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The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards


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Anyone with a macro lens needs to go and photograph the amazing snowflakes falling right now. This is the best i can do

So, both hi res models over which whose territory this system is evolving - Hirlam and Arpege (both I would have a lot of respect for) - have very decent accumulations forecast by Friday morning from

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5 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

In your opinion do you see Amber warnings being issued for West Midlands, do you expect further changes to warnings?:)

I dont know   All depends  what there models are seeing   the GFS is further West but northerly extent only gets to Brum ish  maybe slightly North   but is better than its 6z run  The Arpege is very special   

Edited by weirpig
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10 minutes ago, kmanmx said:

Generally the weather systems (especially North America) are much larger in scale. They have gained energy and strength over the entire pacific/atlantic ocean before hitting east coast america, which is why precipitation has no problem getting many hundreds of miles in land. I think their warmer waters feed the systems too which makes them bigger. As for France, I guess the same story, just they are generally affected by bigger systems ? though i'm not as sure.

Ofcourse when it comes to snow, the rain has no issues getting into the midlands...:fool:

Yeah I've wondered why rain has no problem crossing the uk from west to east without losing intensity but snow just stops and fizzles out before reaching the east mids.

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Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Yes better GFS, not far enough NE, but maybe trending that way

prectypeuktopo.png

Needs a good 50mile shift north east with little time for change now. Still you never know id expect to see something but if anyone hoping for something better than december its probably a long shot. 

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1 minute ago, Glacier Point said:

12z Arpege consistent with previous run:

arpege-45-44-0.thumb.png.abd5cc9fb3a7d31e059c6ebbe02c8fba.png

GFS slightly better aswell. Definitely west and south-west orientation to this one as it stands.

Leicester just about gets into the 10cm bracket aswell!looking good!!!whats friday lookin like GP?

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Just now, weirpig said:

Hirlam not backing down 22hrs away  it show this 

hirlam-1-25-0.png?28-17

Holy crap i got a feeling this is gona be way more widespread than models are predicting!by the way ive just had 5cms of snow today from on and off showers!!cant complain!!

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Ground blizzards here incredible against a orange background shower incoming shower cloud earlier,a couple of heavy intense blizzard showers,wind whipped up to january 1982 heights, superb afternoon..-4.8c now.

Edited by Snowyowl9
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