Model output discussion - mid January

[Chertseystreamer79]

Gonna check out the 18z then out of here for a long weekend. If I return to some serious disagreements then I know we are closer to dreamland (for the south east!) Enjoy the ride peeps and enjoy each others opinions...it's just weather even if it feels like life or death!

 

Eyes down....

[karlos1983]

Cough ....PM button (useful for disagreements most of us don’t care about)

when is the EC 30 day’r next out? Is it tonight? Hoping that has some support for height rises to NE.

TIA

Edited January 25, 2018 by karlos1983

[dec10snow]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Cough ....PM button

when is the EC 30 day’r next out? Is it tonight?

TIA

I believe Fergie said it was this evening Karlos, yeah!

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, dec10snow said:

I believe Fergie said it was this evening Karlos, yeah!

Its out in a few minutes - I will post it.

[Daniel*]

Just in from EC monthly! Sure is encouraging.

 

[Scandinavian High.]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Just in from EC monthly! Sure is encouraging.

 

That's very encouraging news.

[feb1991blizzard]

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I was expecting better after seeing fergies tweet. 

[bluearmy]

Week 3 ec 46 does look good but it isn’t far away from what we had a couple weeks ago - if it  verifies then let’s hope we have lower uppers to our east and southeast than then! 

[karlos1983]

Damn the dodgy GEFs and it’s mean 

awesome update. 

Come on Pub run deliver 

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

I was expecting better after seeing fergies tweet. 

Looks ... dare I say it a little under-curry to me? 

[inghams85]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

I was expecting better after seeing fergies tweet. 

The heights though mate as we discussed on there are post week 2 of February going into week 3. I honestly don't know where people expected cold easterly conditions week 1 in February? MJO has a lag and always has and it takes us to week 2 February onwards.

[blizzard81]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Week 3 ec 46 does look good but it isn’t far away from what we had a couple weeks ago - if it  verifies then let’s hope we have lower uppers to our east and southeast than then! 

As you have intimated, always seems to be week 3. Glossea being on board offers a little more confidence but being so far out I will keep my powder dry for now. 

[feb1991blizzard]

Monthly has bizarrely uppers slightly below average for week 3 but average over the East coast, but the headline is 850s remaining slightly below average for much of UK throughout much of the run.

[Daniel*]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I was expecting better after seeing fergies tweet. 

He does say leaning not exactly a carbon copy and week 3 does look good indeed and this time around there looks to be cold air available while this is tentative. One can’t help but feel something is definitely up.

[Ali1977]

9 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Just in from EC monthly! Sure is encouraging.

 

This is pretty good news , look for more clustering in FI ensembles shoring colder now. I still think 2nd half of Feb is the chance of something severe , only because when we start getting emerging signs on GFS ENS along with the big guns thinking something is afoot they tend to slip right a little 

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Monthly has bizarrely uppers slightly below average for week 3 but average over the East coast, but the headline is 850s remaining slightly below average for much of UK throughout much of the run.

That doesn’t really make any sense the coldest uppers will be closer to the east. Anywho best to not look at uppers at this stage a while off yet it’s the broad pattern we need first. 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Daniel* said:

That doesn’t really make any sense the coldest uppers will be closer to the east. Anywho best to not look at uppers at this stage a while off yet it’s the broad pattern we need first. 

The only thing I can think of is its a transitory week so although they average out like that, the coldest actual recorded uppers in the run at any given point could still be in the SE.

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

As you have intimated, always seems to be week 3. Glossea being on board offers a little more confidence but being so far out I will keep my powder dry for now. 

I generally feel week 3 is of  value on the 46. Not sure week 3 has been particularly poor over the weeks. Note that Ian will have sight of the clusters rather than the mean and anomolys we rely on.

[blizzard81]

Well one thing for sure as far as I am concerned. This is the last chance saloon for this winter with regards to 'real' cold and snow potential. 

[blizzard81]

Pub run p**s special coming up here maybe

[Methuselah]

Still in for the five-minute toppler:

[blizzard81]

Another thing I have noticed over the last couple of gfs runs are the incredibly cold uppers over northern Canada in the extended. Minus 36 to 40. Just like the late 70's. 

[SMU]

2 hours ago, inghams85 said:

 

[bluearmy]

Eps clusters in the extended period down to 2. Preferred it when there were 6 ....................... (though the 66% cluster does build ridging in our vicinity it doesn’t look too exciting ).  I’m sure it provides for plenty of scandi height rises!