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Model output discussion - mid January


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In days of old, When nights were cold, And models weren't invented, We might have hoped, we might have prayed, But we didn't drive ourselves demented.   The MJO the QBO,

netweather members celebrate when the long-awaited easterly finally arrives...

00z EC showing interesting battleground snow event for the north and west next Tuesday, as Atlantic frontal system moves in from the west and bumps into the cold air If only my wife could u

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I think we've an epic February on our hands. 2009 teases - a cold December, mild January and that famous snow event in the February. Perhaps even a Feb 1986 with the cold. I think even in Weston-super-Mare we may see a good bit of snow! 

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS now aligned to the ECM @96 with snow showers moving into the SE corner in SUB -10c air...

stella tastic

47A749DD-49E1-4731-8AF6-CDC99B6D8C8E.thumb.png.c81212d8ca4484ce9be009835418a653.pngFE790C52-BDD8-4ED3-9055-ED0C8BC845BD.thumb.png.07015ff68251334d2a2cf0a523293947.png

Looking good Steve ?. Just wanted to say keep up the good work on here , I love your posts/commentary it makes this forum. And there's loads more very good posters but Steve is number 1 LOL . 

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So let’s talk parameters

Theta E 6c. Check

735A5FD1-F912-411E-B016-E298A79617B5.thumb.png.8ff007472fca98c9f835176d07f6764a.png

 

850 Thicknesses - 1260-70 incoming check

A1EBA35A-B7BA-4F46-9946-70864CB591C6.thumb.png.34fbe4f3f1808065216a6b9449a4ce5e.png

850 Temps -12 / -13c   check

FD507B8C-65E8-4300-B0F4-575ED03DA416.thumb.png.e1979b56ca1930df23ddfe03ea978929.png

 

Convective snow Window from 96 to 126 from the east = 30 hours.... 

ideal location - Suffolk / Mid Kent / East Kent - Then eyes to the NW..

s

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5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Nice back swerve...

And for compansation..we have mighty cold ebbing into the north atlantic..

Its one way traffic 2 cold!!!!

gfs-0-108.png

Yes I noticed the back swerve too tbh, much better than the 12z imo

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Wow what a 18z GFS. These upgrades really have progressed fast in the last day or two. 

These really are remarkable charts. Yes we may have seen slightly colder uppers than this reaching our shores from the East before but to have an extensive mass of -10 uppers approaching from the West also is truly amazing.

 

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