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Model output discussion - mid January

Paul

By Paul
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The Northern Ramper Accomplished

The Northern Ramper

Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
Posted
53 minutes ago, metaltron said:

The ICON 18z still doesn't look great. The Azores high is further east at 96z. It's not awful but it will be pretty disappointing if it's proved correct. 

iconnh-0-96_jip2.png

Icon vs everything

 

I'd quit model watching if it won this contest.

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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted
27 minutes ago, RAIN RAIN RAIN said:

But for the m4 southwards... 

2FD20B2F00000578-3385901-image-a-7_14520

Not on this run. No M4 divide if it verifies as shown.

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)

No outlier, cold run yes, unsupported No!

DE286C80-74F2-4562-AEC9-D1CA5978D46B.thumb.gif.6c6ae3555de755b39379a9e5b99d5dc1.gif

Edited by karlos1983
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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)

Another cracking set 18z..

London..

Nothing suspect either...great stuff.

MT8_London_ens (2).png

Edited by tight isobar
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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted
1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

One of the coldest runs in the last 30 years

Really? Not doubting you but how do you determine that?

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
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Posted (edited)

A record highly amplified MJO wave moving into western Pacific may be why we’ve seen so much model volatility and resultant angst from coldies over recent days. May explain why the models didn’t see next week coming until short notice, particularly GFS.

 

Edited by Nick F
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The Northern Ramper Accomplished

The Northern Ramper

Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
Posted

Quite a classic winter battleground with a Scandinavian high setting up with a powerful looking Atlantic trying to get in.

Usually in this set up we have mild pushing in against cold and it's a will it won't it breakdown scenario.

Now though (and I've never seen this before) with -12 easterly uppers vs -10 westerly uppers I don't know what's going to happen, I better need a bloody shovel though ?

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Really? Not doubting you but how do you determine that?

You won't see many comparable suites as this-for sure-..

Absolute corker..and deep agree.

A rare breed...@london -ens!!!

And the dive is well within grasp..so expect further dip..as the cold takes hold!!!

MT8_London_ens (2).png

Edited by tight isobar
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

One of the coldest runs in the last 30 years

ECH0-168_prq3.GIF

Daytime max temps of -5c in the SE.

 

2 minutes ago, BlackburnChris said:

last night u said everything as flat as a pancake

Last night it was - tonight it isn't.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Another cracking set 18z..

London..

Nothing suspect either...great stuff.

MT8_London_ens (2).png

Best ensembles yet I’ve been saying that a few times lately mean in London stays at -5C or below uppers from 1st all the way to the 15th crikey - two weeks of cold and no real sign of let up. 

Edited by Daniel*
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 minute ago, BlackburnChris said:

maybe u could learn a lesson from that lol

 

Yes, try to avoid posting a flat set the one time in a thousand that the more amplified suite verifies.

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

mean while as we look at the models for this upcoming cold spell it is snawing massive big flakes and settling here in North East Scotland... just the start of the epic month of winter coming up and if the models are correct it will be the entire UK joining in and not just us lucky lot in Scotland. more upgrades from the models tomorrow I feel and I do wonder what that guy that said winters over due to SW winds is feeling like tonight..:cold:

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, try to avoid posting a flat set the one time in a thousand that the more amplified suite verifies.

"It's not what you say but how you say it"

I think that is what he is getting at here.

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BlackburnChris Enthusiast

BlackburnChris

Posted
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, try to avoid posting a flat set the one time in a thousand that the more amplified suite verifies.

nothings verified yet ....

 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 minute ago, SN0WM4N said:

"It's not what you say but how you say it"

I think that is what he is getting at here.

If I remember rightly, my quote was '18z GEFS are as flat as a pancake across the atlantic' or words to that effect.

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inghams85 Community Regular

inghams85

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham
Posted
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, try to avoid posting a flat set the one time in a thousand that the more amplified suite verifies.

I think the key was to second guess the chances of this changing and the key here was knowing model bias. Two things stood out. Models struggle with blocking in Scandinavia and models struggle with MJO and Glaam changes attributed to the state of the AAM. Sometimes ensembles are absolutely useless if an op can't get to grips with these changes so will lower res ensemble members. Just some feedback going forward into other scenarios that might play out like this

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted (edited)

For the Netherlands interestingly.... hardly getting above freezing consecutively from the 5th all the way out to 15th and many members go even colder from roughly the 12th; something to watch quite possibly coldest severe weather may come further ahead - and we may yet to truly see it unravel in NWP.

71B00CC5-4711-434A-9621-FC57E26BBE37.thumb.jpeg.066382e618f47973399afdd580b6500e.jpeg

Edited by Daniel*
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 minute ago, inghams85 said:

I think the key was to second guess the chances of this changing and the key here was knowing model bias. Two things stood out. Models struggle with blocking in Scandinavia and models struggle with MJO and Glaam changes attributed to the state of the AAM. Sometimes ensembles are absolutely useless if an op can't get to grips with these changes so will lower res ensemble members. Just some feedback going forward into other scenarios that might play out like this

MJO was already registering very high amplitude phase 7.

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

ECH0-168_prq3.GIF

Daytime max temps of -5c in the SE.

 

Last night it was - tonight it isn't.

That chart was produced by EC 12z on 28/01/12 but it did not end up verifying like that. If I recall it just to the east of us. The last time we had highs like that in SE was in 1991?

Edited by Daniel*
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