather Company is forecasting the following temperatures:

March

  • Nordic region – Colder than normal
  • U.K. – Colder than normal
  • Northern Mainland – Colder than normal
  • Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal south, colder than normal north


April

  • Nordic region – Warmer than normal
  • U.K. – Warmer than normal
  • Northern Mainland – Cooler than normal south, warmer than normal north
  • Southern Mainland – Cooler than normal, except far east


May

  • Nordic region – Warmer than normal west, cooler than normal east
  • U.K. – Warmer than normal
  • Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except far east
  • Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except far east
1

https://business.weather.com/news/seasonal-outlook-transition-to-sharply-colder-conditions-in-march

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