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The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

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Upgrades, tomorrow/Friday is looking very interesting 

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Blizzards all day and only a dusting to show for it. Stupid sun.

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Somethings  got to give here  less than 24 hours away  and the Hirlam  and the Arpege  are going for heavy snow across the Midlands   Either they will back off by the 18z  or the Met will revise there warnings    Which one?? 

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1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Somethings  got to give here  less than 24 hours away  and the Hirlam  and the Arpege  are going for heavy snow across the Midlands   Either they will back off by the 18z  or the Met will revise there warnings    Which one?? 

Not just Arpege and Hirlam but also the GEM

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1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Somethings  got to give here  less than 24 hours away  and the Hirlam  and the Arpege  are going for heavy snow across the Midlands   Either they will back off by the 18z  or the Met will revise there warnings    Which one?? 

Most likely back off 

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1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Somethings  got to give here  less than 24 hours away  and the Hirlam  and the Arpege  are going for heavy snow across the Midlands   Either they will back off by the 18z  or the Met will revise there warnings    Which one?? 

Euro 4 will be interesting along with satellite imagery.

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Hirlam and Arpege accumulations by t48:

arpege-45-48-0.thumb.png.d093291abd555cc94653d4fea95c21f1.pnghirlam-45-48-0.thumb.png.d645b40dbf6e60d8713be1924858d88d.png

Both in the 15-20 cms bracket for most on raw model.

Need to temper this against more underwhelming Icon and Arome. GFS in the middle and more tilted towards more accumulation during Friday / Saturday.

Edited by Glacier Point

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8 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Blizzards all day and only a dusting to show for it. Stupid sun.

not bad here considering, 2 inches i'd say, way more eastern facing grass etc, stopped now perhaps still a little early, sun likely come out now

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Now -5  at 16:15 hrs, 3 heavy snow showers  to give about 3 inches  total,some lovely blue sky  at times,wind picking up  but not strong  .2miles north of Ashbourne 

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Just now, cyclonic happiness said:

Still minus 4.2'c!!   This must be the coldest day time temperature since 1990?

Any stats anyone?

Just done the school run in bedworth in that heavy shower -3.6 here 

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If the low makes it as far north of birmigham/coventry what time does the fun and games start?? Thursday evening??

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Today has overachieved massively compared to yesterday and the expectations earlier in the week. 

1 or 2 models are going to cover themselves in glory or be put firmly in the 'not going to bother using that model again' category come Friday evening. 

The Arpege and Hirlam look far too north and widespread accumulation and PPN wise IMO. Hope they are correct though. 

Enjoying what will be our last flurry today IMO, East Midlands and east anglia drying out now.

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hello - well its been the best day so far of this spell and when I say best day 30mins of blizzards, better than nothing, but I sometimes think its jsut a tease by the snow gods to say 'look what you could have won!!!'. The forecast today was showing nothing just shows you :)

Has anyone else noticed how the Met Office website is not updating as much today. makes me think the models are still not firmed up for Thursday, Friday and Saturday?

I do feel slightly better abuout things today, prams were going out of the pram this morning.

I promised the wife she would have a white birthday on Friday and that would be her present :) 

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@Glacier Point What are you thinking for Worcestershire (i am in Upton upon Severn, fairly near you I think) over the next few days GP? Looking at the Met and BBC latest forecasts we seem to be on the Eastern Edge of the precipitation with the heavy stuff missing us and going into wales and staying in the South West. Where would you anticipate to get hit the heaviest?

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Arome further west with its accumulations..

aromehd-45-42-0.thumb.png.083ea70067c9542252c0d3db55bbe6be.png

Still in the ball park, but west would be best.

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Incredible conditions here -- close to a white-out. From a bare dusting to a full covering on the lawn in about 10 minutes, and with winds that can't have been far off gale force. I could barely see the end of the road 100 yards away. Slackening off now, and radar suggests that's our lot for a bit, but what a way to end the afternoon!

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