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The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards


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Anyone with a macro lens needs to go and photograph the amazing snowflakes falling right now. This is the best i can do

So, both hi res models over which whose territory this system is evolving - Hirlam and Arpege (both I would have a lot of respect for) - have very decent accumulations forecast by Friday morning from

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Just now, shaky said:

Been snowing in south east leicester for about 15 mins now!!

And by looking at the radar its quite a large are of precipitation. Then a heavier one in an hour or two will hit Leicester. Hopefully follow into Coventry then :)

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9 hours ago, PolarWarsaw said:

NTGood evening all, 

Some of you may or may not remember me. Been locked out of my account for almost 2 years to the day having lost my password. With what's going on currently I couldn't help but find a way of getting back into my account again. Regardless, I have still watched and lurked as a guest virtually every single run since last October. 

Hello mate, welcome back. I suspect you did quite well off the NW'erly a couple weeks back.

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Admittedly it is disappointing when you expect a dumping and get a dusting, or even nothing. However, we are only just starting day 1 of a 4+ day spell of "potentially" snowy weather. There is already light snow falling across the region and the showers should get heavier and more widespread through today. Even if our region does miss out on a deep covering of snow it does not mean the forecast "Beast from the east" was a failure. Some parts of the UK will get battered, I am sure of it. All parts of the UK will feel absolutely bitter by tomorrow and Thursday.

Regarding the disparaging forecasts on the low for the end of the week/weekend. Would this not be expected at 3+ days out? There are several different runs of multiple models, some of which we don't even have access to. It is not unusual for them to churn out differing outputs. The Met Office will be using the best data to give an overall view, but the final outcome will likely be different. Look at last nights snow, this was originally due to just graze me as it impacted to my south, in reality it has missed me to the north!

Of course we all want it to fall favourable for ourselves, I am the same, but I personally am still excited by the "probability" of some exciting weather.

Much prefer this to cloud and drizzle or rain, rain and more rain :)

 

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The beast from the east never delivers for coventry and surrounding areas we had a light dusting of snow just now and now the met office and bbc have removed the snow symbols for us regarding the potential snow event friday into sat lol...thank god we had 15cms back in december otherwise this would be another pants winter

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1 minute ago, Cov87 said:

The beast from the east never delivers for coventry and surrounding areas we had a light dusting of snow just now and now the met office and bbc have removed the snow symbols for us regarding the potential snow event friday into sat lol...thank god we had 15cms back in december otherwise this would be another pants winter

Don't panic, we're going to get more Snow this morning. Its pepping up on the radar and heading this way. Guarantee it :)

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Just now, Brrrrr! said:

Don't panic, we're going to get more Snow this morning. Its pepping up on the radar and heading this way. Guarantee it :)

To be honest was more intrested in the potential snow event for the end of the week it went from giving us a good dumping to now missing us totally

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1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Light covering in Dudley  and snowing. Potential for today is better than yesterday  fingers crossed 

Look at those showers heading straight for us. Also a dusting over night and steady snow falling now. Good chance of Snow from Thursday into Sunday with cold air lasting longer. Better day than yesterday in my books hope for more upgrades.

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Been snowing moderately for the last half hour on ahrewsbury after waking to a dusting. We are just under a stream of snow coming from NE on radar while Telford isn’t. Shows how a few miles might make a difference today. Might pile up a couple of CM before lunch. 

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15 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

only sugar dusting, so yes, few flakes coming down again

GFS been trending away from Fridays snow, missing us way to the west, more SW/Ireland event

Yes, Friday seems to be looking less and less promising now...

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1 hour ago, wednesburybaz said:

i never even had to scrape the car this morning so no frost in wednesbury at all

 

Apparently that is typical of this particular kind of 'convective snow' - because the air is very dry, there's not much ice formed. 

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A pleasant dusting this morning.

Sat in the office listening to people who have no idea how the weather works, giving their "opinion". Now I am no expert, but these people are giving out some right old rubbish. Very tempting to walk over and give them a lecture. One of the senior managers saying the forecasters "have it easy these days" and "need to try harder" because their "wildly inaccurate forecasts are a joke and unacceptable".

Grr. They don't have the slightest idea how complicated it is and all the hard working people doing their best to keep people like them safe with the best forecast possible! :fool:

 

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1 hour ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Seeing as the beast has really only just arrived, I'm going to give it a bit more of a chance, I think we'll be surprised at some point :-)

Not to mention that the Beast has always been about cold, first and foremost, with potential for snow a secondary thing resulting from that cold. 

I think I must have been reading a completely different Model thread, one in which the discussions were about the cold pool first, and possible snow second... :)

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1 hour ago, snowstorm27x said:

Strange all models show snow 

Probably because all models are able to tell that there is a strong potential for snow but are very well-known to be poor at predicting the extent of convective snow on an easterly. 

Snow forecasts are NOT reliable in this set-up. None of them. 

Hence why there are wider warning-areas with low certainty. If it lands on your head, then you have snow, basically... :)

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6 minutes ago, BleakMidwinter said:

Not to mention that the Beast has always been about cold, first and foremost, with potential for snow a secondary thing resulting from that cold. 

I think I must have been reading a completely different Model thread, one in which the discussions were about the cold pool first, and possible snow second... :)

The "beast" arrived here 36 hours ago and will be gone in about 70 hours. We are already about 30% of the way through this cold spell and so far we have had dustings that are all gone when the sun comes out. No dressing that up, its disgraceful.

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4 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

The "beast" arrived here 36 hours ago and will be gone in about 70 hours. We are already about 30% of the way through this cold spell and so far we have had dustings that are all gone when the sun comes out. No dressing that up, its disgraceful.

think we had ours in Dec, someone else's turn now maybe, 

poor winter again compared to childhood 80'-90's, but not bad for the large teapot, 

next best event 2cms evening of 11th, Feb gone by afternoon of 12th, few other wet snow events but pants really

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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7 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

The "beast" arrived here 36 hours ago and will be gone in about 70 hours. We are already about 30% of the way through this cold spell and so far we have had dustings that are all gone when the sun comes out. No dressing that up, its disgraceful.

"The beast" is an area of high pressure cold... why would you expect so much snow ?. It was always about cold, not snow. Snow is just a potential side effect for any light precip hanging around the high pressure area. If it was a low pressure system then sure, expect a tonne of snow. 

 

 

Edited by kmanmx
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