Model output discussion - mid January

[snowray]

5 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

ECM makes an attempt but doesn't quite get there, still plenty of time for change.

Yes still lots of time, ECM moving in the right direction. And heres the JMA smelling the coffee too.

[Methuselah]

So long as when I return, following Man Ure's humiliation at the hands of wee Yeovil Town, all the models are agreed on a month long Beast From The East, I'll be reasonably content...Baby steps, eh?

[Ice Day]

2 minutes ago, snowray said:

Yes still lots of time, ECM moving in the right direction. And heres the JMA smelling the coffee too.

And whilst we're looking at the 'lesser' models, here's the GEM at 240hrs

  

All joking aside, there is a very pleasant trend taking place here across the model suite, hopefully we will see it continue over the weekend.  In all honesty, the chase is almost as good as seeing the white stuff falling from the sky!

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

And whilst we're looking at the 'lesser' models, here's the GEM at 240hrs

  

All joking aside, there is a very pleasant trend taking place here across the model suite, hopefully we will see it continue over the weekend.  In all honesty, the chase is almost as good as seeing the white stuff falling from the sky!

Just you wait until the BOM comes out?

[Stuie]

Not sure what we are classing FI at the moment but for 7 days time, better than a kick in the several years gone by stones.

Interesting the Pacific ridge merges with the Arctic high, how that behaves I suppose is pretty high in developing an eastern flow. Good stuff and good watching but that Azores... 

[Dancerwithwings]

At 12z 144h the GEM & GFS are very similar

But also the UKMO & ECM are pretty much the same.

It just shows there's big differences,

Along way to go yet if we see an easterly ......but with differences like this at 144h anything could happen.

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Up to 144 the ECM was looking a good run but fell a bit flat thereafter., but plenty of time for upgrades over the next few days.  So basically we want the the ECM/UKMO to win out to day 6, then GFS' version of events thereafter....not too much to ask for is it?

I think of it as a plus if it happens, I’m sure most are more interested in deeper into feb.

[inghams85]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

I think of it as a plus if it happens, I’m sure most are more interested in deeper into feb.

Yeah agreed Brucie bonus this. The fun and games are still 4 days away from modelling!

[Timmytour]

14 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

At 12z 144h the GEM & GFS are very similar

But also the UKMO & ECM are pretty much the same.

It just shows there's big differences,

Along way to go yet if we see an easterly ......but with differences like this at 144h anything could happen.

Azores looks like it has nowhere to go north on the first two.....but the latter could open up for it like a Sunderland defence!

[nick sussex]

The ECM better early a bit meh towards the end .

The GFS a bit meh to start better later.

So what do we want to verify ?

The models have really dragged out the drama with the upstream pattern with the ECM originally the flattest now more amplified with low pressure.

 

[bobbydog]

23 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

Yeah agreed Brucie bonus this. The fun and games are still 4 days away from modelling!

when you mention "fun and games" (especially) outside of modelling range, don't forget the magic word "potential"....

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

when you mention "fun and games" (especially) outside of modelling range, don't forget the magic word "potential"....

But first, one must check the whereabouts of the building blocks, only then can take baby steps until potential is reached...Then throw all the toys out of the pram!

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended is dry across the UK

[lawrenk]

1 hour ago, Ice Day said:

And whilst we're looking at the 'lesser' models, here's the GEM at 240hrs

  

All joking aside, there is a very pleasant trend taking place here across the model suite, hopefully we will see it continue over the weekend.  In all honesty, the chase is almost as good as seeing the white stuff falling from the sky!

Living on the South East coast I’ll have to take your word for that my friend.

[bobbydog]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended is dry across the UK

thankyou for the in-depth analysis there gavin. 

[feb1991blizzard]

Not bad for a mean for a whole month.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, bobbydog said:

thankyou for the in-depth analysis there gavin. 

You cant possibly make any in depth analysis of those useless charts though!!!

[bluearmy]

The extended eps are spookily in line with the ec46 (which was run yesterday 00z). So three runs later the end of the eps fits with the ec46. That doesn’t often happen and adds some credence to the week 3 output. 

[Froze were the Days]

Looks like the op runs of both GFS and ECM are trending away from any blocking scenario and heading in the transient cold zonality (again) - certainly not like the FI outputs of recent days from the GFS.

Must add it would be nice not to look at one of those UKMO extended charts without a ruddy Azores high staring you in the face...getting tedious.

Edited January 26, 2018 by Froze were the Days

[Daniel*]

33 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The extended eps are spookily in line with the ec46 (which was run yesterday 00z). So three runs later the end of the eps fits with the ec46. That doesn’t often happen and adds some credence to the week 3 output. 

That is significant if you ask me. Very rare furthermore GloSea5 on board even more eager so I’m informed.

[ICE COLD]

21 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Looks like the op runs of both GFS and ECM are trending away from any blocking scenario and heading in the transient cold zonality (again) - certainly not like the FI outputs of recent days from the GFS.

Must add it would be nice not to look at one of those UKMO extended charts without a ruddy Azores high staring you in the face...getting tedious.

You mean one GFS op run the 12z run wasn't quite as good as previous runs ?? 

Here is the GFS 6z run in FI 

And here is the GFS 0z run in FI 

So to say that the op's are trending away from blocking is not true . It's just not as cold or blocked on the 12z run but just a variation of a theme .

Edited January 26, 2018 by ICE COLD

[Froze were the Days]

Yes true but ECM by and large not on board with the blocking theme to the north east and GFS certainly not showing a Scandinavian high pressure giving an easterly as yesterday or day before.

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening "! A Winter with very few mild days and benign weather , stormy and cold about sums it up and that's whats on offer from the models ... Nothing as yet from the North East..... A very cold Winter for many...with well below average temps....

[bobbydog]

with all this 'potential' on the cards, where's @Frosty. ?

has he been captured and frozen by the 'dark side'?...

[Radiating Dendrite]

1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening "! A Winter with very few mild days and benign weather , stormy and cold about sums it up and that's whats on offer from the models ... Nothing as yet from the North East..... A very cold Winter for many...with well below average temps....

I would hardly describe this winter as stormy and cold. December was near average CET wise and with relatively benign weather whilst January is tracking above average on the CET and has featured a couple of windstorms, one of which was fairly notable......but hardly unusual for winter. I would say a fairly average winter overall, more notable the further north you go.

Edited January 26, 2018 by Radiating Dendrite