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Model output discussion - mid January


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2 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Been a long time since I have seen a beauty of an uppers chart and I don`t care if it comes off or not, That is just lovely...

ECM0-168.GIF

 

Have a look at the JMA then !

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In days of old, When nights were cold, And models weren't invented, We might have hoped, we might have prayed, But we didn't drive ourselves demented.   The MJO the QBO,

netweather members celebrate when the long-awaited easterly finally arrives...

00z EC showing interesting battleground snow event for the north and west next Tuesday, as Atlantic frontal system moves in from the west and bumps into the cold air If only my wife could u

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1 minute ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Not sure anyone should trust any chart at 240 let alone a mean Feb

That is an acceptable point of view but I take it then the people that are of that viewpoint a) Don't bother with ensemble means products as that is the sort of timeframes they are aimed at modelling, and b) when an undercut is just in the process at 192 with the -17c isotherm poised across the North sea that they don't bother viewing the rest of the run because if it shows an Armageddon scenario at 240 it is irrelevant anyway as it cant be trusted.

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4 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Not sure anyone should trust any chart at 240 let alone a mean Feb

I'd look no further than the 144-168 progression that's the period that could further upgrade with trough disruption and would render the 240 chart pointless  (as it always is anyway)

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31 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The ECM 240 mean depicts a pattern as flat as a pancake albeit with slightly below average temps.

Lol  the models Can’t even decide at t144  what is going to happen and your talking about patterns 10 days away,utterly pointless.All output after 168 should be ignored it flips and flops so much.

i would never trust any output after 144 never ever 

 

Edited by SLEETY
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17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That is an acceptable point of view but I take it then the people that are of that viewpoint a) Don't bother with ensemble means products as that is the sort of timeframes they are aimed at modelling, and b) when an undercut is just in the process at 192 with the -17c isotherm poised across the North sea that they don't bother viewing the rest of the run because if it shows an Armageddon scenario at 240 it is irrelevant anyway as it cant be trusted.

I think the question in reply to that Feb is How many undercuts and armageddon scenarios at 192/240 have you or I seen countdown unchanged to T0. My answer to that in twenty years of model watching on the internet is just one and I learn,t a long time ago that any product at 192=240 be it operational,mean,or ensemble mean is eminently unreliable for any kind of even moderate detail when dealing with such a tiny land mass as the British Isles.

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4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

The main thing that is coming out of this.....is how cold it looks lije being.  No beast from the east but that I don’t think will matter.  Turn of month cold digs in....then propensity to keep it cold.   Looking interesting to say the least

 

BFTP

Well there looks to be some very cold air rather nearby tad beastly in nature over our shoulder. Much of Europe looks set to experience the coldest air of the winter thus far. Looks ruddy cold in Moscow about time. :cold:

8D0E37A1-0207-4B62-BEE0-BE41B2A0DCA8.thumb.gif.d7715b7f449448f318e564f82e566ff8.gif5EE3B372-6470-4325-A256-EA042282C420.thumb.gif.a838b3a4229986bd2c0f50538a63dac2.gif

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Question is what would we prefer..beast from the east or a strong cold north westerly? If it’s cold enough a north westerly can actually deliver quite a bit as some areas have already found out so far this winter. As long as it brings snow I really don’t care which way the winds blowing

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7 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Question is what would we prefer..beast from the east or a strong cold north westerly? If it’s cold enough a north westerly can actually deliver quite a bit as some areas have already found out so far this winter. As long as it brings snow I really don’t care which way the winds blowing

Nearly always I would prefer an Easterly but that GFS 12z where the -8c isotherm covering practically the whole country and the -10 even for a short while hit some places, then a NWerly because an Easterly with those kind of uppers would probably deliver less PPN.

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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The ECM 240 mean depicts a pattern as flat as a pancake albeit with slightly below average temps.

If I were living like you 600ft above sea level in the north of England, I would not be too disheartened by the 240 mean and the prior charts. It’s us down south who will be robbed. ?

Edited by Weathervane
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16 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

I think the question in reply to that Feb is How many undercuts and armageddon scenarios at 192/240 have you or I seen countdown unchanged to T0. My answer to that in twenty years of model watching on the internet is just one and I learn,t a long time ago that any product at 192=240 be it operational,mean,or ensemble mean is eminently unreliable for any kind of even moderate detail when dealing with such a tiny land mass as the British Isles.

But if you are of that view, when there is zonal dross within the D10 period on every suite, do you look further?

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1 minute ago, Weathervane said:

If I were living like you 600ft above sea level in the north of England, I would not be too disheartened by the 240 mean and the prior charts. It’s us down south who will robbed. ?

Its all about what you are happy with though, yes if 2 inches of slush floated my boat or a load of dustings, it would have been the greatest winter of all time this one.

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Evening everyone,hope everyone is well:)

just looking at the latest from de-built and there does appear to me that more members are going for this easterly,how long it will last is another question

but look at todays compared with the one i posted on monday(right) and the link below of my post

eps_pluim_dd_06260.pngeps_pluim_dd_06260.png.497ccb7471a4f4ca4

if we look at the dew points,there does seem to be a split from around the 3rd of Feb,we want to see the black line verify if we want this easterly to come off and not the red line

 

eps_pluim_td_06260.thumb.png.bfd087c63efd276ad84340769a4cb8d3.png

this still not nail on yet in timings and it could be tomorrows runs(more so the 12z suit) to get a better bearing what is on offer:)

do we get a beast from the east or a west is best,could be fun and games come the weekend,battleground anyone!

beast_from_the_east_by_jonwilliamwalker-index.thumb.jpg.019f4ba9106286b116ac7b72f46c6d25.jpg

 

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27 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I don’t see a fearsome beast from the east arriving...

4CA3D1A2-E33C-4E50-9338-718D2C7EB713.thumb.jpeg.d1a8da7fc543892bd7174fd757e15611.jpeg

...but I don’t see a feline cat either 

18E2D4AC-81E9-49D9-8D31-592A9A4AEBB7.thumb.jpeg.a64cb4d99268347f42188f71a182e081.jpeg

Something more in between enough to cause trouble and send Sidney running:p 

F178A73C-41B0-412C-91AA-A089825C774F.thumb.jpeg.6f432bc2646861ed23a4f413795704d0.jpegF5A8DDCB-2257-426D-BAB9-F0C71C53BE16.thumb.jpeg.feecd5327476abf48d9cd22c2d33db9b.jpeg

whoooosh!!!

surprised-squirrel.gif:D

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