The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 hours ago, MattStoke said:

I think Friday and Sunday may bring wintry showers here. Snow symbols for Friday on the Met Office app.

Not bad for Friday AM, wind direction and thicknesses support snow, but milder for afternoon

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Not best direction for north of the region, but south Midlands seeing streamer likely running ENE from the mouth of the Severn, not sure I've ever seen a WSW'ly modelled this cold

 

[MattStoke]

GFS showing a persistent and strong Cheshire Gap streamer on Sunday.

Plenty more snow opportunities ahead. Just a shame we have the brief milder and wet spells in between.

[WalsallWeather123]

24 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

GFS showing a persistent and strong Cheshire Gap streamer on Sunday.

Plenty more snow opportunities ahead. Just a shame we have the brief milder and wet spells in between.

The potential is there but don't forget that in the GFS snow charts, sleet also shows as snow so its slighly misleading

[MattStoke]

Regional Met Office forecasts say snow showers on Friday and Sunday now.

Friday morning could be interesting. The ECM shows a fairly heavy and large area of precipitation crossing the Midlands in the early hours. -6 to -8 uppers at that time.

There is a MO warning for snow and ice in the NW Midlands tomorrow but it says the main risk is for ice. Wonder if we’ll see that updated. Their app has been increasing the snow risk.

[BarometerCat]

0c this morning and dry out. MO app for Leics/Warks has sleet tomorrow but guess will despond on actual temp v modelled and dew points. Also interesting week ahead for 'potential'

[weirpig]

21 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Regional Met Office forecasts say snow showers on Friday and Sunday now.

Friday morning could be interesting. The ECM shows a fairly heavy and large area of precipitation crossing the Midlands in the early hours. -6 to -8 uppers at that time.

There is a MO warning for snow and ice in the NW Midlands tomorrow but it says the main risk is for ice. Wonder if we’ll see that updated. Their app has been increasing the snow risk.

Indeed. Hi res hirlam 0z. We've seen some snow this year 

[weirpig]

Surely the Hirlam is off on one  two runs now where the Midlands gets blasted.  Infact its more snowy this run

[Diamond Joe]

I sorta of stopped looking earlier in the week when first the Tuesday potential and then the Thursday potential disappeared wheres this Friday and Sunday stuff come from seems an interesting turn of events?

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, Diamond Joe said:

I sorta of stopped looking earlier in the week when first the Tuesday potential and then the Thursday potential disappeared wheres this Friday and Sunday stuff come from seems an interesting turn of events?

After the Front Thursday  Models are bringing in a rash of showers on a North Westerly wind  Hirlam  seems to produce more of a organised front  just as the uppers drop.  Im Treating with caution   i expect to see a few showers maybe  as always time will tell

[shaky]

9 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Surely the Hirlam is off on one  two runs now where the Midlands gets blasted.  Infact its more snowy this run

00z run above looked more snowy mate!!?

[weirpig]

5 minutes ago, shaky said:

00z run above looked more snowy mate!!?

Possibly for Totals  however i think   the Hirlam  6z  keeps in the snowy condtions for longer  however  im not going to disagree about a little snow :0  the fact is this model  if it verifies  keeps us in with a shout.  which will add to an already very good winter  for most in this region   it about 6-7 hours of snow  some  heavy   not to bad

Edited February 8, 2018 by weirpig

[shaky]

11 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Possibly for Totals  however i think   the Hirlam  6z  keeps in the snowy condtions for longer  however  im not going to disagree about a little snow :0  the fact is this model  if it verifies  keeps us in with a shout.  which will add to an already very good winter  for most in this region   it about 6-7 hours of snow  some  heavy   not to bad

Could you post the charts for 11 am so i can compare both the 00z run and the 06z run!!sorry just driving lol!!

[Sweatyman]

Met weather warning for us west mids peeps for Friday. Just seen it now for snow and ice?

[weirpig]

8 minutes ago, shaky said:

Could you post the charts for 11 am so i can compare both the 00z run and the 06z run!!sorry just driving lol!!

Will do in a bit late   just sorting out a tricky tax return     Arome shows some beefy showers aswell

[Midlands Ice Age]

Another frost overnight with a low of -1.6C.

Snow still on the ground this morning, though it has now all melted and the temp is now rising at 5.3C with a strong SW Breeze and rain forecast for this pm. 

So now at 11 days of falling snow and 19 days of laying snow.

Getting to be a good winter.

MIA

[weirpig]

Ok For Shaky  And All  Hirlam from 24hours   excluding the one already posted for 25 hours

[weirpig]

And Arome  also shows  snow in our region  all in all looking good

[weirpig]

But Alas  the Euro 4  not really having much of it    shows some snow.  we shall see

[MattStoke]

MO warnings for tomorrow. 2-5 cm above 100 metres. Looks good for me then!

[weirpig]

12 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

MO warnings for tomorrow. 2-5 cm above 100 metres. Looks good for me then!

It does look good  I hate that Matrix   but on the Met Office website  the tick isnt there anymore  its the one to the right directly below the orange.  whatever importance that as.

[weirpig]

I Know i shouldnt take any notice of the apps etc  but it is really strange.  BBc has me at temps of 5c  with sleet  Meto  has me max of 1c  and snow for on and off   for 11 hours    no i know snow and temps are hard to forecast but...  That is one big difference.    

[shaky]

Leicester is included in the warning!!love it cant wait for my 2-5cms as long as it snows after my 6am run!!

[weirpig]

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Yellow warning — Snow & Ice  between Friday 00:05 and Friday 12:00See warning detail >

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Met  Office has me for this  BBC for Sleet   guess which one will be right.

Edited February 8, 2018 by weirpig

[shaky]

Looks light it starts of as rain for a while around east midlands before turning to snow!!rather have it that way than snow to rain lol!!