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The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

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Not sure if anyone else has noticed, but just to show exactly how cold it is. Our snow that thawed, the small puddles and wet ground has actually just turned to puddles of ice and General ice. Can't say I remember that ever happening before, certainly not so quickly. 

Couple of showers looking interesting over Burton for those near Rugeley, Hednesford, Cannock. If they hold together they look similar to the 1st shower about 1pm today.

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Another whiteout heavy snow shower in Nottingham, settling everywhere again. Here is hoping that when the Sun inevitably returns that now we are getting later in the afternoon this snow sticks better

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Arpege  still going for a snowy Thursday    Its actually a belter  stalls over the midlands

arpege-1-34-0.png?28-16    arpege-1-36-0.png?28-16

Edited by weirpig

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1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Ay, weirpig, aperge charts look good, hope reliable model

was you watching me??.  :D

Edited by weirpig

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5 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

Not sure if anyone else has noticed, but just to show exactly how cold it is. Our snow that thawed, the small puddles and wet ground has actually just turned to puddles of ice and General ice. Can't say I remember that ever happening before, certainly not so quickly. 

Couple of showers looking interesting over Burton for those near Rugeley, Hednesford, Cannock. If they hold together they look similar to the 1st shower about 1pm today.

South east Stafford too? can see 'em, should certainly snow again

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1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Arpege  still going for a snowy Thursday  

arpege-1-34-0.png?28-16    arpege-1-36-0.png?28-16

Bit further south again, i'm not convinced it will make it here.

Would love to be in the central belt tonight, so jealous of them guys!

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1 minute ago, Staffordshire said:

Bit further south again, i'm not convinced it will make it here.

Would love to be in the central belt tonight, so jealous of them guys!

This is were it stalls  

arpege-1-40-0.png?28-16

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Please God let tomorrows event come off. We deserve it after the last few days of total frustration.

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Totals  for friday     15cm  for some of the midlands  30 cm for Wales  Icon  barely brings any precipitation to Wales  let alone here

arpege-45-45-0.png?28-16

Edited by weirpig

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Thanks Weirpig, I'm still optimistic that the West Midlands Conurbation will see snow from Emma. I think precip should start to fall after the evening rush hour on Thursday, before hopefully 'intensifying' overnight.

I hear some on the South West forum think that the low is further east than what the 'ICON' is predicting.

I'm still hopeful of an Amber warning, which I hope will be issued tomorrow morning.

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3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

This is were it stalls  

arpege-1-40-0.png?28-16

I have a question you or someone else may be able to help me with. Why does ppn struggle so much to maintain intensity over the British Isles? Look at that PPN inland in France, why does that not die off as soon as it comes inland? Same in the US/Canada, they can have frontal systems travelling over land that maintain intensity but they just seem to die off as soon as they come over land in the UK?

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Come back to a nice few CM of powder snow. Even mini drifting against the fence and door. Variable snow amounts over such short distances mind, all the way back up the M6 some fields had little and others a good coating. 

I'm off to brave Flash if the road has cleared, think windchill there will be severe today. -4C here even in bright sun, lowest day max I've seen.

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I hope EURO4 upgrades our snow potential as well as HIRLAM, once again a shift NE, would be favourable.

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We have a nice little blob on us for now I think probably about 15mins worth of 5/10 snow not looking good this evening.. tomorrow needs to push up more north east.

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4 minutes ago, Staffordshire said:

I have a question you or someone else may be able to help me with. Why does ppn struggle so much to maintain intensity over the British Isles? Look at that PPN inland in France, why does that not die off as soon as it comes inland? Same in the US/Canada, they can have frontal systems travelling over land that maintain intensity but they just seem to die off as soon as they come over land in the UK?

Generally the weather systems (especially North America) are much larger in scale. They have gained energy and strength over the entire pacific/atlantic ocean before hitting east coast america, which is why precipitation has no problem getting many hundreds of miles in land. I think their warmer waters feed the systems too which makes them bigger. As for France, I guess the same story, just they are generally affected by bigger systems ? though i'm not as sure.

Ofcourse when it comes to snow, the rain has no issues getting into the midlands...:fool:

Edited by kmanmx

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1 minute ago, kmanmx said:

Generally the weather systems (especially North America) are much larger in scale. They have gained energy and strength over the entire pacific ocean before hitting east coast america, which is why precipitation has no problem getting many hundreds of miles in land.


As for France, I guess the same story, just they are generally affected by bigger systems ?

 

Ofcourse when it comes to snow, the rain has no issues getting into the midlands...:fool:

Why would the systems be any bigger in France though? That area of rain posted by weirpig actually looks quite small.

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1 minute ago, Staffordshire said:

Why would the systems be any bigger in France though? That area of rain posted by weirpig actually looks quite small.

 

Yeah not quite sure about France. If I were to guess, their coastal waters are generally warmer ?. Warmer water gives storms and weather systems more strength, then as they approach the UK and hit colder waters, they lose strength ?

Really not sure in Frances case, just an educated guess.

Edited by kmanmx

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what are the snow  chances for Birmingham tonight and tomorrow folks? thanks.

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Fridays event needs to shift more Northeast for us the East Midlands which is currently looking unlikely.

The only comfort I take is that for the snow event in December, on the Saturday Nottingham was in the sweetspot, only for the system to end up further South & West at the last minute, which meant we woke up Sunday to lightsnow while places 40 miles away to our west got hammered. Slight changes can make all the difference even at the last minute. Its a straw im clutching too

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looks  like the north sea is starting to produce the showers again.

just checked XCW for wind direction and its changed, a direct Easterley flow, fantastic, check it out.

nothing out over coast of Linc at 1.30pm but now plenty of ppn.

 

noticed that coldest 850s (-16 are now coming in land, could this be setting of the ppn, also if winds picked up, lot more instability.

 

I,m sure others with more knowledge can inform :)

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