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Model output discussion - mid January


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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    5 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

    We can expect a memorable snow event affecting almost the whole country on Tuesday if these precipitation type charts are anywhere near accurate....

      image.thumb.png.cdfd784aa05e294216ec9a8f0c50e91f.png    image.thumb.png.d0b9da60dc24dd82b6839b8cd69aa35c.png

      image.thumb.png.b734ee7c01435e472e5ee7a31f085c4a.png    image.thumb.png.dfecf66a7667c3dacd6245b9428cb611.png

    Although this is still five days out, the models have been solidly developing these possibilities for several days now and there is a good chance the conditions we actually get will be even more widespread than depicted.  I expect we will all be watching the next couple of runs with great interest....:cold:

    Yes backed up by fergies recent tweet  cold and potential disruptive weather on the way 

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    In days of old, When nights were cold, And models weren't invented, We might have hoped, we might have prayed, But we didn't drive ourselves demented.   The MJO the QBO,

    netweather members celebrate when the long-awaited easterly finally arrives...

    00z EC showing interesting battleground snow event for the north and west next Tuesday, as Atlantic frontal system moves in from the west and bumps into the cold air If only my wife could u

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    11 minutes ago, craigore said:

    Just a question for those more experienced. 

    Why are the bbc still going for N.Westerly sourced air nxt week 

    And still have temps in the south between 5&7c  

    They are not showing any thing like what the posters on this forum have been showing for the last 12 hrs now.

    How can there be temps like there forcasting wth minus 10-12c uppers from a frigid east. ??

    Im assuming they have there own mods and are completly disagreeing wth what what the majority of us in here are hoping for & seeing ??

     

    Us coldies have a little tendency to ramp just a smidgen:D but in weather terms is still along way in the future. As yet we don't know if gfs/ ukmo is the way forward or the ecm. We will have to watch it unfold as they will and as we get closer to t0 they will start hanging snow on the icicle(meat on the bone)

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    Posted
  • Location: North Somerset
  • Location: North Somerset

    GFS cold uppers not as deep as the 18z. A lot more 'milder' air around with mild sections.

    2m temperatures in most places (except high ground) not that cold, definately not at freezing or below during the day.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield - God's County
  • Location: Wakefield - God's County
    3 minutes ago, Chevron12345 said:

    GFS cold uppers not as deep as the 18z. A lot more 'milder' air around with mild sections.

    2m temperatures in most places (except high ground) not that cold, definately not at freezing or below during the day.

    ??..comments..??..I would've thought that we might have had a day or so with temps at 0c with this set up  given what charts have been popping up in the more 'reliable ' time frame ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl

    Once the cold air is established, how long will it last??

    The GFS from +6 to +198 shows the cold air flooding into Central Europe relentlessly....

    image.thumb.gif.c147c06431af19448f7b59c8005a6473.gif

    ECM at +120 has almost all of Europe under cold air - I can't remember seeing this too often....

    image.thumb.gif.954aa3e4c2b318c04ec3fca5103bf7e4.gif

    This could take some shifting, I suspect, and continue to affect our weather for at least the next two weeks.  February CET could be a low one!!

    Edited by Sky Full
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    Posted
  • Location: Ramsgate,East Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: BEASTERLYS
  • Location: Ramsgate,East Kent.
    3 minutes ago, K9 said:

    ??..comments..??..I would've thought that we might have had a day or so with temps at 0c with this set up  given what charts have been popping up in the more 'reliable ' time frame ?

    Exacally my point.. I guess we are just gonna have to be patient & wait for it to evolve..

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    Posted
  • Location: Ponteland
  • Location: Ponteland

     

    The current pattern used to occur more often ( but still infrequently) in the sixties and then as now it appears to be down to last minute now-casting,exciting for we snow lovers but just how long can one hold ones breath.I wonder if in the future forecasting techniques will make it possible to give a better accuracy than we have presently.

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
    27 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Are you a comedian?

    Any milder air if you could call it that gets squeezed out and energy heads south. There’s nothing mild showing in the more reliable timeframe.

    Agreed I've retrieved my towel and eaten huge humble pie.

    Excellent models over the last couple of days, I refused to believe until today.

    At last the vortex looking a bit out of shape.

    As for the comedian well I have to say nick is right.

    Seeing the lower heights to our east and south was exactly what was needed.

    Ice days look likely snow and ice and this cold air won't be removed as quickly as some might think.

    Reloads look like a possibility to.

    Interesting that the gem is awful, but the jma screaming northeasterly Easterly.

    One thing I have noticed is northerly and especially northeasterly do tend to lead to easterly and normally breakdown comes by getting milder air from the southeast but due to cold air across most of western Europe certainly looks like a bit of a seasonal feel.

    Even if it a week to see a real snow event will give me a wintry fix.

    Also worth noting that this winter has been much more seasonal.

    All good now we wait. 

    Edited by MR EXTREMES
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    UKMO extended has rain moving in from the west likely to turn to snow for some as it bumps into colder air

    ukm2.2018020800_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.f2a0feb3a4daec0c4b67f5e2e8365dcc.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
    55 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Are you a comedian?

    Any milder air if you could call it that gets squeezed out and energy heads south. There’s nothing mild showing in the more reliable timeframe.

    Aye, no "mild" air until at least T+216 on the 00z GFS run. 

    I have to say the models have turned around somewhat since yesterday - I was very sceptial after the 12z's yesterday, but things seem to be improving if it's cold you're after. What a turnaround!

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Early IKON is out - A big swing to the ECM thus far- 06 v 00z

    7C0B6231-ECDC-416A-99C4-A2D5CE329042.thumb.png.0a998565550bc2fc7b6802295b2155e2.pngB41F8856-E3F8-47A5-9EC3-D737E181B35F.thumb.png.a876d77d5c0f805b8d17079f5e3fdb97.png

    Edited by Steve Murr
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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
    Just now, Steve Murr said:

    Early IKON is out - A big swing to the ECM thus far-

    7C0B6231-ECDC-416A-99C4-A2D5CE329042.thumb.png.0a998565550bc2fc7b6802295b2155e2.png

    What timeframe is that for steve!!!hopefully 06z gfs follows its path!!

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    ^^ -10c line hits Norfolk @75.. 9am Sunday- :)

    Edited by Steve Murr
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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Yep- also notable is the ‘flatter’ Easterly at 96 - more than most models so far- Indicating more widespread snow flurries Tues-

    B9EEC372-771E-46AF-BC91-06B95806565C.thumb.png.1d24014a7e2f6170d6ba46bda50e49c4.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
    1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

    icon-1-120.png0z Vs 06z Icon icon-1-126.png?01-00

    Thats a big shift (pretty much what Steve has said already)

    You have it the wrong way round my friend.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    ^^ -10c line hits Norfolk @75.. 9am Sunday- :)

    Maybe I’m missing something probably not, but -10c isotherm is closing in just offshore at T+81.

    E95FFA22-5160-457F-BBB8-0B9FA13CD800.thumb.png.4a013406d38f8676382ef337f4151254.pngT90C54415DE-E2C9-4B4A-B60D-F810B6856804.thumb.png.647f4623137e4aad12d88683efe033ed.png

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    Maybe I’m missing something probably not, but -10c isotherm is closing in just offshore at T+81.

    E95FFA22-5160-457F-BBB8-0B9FA13CD800.thumb.png.4a013406d38f8676382ef337f4151254.pngT90C54415DE-E2C9-4B4A-B60D-F810B6856804.thumb.png.647f4623137e4aad12d88683efe033ed.png

    Was going by the IKON euro chart

    C35777B6-F000-42EA-AFB2-976130F54968.thumb.png.4f94b8b1c79583b86e8131e209de87b1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Couldnt have aligned it better myself...

    Floodgates ready to open....

    gfs-0-60.png

    Screenshot_2018-02-01-09-43-27.png

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
    1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

    Couldnt have aligned it better myself...

    Floodgates ready to open....

    gfs-0-60.png

    Screenshot_2018-02-01-09-43-27.png

    Question is is that better then the 00z at the same time!!

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