Model output discussion - mid January

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yep think everyone would take P2 ? 

 

I will take a 19 please.

[Bottled Snow]

7 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yep think everyone would take P2 ? 

and believe it or not there are quite a few synoptically even better ....

Night all

 BS

[inghams85]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I will take a 19 please.

Perfect timing that! Watch this timeline build. I'm excited to see some of the ops from Tuesday next week!

[Rocheydub]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

3 hours ago, inghams85 said:

 

Well said chaps!

You say it best, when you say.......

Edited January 26, 2018 by Rocheydub
typo

[Daniel*]

Pete’s northerly cold snap is firmly agreed upon roughly 48 hour window of possible wintriness as Feb comes in afterwards MLB makes its prescience known turning anticyclonic.

interestingly I do note a member it’s not quite alone P15 that doesn’t shut off the cold air and extends it a smaller cluster going for it. Very unlikely to happen but stranger things have happened.

Some real eye candy take P19 with a respectable mean too at day 16.  

Edited January 26, 2018 by Daniel*

[feb1991blizzard]

JMA ens broadly following EPS but slightly better with euro troughing slightly further west.

[ICE COLD]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I will take a 19 please.

Yer that's a stonking NH view on that one . Much better block would last longer I would of though ? Let's hope something comes off like this . -10 850s from the east will do as long as we all get buried ?

[feb1991blizzard]

Worth baring in mind though we must temper expectations, it basically is only the GEFS that are going for these outrageous solutions in any quantity (YET), with the possible exception of GLOSEA5 and EC46 which we cant see a breakdown of individual members and anyway that's week 3,

[snowray]

Not a bad day today, i have certainly seen enough to encourage me and at the very least todays runs keep our hopes intact for a nice early to mid February freeze.

[Snowman.]

0z GFS is so close to being one of the best FIs but falls just too short.

Anyway trend continues.

[Mucka]

39 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

0z GFS is so close to being one of the best FIs but falls just too short.

Anyway trend continues.

I don't know where this output came from tbh, so much more amplified than previous model output.

The majority of ensemble members are much flatter at day 10 but that is a very promising day 10 chart from GFS Op to say the least.

GEM is quite different.

Edited January 26, 2018 by Mucka

[Snowy Hibbo]

I know these have already been posted, but bigger picture EC46

Day 20-25

Day 25-30

 

Day 30-35

 

Day 35-40

 

Day 40-45

 

Full NAO forecast from the EC46.

Edited January 26, 2018 by Snowy Hibbo
Fixing to latest run.

[nick sussex]

The search for the Holy Grail continues.

This is turning into about another 3 sequels to the Indiana Jones series.

I suppose at this point people are wondering whether any of these better outputs will ever see the light of day or whether they'll remain locked at the later stages just out of reach.

Looking at the De Bilt ECM ensembles quite a divergence appearing around the 4th February, the dew points are a giveaway in terms of sourcing of air and the wind clusters show that split between something from the east/ne and the rest.

As opposed to the last search for the easterly if it does appear there will be some deep cold to tap into so that's not really the issue, in these situations its normally how far west the pattern will back.

Without the ongoing and strong MJO signal you'd be less confident of a colder outcome, so far that has teleconnected well in terms of the upstream pattern and that point was made by NOAA in their last update. Even with the La Nina which is now weakening theres no reason to think that the MJO will give up the ghost when faced with some interference from say Rossby waves etc.

So for the timebeing we're still in the game but would like to score before it goes to penalties!

 

[Faronstream]

850hpa uppers down to almost -20 on GFS 00Z run. It is defiently the best this winter

[Summer Sun]

The main 3 at t168 all offer different options

UKMO offers some light precipitation here and there whilst ECM looks dry for the vast majority

GFS looks similar to the beebs thought last night of lows crossing the north and high pressure building up from the south

[Daniel*]

23 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

850hpa uppers down to almost -20 on GFS 00Z run. It is defiently the best this winter

Yep for Scandinavia we do have the very cold air make it go for it here but it glances the E/SE of England. Would be very cold isobars aren’t exactly tight packed minus lows in the double figures even in England?..

[jvenge]

7 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Yep for Scandinavia we do have the very cold air make it go for it here but it glances the E/SE of England. Would be very cold isobars aren’t exactly tight packed minus lows in the double figures even in England?..

Hmm. Where you take those charts from actually show T2 temperatures, so not much point to speculate. Even though at T312 it's already a speculation.

 

[MR EXTREMES]

45 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The search for the Holy Grail continues.

This is turning into about another 3 sequels to the Indiana Jones series.

I suppose at this point people are wondering whether any of these better outputs will ever see the light of day or whether they'll remain locked at the later stages just out of reach.

Looking at the De Bilt ECM ensembles quite a divergence appearing around the 4th February, the dew points are a giveaway in terms of sourcing of air and the wind clusters show that split between something from the east/ne and the rest.

As opposed to the last search for the easterly if it does appear there will be some deep cold to tap into so that's not really the issue, in these situations its normally how far west the pattern will back.

Without the ongoing and strong MJO signal you'd be less confident of a colder outcome, so far that has teleconnected well in terms of the upstream pattern and that point was made by NOAA in their last update. Even with the La Nina which is now weakening theres no reason to think that the MJO will give up the ghost when faced with some interference from say Rossby waves etc.

So for the timebeing we're still in the game but would like to score before it goes to penalties!

 

Serious doubts over anything more than a cold snap.

The Azores is yet again a thorn in our side.

La Nina is dictating the patterns and stopping the full force of the mjo.

For the last few runs it's slowly shifting the pattern east with the Azores toppling.

Very disappointed for the east and southern areas that have seen cold but wet conditions.

Still we wait for a true Siberian express.

Jet profile also suggests a strong northern arm pushing system across to our far north with little time for blocking to happen.

So toppler looks most likely.

But the north still has a cold snap before it settles down although dryer.

[ICE COLD]

17 minutes ago, jvenge said:

Hmm. Where you take those charts from actually show T2 temperatures, so not much point to speculate. Even though at T312 it's already a speculation.

 

Hmmm , is he not aloud to speculate ? It is the MOD thread . He was just saying the flow is quite slack of the continent. You would get low mins if that came off . GFS is rubbish at ground temps especially that far out . Anyway this is just speculation ?

[Nick F]

Rather underwhelming 00z EC operational run and 11-15 day EPS mean, however the 00z GEFS mean looks interesting in 11-15 day range and looks kind of similar to what EC46 was showing last night with regards to energy diving SE under a ridge over Northern Europe, the 00z EPS control follows a similar route too.

 GEFS day 14

interesting tweet from a US Met about EC perhaps playing catch up with the amplitude of the MJO wave, As many may have noticed, GEFS much more amped into phase 7 than EC and this maybe reflected their output.

Also plot below shows why CFS has been looking good for blocking prospects too

... and a little more hope for those thinking of throwing the towel in

 

[jvenge]

Just now, ICE COLD said:

Hmmm , is he not aloud to speculate ? It is the MOD thread . He was just saying the flow is quite slack of the continent. You would get low mins if that came off . GFS is rubbish at ground temps especially that far out . Anyway this is just speculation ?

Well, it is the model OUTPUT thread. Not the "What the models might show if they didn't show what they did" thread.So why say double digit low temperatures, when the actual chart output is available and says no to that? That setup is not locked in long enough to drive temperatures lower. Even at T312, when it already has almost no chance of verifying, we don't need to start making up temperatures when the output is available for it.

 

[tight isobar]

Still lots to be resolved..and ens indicate the uncertainty!!!..

 What we do-not want is the merging/morphing of atlantic warmth-with that of north-african/iberian...as the door then starts to shut...

Upstream looks vunrable but has potential also for a squeeze of waa...

Lets see how the 6z deciphers matters!!??

Dont hit the panic button just yet!!

I get the feeling 6z gfs may ease tensions??!!

Edited January 26, 2018 by tight isobar

[bluearmy]

Gfs op still with the WAA post day 8 which will amplify the Atlantic 

Edited January 26, 2018 by bluearmy

[frosty ground]

North Westerly Leading to North Easterly leading to Easterly...... 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

GFS 6z looking encouraging upto t216 with the deep low over the eastern seaboard heading to the west of Greenland and keeping it amplified over the N Atlantic.