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Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards


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Got a wee bit of a bad feeling about tomorrow just now for the central belt. Flow seems to have changed to bit more south of easterly, which to my eye would take the worst of it towards Stirling area? 

Anyone want to give me some technical reassurance? 

@CatchMyDrift ??? 

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This will get lost amid the avalanche of posts....scuse the pun. LADIES AND GENTLEMEN FOR ONLY THE SECOND TIME IN 7 AND A BIT YEARS I HAVE A MEASURABLE SNOWFALL!  Only a cm mind but a landmar

Let's just start with the money shot - both the ECM and the GFS agree that, as of Wednesday 12pm, the upper air temperatures will be sitting at -14/-15C over most of Scotland, the wind will be pretty

We had a bit of a struggle to get to the hospital this morning, the bus was 20 mins late and the taxi got fed up waiting and had gone. But we got there and hubby had the op, it's not cancer it's just

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8 minutes ago, Ruzzi said:

Got a wee bit of a bad feeling about tomorrow just now for the central belt. Flow seems to have changed to bit more south of easterly, which to my eye would take the worst of it towards Stirling area? 

Anyone want to give me some technical reassurance? 

@CatchMyDrift ??? 

I'm a wee bit twitchy on that as well. Would make me less coastal (just at the very point I want to be coastal!) and put me 40-50 miles away from potential convective landfall around Berwick-Upon-Tweed and with 1500ft of The Lammermuirs in between.

If it goes wrong here I won't be able to show my face in Leith for weeks, even promised a pals wee girl that she'd definitely absolutely be able to go sledging. Oh the shame of it if I mess up... :wallbash:

 

Edited by Paul Martin
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3 minutes ago, Paul Martin said:

I'm a wee bit twitchy on that as well. Would make me less coastal (just at the very point I want to be coastal!) and put me 40-50 miles away from potential convective landfall around Berwick-Upon-Tweed and with 1500ft of The Lammermuirs in between.

If it goes wrong here I won't be able to show my face in Leith for weeks, even promised a pals wee girl that she'd definitely absolutely be able to go sledging. Oh the shame of it if I mess up... :wallbash:

 

So basically what you're saying is that you were the one that f$#ing jinxed it ??

Edited by Ruzzi
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8 hours ago, More Snow said:

Did somebody mention SNAW???

Jeez, ah thought that we were all gonnae huv tae come looking fur your remains, in August during this years Spring Thaw  :hi:

 

Big Innes :D

Edited by Big Innes Madori
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2 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

It’s great to see so many snow reports already, the real fun and games will start later tonight and tomorrow.

Euro4 looks good to me @Ruzzi:)

804CA840-3BBF-4047-89CA-2A581608440B.thumb.gif.7c283ecaba8bb5d465422f4152947829.gif

CFFAD534-3BC1-4C9D-9E5C-8ED7440A291E.thumb.gif.424ebf265bff9203ef2b2b0e0e33ff83.gif

CAD2DC5C-2571-46FD-92E4-F45F2D7947CE.thumb.gif.fbf6e44d2ed0089f8aa526f4321a084a.gif

 

 

 

 

Doesn't look too shabby, settling the nerves a little lol. Still does look a fair bit lighter across the central belt when compared with south-east Scotland, eastern parts and central Scotland. Cumbernauld / Stirling do look in a prime position from tomorrow onwards 

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Steady those nerves now people! :)

@Paul Martin quite right - those -9/-10c uppers don't cut it for coastal areas in an easterly set up but we should be sub -12c this afternoon (with lowering thicknesses) - which I'm more comfortable with.

Having said that the C, T & F Met O forecast still puts us in th grey zone overnight....but I'm choosing to ignore that. :D

Tonight:

Scattered snow showers this evening, these becoming more frequent and heavy later in the night with some accumulations especially away from the coasts. Strengthening winds and feeling bitterly cold. Minimum temperature -8 °C.

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18022712_2_2700.gif

23 minutes ago, Paul Martin said:

I don't have those but the last 12 hours had us in that isobaric kink showing around -8 or -9 uppers in these parts - that's a wee bit too close for comfort in Leith and probably Duddingston. Forecast was always that the down to -15 uppers would rattle in from the east as the day progresses. 

yep. -10 is the requirement for us i think, looks like uppers really drop this morning

Edited by JoeShmoe
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7 minutes ago, Ruzzi said:

Doesn't look too shabby, settling the nerves a little lol. Still does look a fair bit lighter across the central belt when compared with south-east Scotland, eastern parts and central Scotland. Cumbernauld / Stirling do look in a prime position from tomorrow onwards 

@Stormeh has answered you for now :)

Big snow showers coming through at work at Kelso but never coming to much:

20180227_090825.thumb.jpg.74f54b15a806b2fc2298f45d195ae401.jpg

If the Euro4 is right I'll be hitting the @Hawesy prediction level by tomorrow night, 23cm.

Edited by CatchMyDrift
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23 minutes ago, Ruzzi said:

Got a wee bit of a bad feeling about tomorrow just now for the central belt. Flow seems to have changed to bit more south of easterly, which to my eye would take the worst of it towards Stirling area? 

 

And :rofl:

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7 minutes ago, Ruzzi said:

Doesn't look too shabby, settling the nerves a little lol. Still does look a fair bit lighter across the central belt when compared with south-east Scotland, eastern parts and central Scotland. Cumbernauld / Stirling do look in a prime position from tomorrow onwards 

Yes those areas look better but we should all do very well......

hopefully! :):D

I am just happy we have the possibility of something epic and no boring rain and wind.

 

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9 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

18022712_2_2700.gif

yep. -10 is the requirement for us i think, looks like uppers really drop this morning

Looking at those ever colder uppers I'd be surprised, nay horrified, if we don't get widespread convective snow showers piling in from the east. It just wouldn't make sense not to. I'd have to give up any pretence of understanding anything at all about the way these setups work. Probably too early to pour a nerve settling drink... 

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The last shower we had was really intense and of the powder variety.   Quite hypnotising really once the wind started to whip it up.   If forecasts hold true and we get the predicted pummelling, with that wind we will be in some mess!

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43 minutes ago, Ruzzi said:

Got a wee bit of a bad feeling about tomorrow just now for the central belt. Flow seems to have changed to bit more south of easterly, which to my eye would take the worst of it towards Stirling area? 

Anyone want to give me some technical reassurance? 

@CatchMyDrift ??? 

I’ve saud for days now the Fife and Tayside coast will do really well as the isobars were always south of east,,,I think Edinburgh and the Central belt will miss out on the heavier snow unfortunately. Unless there is a few troughs that crop us in the flow which cannot be ruled out 

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20 minutes ago, TN9 said:

Good morning.. As you can see I thought I would post here as I look at your thread when we have nothing which is more often than not...kentish snow this is... Rare these days..and I thought you might like to see it...frame it even..traffic Scotland with its cameras has always gave me my fix and your thread too so I thought ide send you a pic of southern snow...:pardon::hi:

Great stuff mate!

Get out there and play in it like a little kid and throw some snowballs at the neighbors windows, that’s what I do and I am 30 :D

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7 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

I’ve saud for days now the Fife and Tayside coast will do really well as the isobars were always south of east,,,I think Edinburgh and the Central belt will miss out on the heavier snow unfortunately. Unless there is a few troughs that crop us in the flow which cannot be ruled out 

there are troughs in the flow

20180227.0422.PPVE89.png

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22 minutes ago, Paul Martin said:

Looking at those ever colder uppers I'd be surprised, nay horrified, if we don't get widespread convective snow showers piling in from the east. It just wouldn't make sense not to. I'd have to give up any pretence of understanding anything at all about the way these setups work. Probably too early to pour a nerve settling drink... 

Radar suggests the north sea snaw machine is cranking up in earnest now.

Quite a few heavy showers building off the outer Forth.

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Got 3.5cm snow here just outside Sauchen, Aberdeenshire.  Temperature rising quite quickly - was -2C at 8am but now 1C and snowmelt starting on the roof and fences - when the sun comes out its amazing how quickly the snow starts to recede on the slates. 

Just imagine if these weather synoptics had occurred at the start of January rather than at the tail end of February - I get feeling melting between the snow showers is going to be an issue here.

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