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The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards


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1 minute ago, weirpig said:

yes  I think it is more East  than predicted  Brugge on high alert?.:D

 

To be honest the Arpege has the eastern extent almost exactly bang on with the radar. It's about 50 miles north, but that is it more likely just arriving early.

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Anyone with a macro lens needs to go and photograph the amazing snowflakes falling right now. This is the best i can do

So, both hi res models over which whose territory this system is evolving - Hirlam and Arpege (both I would have a lot of respect for) - have very decent accumulations forecast by Friday morning from

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1 minute ago, kmanmx said:

To be honest the Arpege has the eastern extent almost exactly bang on with the radar. It's about 50 miles north, but that is it more likely just arriving early.

Where does Aperge take it later?

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10 minutes ago, 'ColdIsBest' said:

We don't get gritters for side streets.

Yeah, its wierd here. The only drivers that need to come down my street are the people that live here. It's not a through road, its a quiet suburban street. When it snows the gritter comes twice a day, it is a little hilly tho :)


Also, Cov Council want to spend their budget ;) So they get the same next year :D

Edited by Brrrrr!
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8 minutes ago, Uttoxeter snow said:

Am I right in thinking the band on the south coast is much further east and still moving north and building east as we speak, this wasn't what was forecast was it?

Was just going to mention that too and see opinions of others 

seems to be a lot further east than was predicted ??

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22 minutes ago, Brrrrr! said:

Ignore it, had more snow today than yesterday, and has been snowing all day here in Eastern Green. Lightly yes, but it deserves at least a cloud and 1 snowflake graphic..

The metoffice app has shown NO snow for the whole day... :D The app has no idea :D

We had no snow for today on app last night. Snowed most of day now updated till 23.00 tonight light snow has no ideas does it. tomorrow nothing but bbc has us snow Friday 14.00 to 02.00 really no clue at all.

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3 minutes ago, Gustywind said:

Where does Aperge take it later?

Aperge has it dying a death and not reaching the midlands apart from possibly Worcestershire and Hertfordshire

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1 minute ago, kmanmx said:

South west and into wales. Only the lighter stuff entering midlands.

 

This is the Eastern edge of the arpege    but very light.  we will see how much further East it goes.

arpege-1-6-0.png?01-11

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The latest radar returns show no eastward movement amd the main bulk of precip is directly south of coventry or west of it. With expected nw movement i wouldnt expect much for the midlands. 

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1 minute ago, gig1968 said:

I'm not buying it fizzles out before moving north. It's already further east then euro4 predicted.

Euro4 has pretty much been an abomination for earlier today though. It didn't show any snow anywhere in south England really.

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Just now, PolarWarsaw said:

What did the GFS show as it's progression throughout the rest of the day and it's PPN charts? 

GFS shows it slide northwest from here on which is what it is doing looking at the latest radar returns.

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3 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

What did the GFS show as it's progression throughout the rest of the day and it's PPN charts? 

GFS probably said it stays there until the next model run then jumps a bit.

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7 minutes ago, Paul Faulkner said:

Aperge has it dying a death and not reaching the midlands apart from possibly Worcestershire and Hertfordshire

This is the same Arpege that showed 15cms as far north as the south of Manchester and across to Derbyshire etc on the 12z yesterday though, which just goes to show the models have no clue. 

From all models and forecasts you can have a clear idea of the main plays of this system, BUT in terms of small IMBY semantics, as to whether it goes 50 miles east, north etc - then they are nowcasts. 

Please can we once and finally this afternoon, BIN APP or automated forecasts, they are less use than a chocolate fireguard that was erect in the middle of the desert.

Edited by PolarWarsaw
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I think our best hope as a region is that as it approaches it gives this light snow thats around a bit of a kick so we get something that give at least a complete covering from it. 

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Heavier snow now blowing into every knook and cranny you could think of.

Snow also froze on my face in the wind today.

Not advisable walking in a blizzard today.

Edited by Snowyowl9
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