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Model output discussion - mid January


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Well since the high point of last nights 18z, it's all been a bit underwhelming (yes, I am understating affairs).  GFS has reverted to blowing up mega lows in FI with a 935 low to the west of Iceland at 222

gfs-0-222.png?12 :shok:

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In days of old, When nights were cold, And models weren't invented, We might have hoped, we might have prayed, But we didn't drive ourselves demented.   The MJO the QBO,

netweather members celebrate when the long-awaited easterly finally arrives...

00z EC showing interesting battleground snow event for the north and west next Tuesday, as Atlantic frontal system moves in from the west and bumps into the cold air If only my wife could u

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Resumption of cold PM flow at day 4 more normal service this winter - widespread showers, falling as snow on high ground although not entirely so, just high ground of the north. Models have upgraded this cold snap with greater amplification to W. 

46C76516-20C4-4A0D-9E0A-3C5E85C80E04.thumb.gif.9dd282d279ba09baa15d528f50413e28.gif927E5A32-CD0A-4A5C-987E-7C80AF58E89F.thumb.gif.796beaa0903fee656e40267fe500f3e6.gif

Edited by Daniel*
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13 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Well since the high point of last nights 18z, it's all been a bit underwhelming (yes, I am understating affairs).  GFS has reverted to blowing up mega lows in FI with a 935 low to the west of Iceland at 222

gfs-0-222.png?12 :shok:

Its more likely than not im afraid its not called the icelandic low for nothing i used to think feb was the time when the PV started to weaken but over the past few years it has not been happening its just the way it is nowadays sadly

Edited by igloo
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GFS up to it’s usual tricks blows up a sub 930mb snow ‘hurricane’ this probable over egg is important for developments to north/east. On the fact of chart below it looks quite encouraging, just out west needs to be toned down.

13EAABE4-2B1A-4A96-ABB6-410E9079FBDF.thumb.png.9b1772b6352ca10daa809d1864b3d18f.png

Edited by Daniel*
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This is the 3rd bad run in a row for coldies from GFS, IF, and I say if it were to verify our cold would be pushed so far away east that we would have no chance of a cold easterly this February, as others have said more chance to look north and maybe a decent toppler could be more likely.

gfs-1-216.png

gfs-1-240.png

gfs-1-288.png

gfs-1-336.png

 

gfs-1-384.png

Edited by snowray
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Just now, Daniel* said:

@blue It looks pretty on the extreme side probable it won’t be as berserk as that.

That gfs op is pretty good wrt to the gefs and eps through week 2. ends with heights dropping se across the Atlantic and rising to our east. It might not evolve like you want it to but it’s far more likely to verify than some of the eye candy over the past few days. Although that’s the mean picture be8ng reflected,  the clusters show more wintry soltuons still on the table. 

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6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Whilst GFS 06z toned it down the 12z goes the other way vortex hopefully shunned away NW into Canada..

B48B1204-99F4-46CA-9F7F-198DACFB5472.thumb.jpeg.33887f17082e0cd7647dd6762a42fb7f.jpeg5B6B805C-E84D-403F-9280-9B1F89EFC442.thumb.jpeg.d6cb972ea79fdb87109bf4e4435f42a2.jpeg

I’m keener on the heights tbh .....

D397CDDC-7CBF-4615-82B3-737D814B45CA.thumb.jpeg.c424f9aed0bc4841f5e0c09ae71da975.jpeg

 

Day 16 though ......

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2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Here’s a poser then

the GFS for a day or 2 had a Scandi high well before your lagged time - A model doesn’t forget things - so unless it was being progressive by 10 days / 2 weeks then it goes against what your indicating..

so vis a vee at that point the MJO was necessary driving the GFS output-

 

in terms of GFS being the only data source available for some quite important plots that’s like school kids taking turns picking their football teams & the GFS being the last one picked because it had to be picked- doesn’t make it any good-

I tend not to subscribe to the belief that models at days 13 or so are infallible. Also, i don't worship the MJO. It is a catalyst to change, but not a sure thing.

But you can also achieve a Scandinavian block through a shallow movement from phase 1-4 of the GWO under La Nina conditions. (Tease since end of December in the models). GEFS was also much more bullish in its GWO forecast going phase 4 much quicker than it actually did. Even 5 or so days ago it thought it would happen then, but only managed it the last 24 hours. I personally view GWO forecasts as unreliable even at T24.

Also, ridging or MLB is to be expected in La Nina conditions. Since a HLB comes from that ridging initially, you have a multitude of opportunities for models to get things wrong. 

I can't predict the future of how the GWO will move through its phases and we are all more ignorant than a few days ago due to that loss of data, but I personally think we will see at least another easterly tease in days 10-15 shortly and if things continue as recent data suggested, maybe more than a tease. 

 

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2 minutes ago, OfficialKevWX said:

Gone is a strong word, there is huge uncertainty after Day 6, so I wouldn’t discount more flipping within OP runs

I don't mean thw whole thing, just this earlier than expected chance - FI even in these last 2 downgraded suites has offered something but its just like those charts at xmas now where the ridge is there but the PV just too strong.

DEFO nothing before 384 now IMO.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I don't mean thw whole thing, just this earlier than expected chance - FI even in these last 2 downgraded suites has offered something but its just like those charts at xmas now where the ridge is there but the PV just too strong.

DEFO nothing before 384 now IMO.

A good dry out for many for the most part. I don't mean members in here:D

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44 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I don't mean thw whole thing, just this earlier than expected chance - FI even in these last 2 downgraded suites has offered something but its just like those charts at xmas now where the ridge is there but the PV just too strong.

DEFO nothing before 384 now IMO.

The spread at T264 isn’t flat though ...

A78C175A-F6F0-4100-8FD0-10B77D623161.thumb.jpeg.678e1d1dc3a0dd2f764e227365431441.jpeg

 

Edited by bluearmy
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A perfect example via 12z ec-mod..

Note the rounding of diss-aligned AZHP..

And the pm flow....

Not to mention the now polar height form..

Again i'll elaborate shortly..as things stand firm!!!!

Edit;..

MJO. looks key to overiding factors....

And forcing-may be overcoming nina cond!!

ECH1-96.gif

ECM1-96.gif

Screenshot_2018-01-27-18-15-43.png

Edited by tight isobar
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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

The spread at T264 isn’t flat though ...

A78C175A-F6F0-4100-8FD0-10B77D623161.thumb.jpeg.678e1d1dc3a0dd2f764e227365431441.jpeg

 

Hmm - I'm not a big fan of spreads tbh, the GEFS actually did look decent still in Graph form but probably the reason for the spread as well is that there have been some (admittedly fairly potent) NWerly incursions with some ridiculously low heights to the Nw and W, the reason I don't like spreads is it only takes one outlier to skew the whole thing, I admit though after the suite was fully out, Ive backtracked to the extent where it wasn't as bad as id feared but like I say, that's due to some -6 / -7c PM incursions.

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1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

A picture paints a thousand words..

Lets see where this goes....

Its a freezer run....

ECH1-120.gif

It barely gets the -6c isotherm into Britain and likely wont do much better throughout the whole run.

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55 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Updated MJO still looks good

 

01D479FF-3CAD-4F80-83A3-D664F8D4A5AD.thumb.gif.4f1b41da0489fc94c5e9045bf03dca7c.gif

15756FBC-4D6F-4665-B345-73BCE2A83255.thumb.gif.c4d516b976c754c7728f8f2a60094815.gif

Indeedy... steady as she goes less so for NWP, while MJO should not be taken in isolation it is promising. Model fatigue has really set in. Come on folks we’re nearly there - for la freeze. :spiteful:

May have the remainder of the weekend off, and see what new week brings a much clearer picture will be identifiable by this time next week; the new week ahead will be the most crucial of the winter. :D 

 

Edited by Daniel*
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ECM has the biggest wedge of heights ahead of the Atlantic @144 - there’s has the biggest chance of holding the Atlantic off come 192

lets see how the run develops

C9700A5E-D046-4663-AC49-971C34BDCF20.thumb.png.611c6abdefcf43ef4bc2fe600de2eb66.png

 

Edited by Steve Murr
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