Model output discussion - mid January

[ArHu3]

53 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

I,m suspecting that tonight's ECM will be very much at the. Mild end of the specturm.

nope, it's pretty much in the middle, sometimes a little colder, sometimes a little warmer but the operational pretty much follows median and average of the ensemble, except day 10 which is a warm outlier

 

Edited January 24, 2018 by ArHu3

[karlos1983]

well looks to me like the ecm loses its way at D5-6......D10 is miles out.

[JeffC]

Ok, well I accept I'm possibly less geographically challenged than Skem

 but when you get charts like this at only 168 hrs then maybe there's a bit of hope ...

Edited January 25, 2018 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..

[bluearmy]

The spread on the eps still say that anything and everything is possible 

[ANYWEATHER]

• Gfs showing mild in the longer range now showing cold ecm showing cold now showing mild in the longer range watch this space..?..

[tight isobar]

14 minutes ago, nicknacknoo said:

 because here in the south  we've 2 months of winter left.

Ok..

The best way atm-without a bore draw analysis, is to highlight-that the road has been rocky and unfair, in certain respects.

But you dont dig for gold and expect to unearth it as soon as your' on a supposed mine!..

However, we have opened up some cunning ground...and reward is likely immenent!!.

An, analysis later via my way of thought

Edited January 24, 2018 by tight isobar

[damianslaw]

Mmm the models don't look quite right this evening, especially ECM,how can you have a very strong high pressure out to our west but also a flat jet for days on end.. with precursor for low heights to drop through on a more NW-SE aligned jet.

My own view is we will see some form of strong mid atlantic block to herald Feb with low pressure anchoring down from the NW, chilly rather than mild, but the key feature to keep an eye on is the pacific ridge set to build northwards into the Pole, this is likely to put a squeeze on the PV and enable cold pooling to the NE, somethign we haven't really seen so far this season, and with I suspect a weaker atlantic, the colder dense air to the NE could eventually edge out the atlantic influence - but may not be until well into the second week of Feb allowing the omni-ever present heights to our west to build NE...

Edited January 24, 2018 by damianslaw

[ArHu3]

18 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

well looks to me like the ecm loses its way at D5-6......D10 is miles out.

that probably because this plume has higher resolution data available (points for every 6 hours vs 24 hours)

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, ArHu3 said:

that probably because this plume has higher resolution data available (points for every 6 hours vs 24 hours)

Catch and cast effect..i wish some would note;

[winterof79]

58 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

nope, it's pretty much in the middle, sometimes a little colder, sometimes a little warmer but the operational pretty much follows median and average of the ensemble, except day 10 which is a warm outlier

 

Lets face it ECM is all over the gaff

[Paul]

Bunch of posts related to winter being over or not (yawn!), which is obviously not model discussion have been moved to the relevant thread. 

 

[Bottled Snow]

16 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Ok..

The best way atm-without a bore draw analysis, is to highlight-that the road has been rocky and unfair, in certain respects.

But you dont dig for gold and expect to unearth it as soon as your' on a supposed mine!..

However, we have opened up some cunning ground...and reward is likely immenent!!.

An, analysis later via my way of thought

love the way you phrase your posts?

looking forward to your analysis later

also hope you right about pattern change to colder weather. 

BS

[tight isobar]

Lets do a filament/dynamic evaluation of the gfs 18z out...

Then i can evaluate some depth...'perhaps'..?

Edited January 24, 2018 by tight isobar

[winterof79]

Lets face it ECM has no idea

[Scandinavian High.]

Lots of uncertainty within the models all over place something could be brewing ..

[Guest]

When does the Spring Model thread open?   And I cant find the Net Weather Spring forecast anywhere.

 

Oh and to stay on topic, GFS looks ok ish ECM looks pants and the others all seem all over the place as well, its always the same when none standard uk winter fare is just around the corner.

Edited January 24, 2018 by Guest

[tight isobar]

Some would do well to understand the MJO-FORCING- and the hemispheric ramifications...

Pac rig-and russian warm enhanched,  and a tilt of head would compensate!..

Great momentum.. 

[tight isobar]

Madden-julian oscillation...

Aka-mjo...

Has phasing for euro trough development..

And imo..the rest is an easy observation!!..

Mlb-into conversition of height push- into greenland..then evolve-to scandinavia point refer!....

 

[Duane S.]

Another all knowing sage ....? Anyway, putting aside the wind up winter’s over tosh. We continue to sit, wait and watch.

Still a whole week to go before Feb, the month which historically is the best month to produce down south, even gets started...

The MJO trundling along nicely thank you very much, amplification hopefully the name of the game. The vortex has seen better days and a strat warming likely to add to the fun (and the uncertainty).

Yes we need the dominoes to fall for us but Feb week 2 definitely up for grabs and thereafter, who knows. I don’t and nor does anybody else on this forum.

Edited January 24, 2018 by s4lancia

[DR(S)NO]

48 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Nope. Winter was over 18 january 2018. Not seen anything but above average being peddled in the reliable since then.

But Ice Man surely you can see the irony in talking about the ‘reliable’ and then writing off the next 6 weeks?

[Guest]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Madden-julian oscillation...

Aka-mjo...

Has phasing for euro trough development..

And imo..the rest is an easy observation!!..

Mlb-into conversition of height push- into greenland..then evolve-to scandinavia point refer!....

 

The latest week ahead BBC forecast just said High Pressure moving up the western side of the UK bringing in North East winds, so I'm guessing that high could get up to Greenland.??

[tight isobar]

Last pop..

Watch on n-hem, view of the clock rotate of atlantic height..and pacific ebbing away of heights...to evaluate a formidable link to cold for north-west europe.....

[ArHu3]

38 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Lets face it ECM is all over the gaff

A different way of plotting and mine are plots for Zuid Holland, where I live and way more to the west and closer to the coast (and suited for you guys south of the m4? even better would be region south west) 

[Chesil View]

1 hour ago, ArHu3 said:

nope, it's pretty much in the middle, sometimes a little colder, sometimes a little warmer but the operational pretty much follows median and average of the ensemble, except day 10 which is a warm outlier

 

'Yep, on the mild side at dat ten

[karlos1983]

13 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Another all knowing sage ....? Anyway, putting aside the wind up winter’s over tosh. We continue to sit, wait and watch.

Still a whole week to go before Feb, the month which historically is the best month to produce down south, even gets started...

The MJO trundling along nicely thank you very much, amplification hopefully the name of the game. The vortex has seen better days and a strat warming likely to add to the fun (and the uncertainty).

Yes we need the dominoes to fall for us but Feb week 2 definitely up for grabs and thereafter, who knows. I don’t and nor does anybody else on this forum.

SPOT ON ?

ENS been hinting for a while now that as we head towards February a change to colder conditions is certainly possible. Definitely a case at the moment of a bit of patience to see how the pattern evolves at the turn of the month. 

 

Edited January 24, 2018 by karlos1983