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Paul

Model output discussion - mid January

Paul

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5 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

image.thumb.png.d5a3f6cc8bdf6cab053a2b1293a8ff4b.png

 

I can hear the GFS serenading us now...

Tonight you're mine, completely
You give your love so sweetly
Tonight the light of love is in your eyes
But will you love me tomorrow?

Let's just just hope it ain't just (another 'run' around sue)  :D

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13 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

image.thumb.png.d5a3f6cc8bdf6cab053a2b1293a8ff4b.png

 

I can hear the GFS serenading us now...

Tonight you're mine, completely
You give your love so sweetly
Tonight the light of love is in your eyes
But will you love me tomorrow?

By 0500 today more like.

Oh GFS you are full of crap

You make me look such a pratt

You are so bold

You promise us cold

But you will never deliver

Leaving Knocker to have a snigger 

C.S

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Cant post pics but what a difference between the 18z and the 0z run one extreme to the other a real shocker and just shows dont pin your hopes on some outrageous charts we have been viewing over the past few days

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5 minutes ago, igloo said:

Cant post pics but what a difference between the 18z and the 0z run one extreme to the other a real shocker and just shows dont pin your hopes on some outrageous charts we have been viewing over the past few days

Yes, very different.

gfsnh-0-222.pnggfsnh-0-234.png?18

Edited by Mucka

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The GFS is churning out some crazy charts over the past few days this one is no different there must be something in the air at some point in feb 

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...there must be something in the air at some point in feb

The Queen said, "The rule is, jam to-morrow and jam yesterday – but never jam to-day."

Once again the cold eastern air's promised arrival has been pushed back to an eternal "tomorrow"

Edited by osmposm
clarification

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FI, what is it good for?

A fantasy countrywide freeze or a nice fantasy BBQ. that's what.

gensnh-3-1-252.pnggensnh-3-0-240.png

gensnh-10-1-228.png

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More runs needed:D no wonder there is low confidence and a lot of uncertainty. 

IMG_0420.PNG

IMG_0421.PNG

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No point sugar coating things, the overnight runs are poor viz. cold.  The ECM is a horror show.  Those low heights to the NW are the spoiler.

Edited by mulzy

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January is nearly over and the models keep pushing the easterlies further from reach, cold can come from elsewhere you know :doh:, but if it is easterlies you're after,  i'm sure by May they will arrive.:oops:

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33 minutes ago, Banbury said:

For those just tuning in go look at the ENS 

And what about them,as you can’t be bothered to tell anyone:rolleyes:

Anyway don’t worry I can   still  see some very cold ensembles members there,some approaching-15 hpa:cold:

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On 19/01/2018 at 16:52, mb018538 said:

Anyone willing to bet the high pressure build that the models keep showing doesn’t come off? Nearer the time it will have underplayed the Atlantic influence, and a low will plough through and keep it flat and unsettled. Seen it all winter, so I’m going to go for it again!:D

I posted this a week ago - lo and behold it came true. Models then started to show another pressure build....ECM now has his flat as a pancake too. Same problem, too much energy coming across the Atlantic keeping high pressure away. Just rinse and repeat folks...

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12 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

And what about them,as you can’t be bothered to tell anyone:rolleyes:

Anyway don’t worry I can   still  see some very cold ensembles members there,some approaching-15 hpa:cold:

Why should I do all the work lol my point don’t hang your hat on one run be it the Op or Control old boy .....not that you were 

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21 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

It never fails to amaze me. Time and time again people expecting one great run to follow the next. That would be nice but also a bit boring if it worked like that. No trends emerging, just models trying to reflect an increasingly active Pacific. The jam will continue unabated, the next few days and weeks this place won’t be for the faint hearted.

I see it like this, and it has been consistently showing for about a week now. First window of opportunity around the 4th. Split opinion, not favouring the quicker colder option (currently).

Route 1...

E4CBE24F-D639-4D42-8B1B-435E40B16DB9.thumb.png.a447854cc6def49d516d3915140fd27e.png

Route 2...

67099BD2-0005-44C3-B999-428069B43B83.thumb.png.a62a07f8770856ea0085f7c95da8f5dc.png

Personally I think route2 is still a bit early, but both are on the table. Thereafter, and assuming we don’t go down the route2 quicker onset route, the next window of opportunity emerges not longer afterwards. With the background signals as they are, we will likely get more than one opportunity throughout February so try not to be too dispondant when initially we just miss out.

In my opinion, a fairly major cold spell fro Europe is coming in February, that may or may not include us. 

Quite possibly one of the most balanced and sensible posts on here this week.

What has also remained consistent throughout the various model runs is thst deep cold is never too far away to our east and like you say it may or may not encompass the UK but Europe in general is soon to head into the freexer fir the first time this Winter...its been remarkably mild for the most part thus far for the majority of mainland Europe this winter.

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8 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Chill people, ecm being very naughty

BEB65F7A-8E6A-4504-90F2-6FA1FA80B7A4.thumb.png.7d8cbcf7955436f9b6b85a29f2d02d06.png

 

I suspected as much Karlos. The op is way off beam compared to the ens range one of the starkest mild outliers for a while.

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30 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

It never fails to amaze me. Time and time again people expecting one great run to follow the next. That would be nice but also a bit boring if it worked like that. No trends emerging, just models trying to reflect an increasingly active Pacific. The jam will continue unabated, the next few days and weeks this place won’t be for the faint hearted.

I see it like this, and it has been consistently showing for about a week now. First window of opportunity around the 4th. Split opinion, not favouring the quicker colder option (currently).

Route 1...

E4CBE24F-D639-4D42-8B1B-435E40B16DB9.thumb.png.a447854cc6def49d516d3915140fd27e.png

Route 2...

67099BD2-0005-44C3-B999-428069B43B83.thumb.png.a62a07f8770856ea0085f7c95da8f5dc.png

Personally I think route2 is still a bit early, but both are on the table. Thereafter, and assuming we don’t go down the route2 quicker onset route, the next window of opportunity emerges not longer afterwards. With the background signals as they are, we will likely get more than one opportunity throughout February so try not to be too dispondant when initially we just miss out.

In my opinion, a fairly major cold spell fro Europe is coming in February, that may or may not include us. 

Couldn,t agree more S4L

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15 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I posted this a week ago - lo and behold it came true. Models then started to show another pressure build....ECM now has his flat as a pancake too. Same problem, too much energy coming across the Atlantic keeping high pressure away. Just rinse and repeat folks...

ok Marty Mcfly, can you tell me what the lottery numbers are for the second week of Feb are as well?

the models are consistently showing hp building, often showing epic cold (like the 00z GFS)

gfsnh-1-336.thumb.png.0f8bd5cfee75e64f8171e13b27bef885.png

however we are also seeing large swings in the timing of this happening. this is just another example of that

also as @karlos1983 points out, the ECM is a mild outlier.

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1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

January is nearly over and the models keep pushing the easterlies further from reach, cold can come from elsewhere you know :doh:, but if it is easterlies you're after,  i'm sure by May they will arrive.:oops:

Actually Easterlies are statistically more common in April and May than any other time of year ,probably due to the fact that the jet stream is becoming more relaxed and less fuelled by a strong displaced polar vortex over the other side of the Atlantic....:nonono:

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S4L said it all

loads of evolutions sitting on the table - how we get to the mid Feb scrussian ridge (which incidentally grows in confidence, run by run on the eps), is likely a rollercoaster with plenty of wintry opportunities but also plenty of likely disappointments..............

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Looking at the gfs anomaly, does suggest expectations for any easterly are really post D10, starting with a High pressure near or over the UK which then goes north and delivers the goods!

tempresult_rdg0.gif 

 

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

S4L said it all

loads of evolutions sitting on the table - how we get to the mid Feb scrussian ridge (which incidentally grows in confidence, run by run on the eps), is likely a rollercoaster with plenty of wintry opportunities but also plenty of likely disappointments..............

Does that include the 0z suite?

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25 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Actually Easterlies are statistically more common in April and May than any other time of year ,probably due to the fact that the jet stream is becoming more relaxed and less fuelled by a strong displaced polar vortex over the other side of the Atlantic....:nonono:

Snow is also more common in those months than December. Well April anyway.

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