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The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

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5 hours ago, davehsug said:

I've never been able to understand this keenness for North Easterlies. I've seen many flows switch from East to North East & the outcome is always the same. Raised dewpoints, thick cloud & very cold rain or sleet.

The difference this time is those mammoth cold uppers! Some model runs suggest we could see 850's of -15. There's no way rain or sleet would fall in that situation, not even on the coast! Still a fair way off yet though and there doesn't look to be much PPN around for the Midlands.

Edited by andy_leics22

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4 hours ago, andy_leics22 said:

The difference this time is those mammoth cold uppers! Some model runs suggest we could see 850's of -15. There's no way rain or sleet would fall in that situation, not even on the coast! Still a fair way off yet though and there doesn't look to be much PPN around for the Midlands.

We'll see, it's just what the years have taught me.

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29 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Gem carries on yesterday`s mega charts.

Rgem1921.gif

A 'GEM' of a chart ;)

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7 hours ago, andy_leics22 said:

The difference this time is those mammoth cold uppers! Some model runs suggest we could see 850's of -15. There's no way rain or sleet would fall in that situation, not even on the coast! Still a fair way off yet though and there doesn't look to be much PPN around for the Midlands.

I think you're wrong. the current set up is looking like central, east and southern England could get the best out of this easterly.  East Midlands especially would be among the best spots of the midlands area imo.

 

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Latest gfs an absolute stonker of a run including the control!!now whilst everyone is obviously interested in next week i think people have over looked how cold its going to feel from tomorrow evening. the euro4 over the next few days looks bitterly cold!!dew points at around -4 and thicknesses freezing cold!!that flow from the continent is sure gona have a bit umph to it!and thats with 850 temps of only -4!!

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5AA41123-FDF6-4130-BC54-F8B75E51D10C.thumb.png.7fdf2575e624f3894e7e6b4458d4f7c7.png

Some snow possibly next week? 🤞

Edited by Kieran

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2 hours ago, shaky said:

Latest gfs an absolute stonker of a run including the control!!now whilst everyone is obviously interested in next week i think people have over looked how cold its going to feel from tomorrow evening. the euro4 over the next few days looks bitterly cold!!dew points at around -4 and thicknesses freezing cold!!that flow from the continent is sure gona have a bit umph to it!and thats with 850 temps of only -4!!

agree with that, yes no mega beast, but don't need true beast for snow, hope for similar on 12Z, and the key one really EC 12Z, 'cos 00Z wasn't good

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Min last night here was 5.2 °C, max 7.4 °C. It might be quite some while before I can match those numbers again!

As for next week... I do wonder about snow. I'm sure we'll get some, but we're going to have to be lucky to get a lot. I have hazy memories of January 1987, and though it was certainly exceptionally cold, there wasn't a huge amount of snow in this part of the world. It was a different story further east, of course, but that was just something I saw on TV. Here in Worcestershire I recall a lot of dull, overcast, freezing but dry days with just a scattering of snow grains. There was some proper snow, but nothing staggering.

So, in terms of excitement in my back yard, I would rank Jan 1987 behind the likes of Feb 1991, Dec 2010 or even Dec 2017. A very different story if you lived in Kent, of course!

 

 

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I'm smiling as I read that because Jan '87 was my 18th birthday with quite a bit of snow, and me and my pals met up in town in one of the pubs in Edinburgh's Old town, in our pyjamas, with cuddly toys and pillows, obviously, to pile back to mine for a pyjama party... at some point we went outside for a snowball fight, up on a terrace walkway over the road at first-floor level - a few snowballs went astray and hit folk going in the next-door rival pub, who threw them back (as they thought) at the people going in our pub, and... well.. basically in a few minutes there were about sixty people having a snow-riot and then the police turned up with blues and twos, and those of us up on the terrace just quietly went off to another pub, returning just before last orders to collect our pillows and teddy-bears from behind the bar :D

We had to make our own entertainment in them days... 

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Surface cold from will soon chill things down,uppers are not low in the west.http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn962.html

Very calm today,could hear if anybody was swearing from a distance.

But surface temps will certainly will be very chilly.

12z looks much better.

 

 

Edited by Snowyowl9

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I see the model forum has descended to equivalent of two blokes on the street shouting 'leave it Dave, hes not worth it' despite some really impressive models, if not quite as stellar as previously. Get the cold in first!!!

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Hardly surprising. People allow themselves to get sucked in, egged on by the usuals, and when it all goes from amazing to ordinary, as it invariably does, the recriminations start. Maybe this time will be the exception to the rule, let's hope so!

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What's going on the model thread is so confusing this afternoon

The usual, Model promise some interesting weather ( ie big cold spell typically from the east) then do a u turn as we get closer, it usualy pans out as follows:

 

Models pick up on major winter event

several upgrades that seem to keep comming

as the 5 day marker approaches models start to moderate the extreme severe weather, or even change completely ( bye bye interesting weather)

all appears to be game over, with much gnashing of teeth

Models then do another slight u turn,, and we get a little bit of sleet, maybe a tiny bit of snow, but nothing on the scale of what was originally predicted,

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Wooohoo, look what Steve Murr just posted in the Model thread :D


"heavy snow tracking across the midlands to wales !"


 :D:D:D 

 

 

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16 hours ago, andy_leics22 said:

The difference this time is those mammoth cold uppers! Some model runs suggest we could see 850's of -15. There's no way rain or sleet would fall in that situation, not even on the coast! Still a fair way off yet though and there doesn't look to be much PPN around for the Midlands.

One of the positives of this being so late in the season is that the slightly increased energy of the sun can keep convection going even inland.  Relative humidity won’t be a problem with an airmass that recently travelled over a big body of water, so provided the lapse rates stay steep, even inland parts could see some pretty beefy snow showers.  

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2 hours ago, andy_leics22 said:

ECM today is a bit pants. Backtracked a lot since Monday but still a lot of changes yet!

ECMOPEU00_168_1.png

not now it aint!

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Full frikkin house!!what a morning!!!i remember bluearmy mention give it till this morning well guess what we here now and the charts look the same despite the little wobble we had 24 hours ago!!brilliant upgrades this morning!!

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Are we seeing snow storms now for 2nd/3rd March? Will be gutted as I'm out of the country then, what are the odds anything that has fallen sticks around until Monday?!

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 Sorry everybody ive jinxed everything............I just ordered a sledge for my son........really sorry

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Better from the models this morning, keeping the high further north and thus not pushing the coldest uppers into France, but towards British shores instead.

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