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The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

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12 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

thawing though as soon as it stops, Feb won't be as good as Dec

Not Bothered  as long as March is

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Man, temperature has really dropped noticeably in the last hour or two.

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1 minute ago, Fozfoster said:

Had heavy snow about 12pm for 45 mins but all gone now. Sun to strong. ?

Ay, 2 months earlier we'd be laughing, but still feel strong sun kinda helps to kick off convection

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Heaviest snow of the day here now. Nothing amazing, and as others have said the moment the sun returns most of it will melt, but still nice to look at. Temp has also dropped two degrees, to -1.6 °C.

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19 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

thawing though as soon as it stops, Feb won't be as good as Dec

Ours has stayed for the last 10-15 minutes at any rate after the snow stopped - fingers crossed it stays again... once a base layer gets established, it will help everything else that falls to not-melt, presumably... so if this thin layer stays and freezes overnight then... I dunno, fingers crossed anyway and it looks lovely - my extended family was increased by one small boy arriving in the small hours so I'm finishing knitting for the new baby, and the view from where I sit has a huge big conifer tree which looks just like a Christmas card with snow on each layer of its waving conifer-fur!

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1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Friday night fun and games GFS 12Z

prectypeuktopo.png

Mighty blizzard all of the midlands!!am beginning to think forget these showers now cos they are useless for us and just focus on the friday event!!

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3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Friday night fun and games GFS 12Z

prectypeuktopo.png

We can but hope ?

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Just now, shaky said:

Mighty blizzard all of the midlands!!am beginning to think forget these showers now cos they are useless for us and just focus on the friday event!!

bbc also must see something, last few updates going for snow Thursday, but GFS dosen't, gives me light snow from 2pm Thursday, and all day Friday

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4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Friday night fun and games GFS 12Z

prectypeuktopo.png

Surely Met will put the Midlands in Amber warning looking at that. 2 bands look like merging also.

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2nd shower of the day about an hour ago. Previous shower melted, into puddles, this shower stuck down close to another CM. 

For me, this is the most important 12 hours or so of the week now, away from the weekend which has the potential either way to bring snow, miss us, or bring snow followed by a thaw. 

It was obvious on Feb 11th that showers didn't settle all day, but as soon as the sun went down - they stuck immediately. Now today's have been heavy enough to stick during the day time. IF we can keep a few showers coming when the sun goes down, then it would only take a few light ones, or the odd heavy one to cause some drama in the morning on the roads AND most importantly see most of us wake up to a fresh covering and the potential to make the most of cameras. 

I know that sounds dramatic, BUT if that happens then this event/week has the potential to be a 'better than expected' effort, with the weekend up in the air. If it doesn't, then we are going to struggle unless the weekend comes off. 

Euro 4, the met etc see showers continuing after dark. My only concern is without the sun and in any convective episode that showers will be weaker from the coasts and either die out before getting inland. 

I did think tomorrow looked dry last night...although forecasts look a LITTLE bit better than they did then....reasons to be optimistic. 

But, and it is an IMO, tonight will define whether this week (not weekend) produces or not....hope I explained that properly.

Edited by PolarWarsaw
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2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Mighty blizzard all of the midlands!!am beginning to think forget these showers now cos they are useless for us and just focus on the friday event!!

Now THAT is one mouth-watering chart! BANK, and bank again just because! :yahoo:

My only gripe is the timing, I always much prefer daytime snow events so I can actually see the flippin' stuff falling properly :D

Bish

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6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Friday night fun and games GFS 12Z

prectypeuktopo.png

Anyone seen the gem model!!all day heavy snow for midlands thursday and continues friday!!madness!!

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Much better GFS 12z  run  keeps us in the colder air for longer   upgrade

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GFS 12z looks amazing for the Midlands on Friday. Need to get the Meto on board. Their latest update is going for snow flurries on Friday after a clear start.

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2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Much better GFS 12z  run  keeps us in the colder air for longer   upgrade

Ukmo apparently is brilliant aswell!!

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3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Anyone seen the gem model!!all day heavy snow for midlands thursday and continues friday!!madness!!

Lol  surely the GEM has gone off on one?.   Serious disruption

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Also, showers tomorrow accumulating for longer on the GFS. It will be a degree or so colder.

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here's hoping Nottingham gets a couple of similar showers tonight because after dark they will stick & should put a decent covering down.

if not Friday is probably our last throw of the dice to see a decent snow event even if it does only stick around for 24 hours. Unlike other parts of the Midlands, Notts did not do very well back in December, this winter for us will be a tale of what could have been.

However with a glass half full attitude, if we can keep these showers coming in over night we should wake up to a decent covering tomorrow, & hope Friday turns out special to save Winter 17/18 for us East Midlanders

 

 

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GFS really doesn't look all that great to me, or am I missing something? Light to moderate snowfall for a few hours, surely wouldn't accumulate to more than 2-4cm?

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Met Office regional forecast makes more sense than it did this morning. Mentions further snow on Sunday.

mo regional.png

Edited by MattStoke

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