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The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

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4 minutes ago, Dibdabbers said:

Gutting isnt it, Do you think the snow just to the south will eventually push through our snow shield?

I wouldn't be surprised if we do get something, but I wouldn't have thought it will be anything more than a few cms if that.  Certainly no where near what it was like in December 17 around these parts, but then again that really was an exceptional event.  One to keep an eye on, this afternoon we may get something slightly heavier if the showers don't dissipate before then.  I would expect Coventry perhaps moderate/heavy would get something this afternoon.

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I am pretty sure the forecast is for snow from mid afternoon onwards (currently way off south coast) which as far as i am aware was always the plan.

it may come up and pivot west or east as per current variations of forecast so again may still miss out in central / west / east mids

what is about currently (nothing for me) is a bonus and not forecast.

Not sure why people are so down beat unless i have missed something completely.

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Well its freezing in  Dudley   no snow as of yet.  But i suppose our chance comes later this afternoon when the more serious stuff starts pushing up   we shall see  if not  oh well  we had our spell in December  which was great.   Eyes on the Hirlam  its been the best model and predicting this so far 

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4 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Unbelievably Met Office still has me down as dry !!

Yes, M.O shows no snow here in Redditch until 4pm, even though it's already steady snow now, and covering the roads.

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3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Well its freezing in  Dudley   no snow as of yet.  But i suppose our chance comes later this afternoon when the more serious stuff starts pushing up   we shall see  if not  oh well  we had our spell in December  which was great.   Eyes on the Hirlam  its been the best model and predicting this so far 

Hirlam hasn't been great. Typical bias to a model just because it shows what you want to see

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2 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Moderate snow continuing here, and likely to get a bit heavier in the next hour. Exactly as Hirlam and Arpege were suggesting yesterday.

Real deal is currently showing over Brest and forecast to track north - that's what you need to keep an eye on later this afternoon. At present, everything seems a few hours ahead of most modelling. Unbelievably Met Office still has me down as dry !!

GP...

Been looking at Netweather Radar for 5mins.

It shows a bit of a pivot over Bham currently with the snow in East Anglia extending North, whilst the snow to the west of Bham is stationary   (at the moment!).

It also shows a heavier band to the south of you gradually moving northward.(Oxford to Peterborough).

Also it shows the snow just to the south of Bham and Coventry starting to pep up  (as per the last 2 days).

It looks to me as if we are still in the same situation as yesterday but with a stronger east wind pushing the convection more westward,a bit earlier than yesterday...

The 'goodstruff'  associated with Emma is still to make an appearance.

MKIA 

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Just now, WalsallWeather123 said:

Hirlam hasn't been great. Typical bias to a model just because it shows what you want to see

What!!!  it got the stuff over France bang on  Brought the front over the South earlier than other models predicted  which is exactly what we have  Take it you dont study models much?

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Lets see where we are mid afternoon before we all start throwing the towel in people come on, just cause its not right outside our windows right now doesnt mean its not be a significant spell on a wider level. How many times has there been two red alerts for weather with a rash of ambers and yellows

 

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Leicester folk and others in the "dry/empty gap", I know it's super frustrating, but lets chilllllllllllllllllll. This precipitation wasn't even due to be where it is currently for a few hours, and it's modelled to easily fill that gap later in the day. Apparently it should pep up later too. 

06z Hirlam and Arpege arrive soon, lets see what they have to say. But I am still quietly confident we will see some snow, even if it is difficult to watch the radar at the moment!

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Well the 06z gfs is a major downgrade even for those in the red warning area. Quite a big change. Hopefully its got things wrong.

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Still expecting nothing from Emma currently, however, this mornings event has dropped an unexpected 3-4CM's and because of that I'm not too frustrated that we look likely to miss out in the north of the region. 

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Just now, kmanmx said:

Leicester folk and others in the "dry/empty gap", I know it's super frustrating, but lets chilllllllllllllllllll. This precipitation wasn't even due to be where it is currently for a few hours, and it's modelled to easily fill that gap later in the day. Apparently it should pep up later too. 

06z Hirlam and Arpege arrive soon, lets see what they have to say. But I am still quietly confident we will see some snow, even if it is difficult to watch the radar at the moment!

Post those in here once there out if you can. 

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Just now, MKN said:

Well the 06z gfs is a major downgrade even for those in the red warning area. Quite a big change. Hopefully its got things wrong.

The GFS has been horrendous so far in fairness.

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1 minute ago, weirpig said:

What!!!  it got the stuff over France bang on  Brought the front over the South earlier than other models predicted  which is exactly what we have  Take it you dont study models much?

Agree not sure what this guy is seeing, but Hirlam and Arpege have been far more accurate with this than the other models. Not perfect, but not bad either.

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10cm in Derby. Still going, best snow in 5 years 

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Those moaning in Shopshire and Leicestershire don't be greedy you have had loads of decent snowfalls this winter this is the first real dumping we have had here and we have i would say between 20-25cm so far and still snowing.

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Well what can I say, this time yesterday I was virtually throwing my toys out the pram that an Easterly could let Nottingham down so bad.

How wrong was I, virtually snowing all night in Nottingham & still snowing lightly now, back garden when I left home had 5 inches of lying snow. Only downside I made it into work.

For those without snow panicking, I feel your pain but this event in Nottingham was not forecast at all, In fact on the drive home yesterday the last forecast I heard was showers dying out, how wrong were they. Everyone is still in the game, anything additional Nottingham now gets will be a bonus as little chance of the lying snow we now have disappearing anytime soon given the forecast cloud cover/tempertures we have for today & tomorrow

 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Moderate snow continuing here, and likely to get a bit heavier in the next hour. Exactly as Hirlam and Arpege were suggesting yesterday.

Real deal is currently showing over Brest and forecast to track north - that's what you need to keep an eye on later this afternoon. At present, everything seems a few hours ahead of most modelling. Unbelievably Met Office still has me down as dry !!

yeah agree, when you check out sat images there is alot coming out of Brest.

currently 17 to 22cm here on garden and drive,  up to 30 in drifts.

 

Just cleared patio, so should be able to see how much more we get :shok:.

 

can not believe how much the ppn coming off North Sea gave, and how far west it went

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1 minute ago, Derbyshire_snow said:

Those moaning in Shopshire and Leicestershire don't be greedy you have had loads of decent snowfalls this winter this is the first real dumping we have had here and we have i would say between 20-25cm so far and still snowing.

Not sure if serious. We had one snowfall of about 7 or 8cm which is the most we've had in about a decade, if not more.

Leicester folks being "greedy" with snow. I've heard it all now...lol

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This is the area we need to watch for later this evening and tonight. The further east that PPN gets/builds - the most the north and east of the region get in on the act. 

Eyes on this as the next few hours look very quiet.

IMG_6116.PNG

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18 minutes ago, Cov87 said:

Glimmer of hope??

Screenshot_20180301-092408.jpg

Steve Jackson and Shafali :) Coventry and Midlands Dream Team :D

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Well and truly in that special gap now where dreams are crushed. I Can't complain had some but not great amounts. Slightly annoying as that derby person says best snow in 5 years.  Haha I mean what we are like 5 miles away.

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2 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

You're just quoting Chris Fawkes lol, I take it you don't study models either. At least credit the guy lol. Anyway, will be a nowcast event

Lol  i was quoting GP actually  you mug   also  wasnt you who predicted this event wouldnt happen because a amateur told you   which drew howls of derision from the mad thread   also wasnt it you who kept harping on about  the icon then it went on to show rain wednesday gone.  ps  where in walsall do you live?.

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