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Paul

Model output discussion - mid January

Paul

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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Still seems to be a lot of chopping and changing with the initial degree of amplification.

The GFS 06hrs run brings some colder air sw with a more amplified upstream pattern. The high is still likely to topple afterwards but would be good to see some colder air early before we wait for hopefully something more sustained later.

Indeed, toppling in evidence and look at the colder air appearing next week.

tempresult_jwg4.gif

Edited by Seasonality

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Not the same fun and games later on this GFS run but broadly a similar pattern upto T240hrs.

The ridge topples troughing sinks se into Scandi and then upstream amplification will dictate whether the next Atlantic ridge can get sufficiently ne.

I wouldn't be too disappointed that this run hasn't turned into a crowd pleaser, that tasty output was well into FI and bound to be more changes.

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Unfortunately the 6z run looks more on the money and realistic given how things have panned out this winter. Just a few cold snaps...

Edited by prolongedSnowLover

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Thanks for that Tamara. Very interesting to get the global view of 1978.

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard

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Not likely to get a cold pattern from the ECM clusters D11-D15. 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018012500_360.

though I'm reminded how height rises over Europe have often been overdone this winter, so not worth losing sleep over just yet.

ECM op run at T240, by the way, was one of the most amplified clusters - most were flatter.

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6z london ens...no prizes for note of milder blip.....then into colder scenario!!

 The trend continues....

MT8_London_ens (1).png

Edited by tight isobar

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1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

6z london ens...no prizes for note of milder blip.....then into colder scenario!!

 The trend continues....

MT8_London_ens (1).png

Those are 00z mate!!knowing our luck probably change for the worse on the 06z lol!!

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4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Those are 00z mate!!knowing our luck probably change for the worse on the 06z lol!!

Yep ooz..

6z soon and no -doubt of interest..

Await compare.

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7 minutes ago, shaky said:

Those are 00z mate!!knowing our luck probably change for the worse on the 06z lol!!

Here they are 😉😉😉😉..

Cant knock that set.....

MT8_London_ens (2).png

Edited by tight isobar

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evidently glosea is seeing a scandi high early part Feb 

really is pin the tail on the donkey time but interestingly not much output is going for a not chilly to cold scenario 

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Modles are certainly not without interest as we go into Feb.  I also understand Glossea is going for a scandi High and easterly as we enter the first part of feb  interesting were this will take us.

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5 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Modles are certainly not without interest as we go into Feb.  I also understand Glossea is going for a scandi High and easterly as we enter the first part of feb  interesting were this will take us.

 

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

evidently glosea is seeing a scandi high early part Feb 

really is pin the tail on the donkey time but interestingly not much output is going for a not chilly to cold scenario 

Interesting lads 😀. Where did you get that info from about  glosea ?? 

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Some very cold members there for London going down to -15 scandi high is lurking..

IMG_0460.PNG

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1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

 

Interesting lads 😀. Where did you get that info from about  glosea ?? 

Fergie  on Twitter :0

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6 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Some very cold members there for London going down to -15 scandi high is lurking..

IMG_0460.PNG

[email protected] source...you'd have to ponder!!!??

Edited by tight isobar

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21 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Modles are certainly not without interest as we go into Feb.  I also understand Glossea is going for a scandi High and easterly as we enter the first part of feb  interesting were this will take us.

I take notice when it’s mentioned I don’t believe it has been keen previously in the winter rightfully so. 

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11 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Fergie  on Twitter :0

Cheers for the reply mate . It's interesting he is saying that because there some cracking cold runs in the GEFS . Maybe this time we gonna get what we all want 😁. 

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1 hour ago, Tamara said:

Its only an island if you look at it from the water:)

archivesnh-1978-2-9-0-0.pngarchivesnh-1978-2-9-0-2.pngarchives-1978-2-19-0-0.pngarchivesnh-1978-2-19-0-1.png

 

Great post.  Those charts from 1978 are beautiful to see - pity we are not likely to see a repeat of those conditions again because the whole global climate has changed undeniably since those days.  The ongoing loss of permanent arctic sea ice must have some affect on sea water temperatures in our part of the world and this will not encourage the kind of conditions depicted 40 years ago.  As things stand the models are hinting at a colder start to February but nothing extreme in the charts as yet.

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5 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

Great post.  Those charts from 1978 are beautiful to see - pity we are not likely to see a repeat of those conditions again because the whole global climate has changed undeniably since those days.  The ongoing loss of permanent arctic sea ice must have some affect on sea water temperatures in our part of the world and this will not encourage the kind of conditions depicted 40 years ago.  As things stand the models are hinting at a colder start to February but nothing extreme in the charts as yet.

Dont even get me going on GWA/-AND ARCTIC ICE MELT AND ITS RAMIFICATIONS!!!...

@CLIMATE CHANGE...NOT GW!!!!!

😑

Edited by tight isobar

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I don’t truly understand these AAM plots but encouraging? With higher AAM moving away from v low AAM state forecast from GEFS 00z ens mean it is low amplitude though in COD? A push in amplitude and we’d be laughing. 

77719C7A-1EF1-47AD-A9D7-357AE36B7391.thumb.jpeg.4b16f1ce24b443a86cd0a52b5c9a5ef7.jpeg

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5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

@CLIMATE CHANGE...NOT GW!!!!!

😑

So much this. Whoever it was that managed to get the "global warming" phrase to go mainstream needs a slap on the back the head. Plenty of places in the world where the effects of climate change could result in colder conditions. I've not stayed in touch with the science as much as I should have (was a research assistant helping out on re-drafting a chapter in one of the mid-late '90's IPCC reports), but pretty sure what was already known back then will still hold true: the biggest thing to watch out for is increased frequency of "extreme" weather events (both hot and cold). 

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Can we please leave climate change/warming discussion for the climate area, Thanks All.

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24 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I don’t truly understand these AAM plots but encouraging? With higher AAM moving away from v low AAM state forecast from GEFS 00z ens mean it is low amplitude though in COD? A push in amplitude and we’d be laughing. 

77719C7A-1EF1-47AD-A9D7-357AE36B7391.thumb.jpeg.4b16f1ce24b443a86cd0a52b5c9a5ef7.jpeg

Yes, it's very encouraging. Would be better if we had a little more Phase 4 and a little less GEFS craziness, but it's definitely encouraging.

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