Model output discussion - mid January

[inghams85]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

MJO was already registering very high amplitude phase 7.

Yeah on the 21st but with a 7-10 day lag minimum the models won't have picked this up it doesn't pick up instantly. It's not even the MJO it's the AAM state that is the factor (Tamara explains it best) what it also means going forward is actually the further we go into Feb the more amp we get. Things will only get more and more blocky on the models

[Jason M]

Happy to admit I certainly didn't expect these charts tonight. Its one of those occasions where it's good to be surprised. That said, nothing has verified yet and I'm hoping we won't be seeing people have a pop at those who haven't been forecasting a cold spell because before the stones start being thrown its worth remembering that there are a plenty of peeps living in glass houses around this forum 

hopefully we will get a good set of charts in the morning. If we do then at that range its probably game on. The wait has been long enough!

[Neilsouth]

2 hours ago, tinybill said:

just watched  bbc news 24  weather  they saying its going  to be cold for the next 2 weeks   with sleet and snow at times

The week ahead was pretty rubbish actually, still nothing about the high over Russia, it's all about the Azores. Just could be some rain with sleet and snow at times, interspersed with drier interludes. Also nothing about the real cold that people have been going on about with the models. It just seemed a North West winter experience so far

[Sneachtastorm]

1 hour ago, tight isobar said:

Iso deffs-..never ending and comparable to most midd-north latt ...?

Gradients are cold where ever you turn your head!!!!

What does the purple area mean? 

[inghams85]

3 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

The week ahead was pretty rubbish actually, still nothing about the high over Russia, it's all about the Azores. Just could be some rain with sleet and snow at times, interspersed with drier interludes. Also nothing about the real cold that people have been going on about with the models. It just seemed a North West winter experience so far

It's outdated. See Ian Ferguson's latest Twitter post for What the Met really think now

[Neilsouth]

Just now, inghams85 said:

It's outdated. See Ian Ferguson's latest Twitter post for What the Met really think now

Outdated?

31st January 2018 Last updated at 21:08 - Which is only 3 hours old! - So they must be looking at today's models surely? 
 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

10 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

That chart was produced by EC 12z on 28/01/12 but it did not end up verifying like that. If I recall it just to the east of us. The last time we had highs like that in SE was in 1991?

Yes I know, it was in response to someone saying they hadn't seen a run like that before though.

[Snowman.]

5 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

Outdated?

31st January 2018 Last updated at 21:08 - Which is only 3 hours old! - So they must be looking at today's models surely? 
 

 

Production probably takes a day or so.

And we all know what can happen in a day.

[inghams85]

12 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

Outdated?

31st January 2018 Last updated at 21:08 - Which is only 3 hours old! - So they must be looking at today's models surely? 
 

 

It will have derived from 24 hour old data they can't update on every run or it would change 3 times a day and they would lose credibility 

Ignore what's on there get yourself on Twitter and hear from the horses mouth 

Edited February 1, 2018 by inghams85

[Daniel*]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes I know, it was in response to someone saying they hadn't seen a run like that before though.

Oh well anything sub -10C would do me nicely last winter I remember the most severe run from GFS I have seen in my model watching life, it had -20C uppers covering all of southern England even in West Country. And it was frigid and snowy throughout with low of -15C in the London area one night. The difference with what we have seen today there is much more reasonable chance. A long day time to sleep, will be up early for 00z. Night folks.  

Keep everything crosssed for more upgrades that’s not asking for too much. 

Good to see frosty back from the dead too ! 

[Daniel*]

17 minutes ago, Sneachtastorm said:

What does the purple area mean? 

A frozen carcass of a rodent? More seriously freezing level is at 0 meters and below.

Edited February 1, 2018 by Daniel*

[Neilsouth]

1 minute ago, inghams85 said:

It will have derived from 24 hour old data they can't update on every run or it would change 3 times a day and they would lose credibility 

Ignore what's on there get yourself on Twitter and hear from the horses mouth 

Thank you, do you have the twitter details of the people I should follow?

( My last post on this )

[MattTarrant]

2 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

Thank you, do you have the twitter details of the people I should follow?

( My last post on this )

I suggest following Ian Ferguson. He focuses more on the West country but does represent well what the Met Office are thinking. 

[inghams85]

4 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

Thank you, do you have the twitter details of the people I should follow?

( My last post on this )

I'd just stick to Ian Ferguson. He posted a lot on here last year. He's the forecaster for the South West region and all his info is direct from the Met and your welcome!

[Jemma Croton]

27 minutes ago, Sneachtastorm said:

What does the purple area mean? 

Nipples like bloody bullets is what it means.

i am seriously in awe of this 18Z run. I’m almost too scared to sleep in case I wake to see it’s all been undone. I’ve a feeling though that this night just be a pretty memorable period of weather (and indeed model watching) the past 36 hrs or so have been riveting to say the least

[Cheshire Freeze]

Never bank on an easterly (even with seemingly cross model agreement) until it's within 48-72 hrs out... That's the golden rule. We've been here umpteen times before over the years.

On a related note, that 18z GFS is a tad yummy.

[Daniel*]

Surprised by that then again here we’re looking at it from our little patch.

 

[Daniel*]

From what I’ve seen from GFS steady she goes uppers not quite cold as cold minor nag at T+192 from 18z and 00z remarkably alike big snow risk evident. Several incidences of this so far..

[Sneachtastorm]

GFS-Not as frigid in the SE longevity wise as previous run. The Western beast -8 to -11 uppers cross NW for a fair old while. 

Edited February 1, 2018 by Sneachtastorm

[Daniel*]

UMKO is pretty good when was the last time we had a decent chart like that at day 3? The set up likewise to GFS has potential to give substantial fall(s) of snow.

T+72

T+144 left me a bit deflated compared to GFS quite poor.

GFS 00z at day 10 nothing seen here that’s a horror show which I can’t see happening...

Overall not bad but not quite as good as what was to be expected really...onwards and upwards.  

Edited February 1, 2018 by Daniel*

[Mucka]

ECM best of the big 3 out to 96h,  let's see how it play out

[shaky]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

ECM best of the big 3 out to 96h,  let's see how it play out

Man mucka its got -11 -12 uppers widely across england at t120 hours!!gfs is better than the 12z from yesterday infact way better and the ukmo looks pretty good!!couldnt be in a better position this morning to be fair!!

[chris55]

Cold ECM this morning!! Brrrrrr.

[Mucka]

7 minutes ago, shaky said:

Man mucka its got -11 -12 uppers widely across england at t120 hours!!gfs is better than the 12z from yesterday infact way better and the ukmo looks pretty good!!couldnt be in a better position this morning to be fair!!

Yup it is the coldest Op run yet with Easterly flow at 144

Going to be some excited boys and girls this morning.

Edited February 1, 2018 by Mucka

[shaky]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Yup it is the coldest Op run yet with Easterly flow at 144

Going to be some excited boys and girls this morning.

Even of you.look at ukmo that low to the northwest looks deeper and more amplified compared to yesterdays 12z 144 hour chart!!should be a better 12z from the ukmo especially late on!!