North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards

[Chris.R]

Well last night went even worse than I was expecting, and my expectations were very low. There just wasn’t enough precipitation around. Don’t think I even had much hail yesterday apart from a few bits. Very strange day. The only thing I will remember from yesterday is the wind which was incredibly strong. .  

[SP1986]

7 minutes ago, wrightc23 said:

The MetO do seem to be on a good run particularly of highlighting non events. I'm still clinging to the thought of the upcoming solar minimum in 2019-2020!

Unfortunately the last Maunder minimum was an unlikely convergence of some well timed events (increase in volcanic activity, weakening of the thermohaline circulation and the minimum). If a Maunder minimum struck now it would have nowhere near the effect the last one did. (Especially in NW England ?) and of course add the current baseline climate warming. 

We possibly would see a more traditional winter though

Edited January 17, 2018 by SP1986

[Thunder Snow]

rain showers here so no hope later

[Barmada_Casten]

Any talk of any decent snow affecting Cumbria will chiefly affect higher ground. Wouldn't expect much at lower levels anywhere.

[karyo]

1 minute ago, SP1986 said:

Unfortunately the last Maunder minimum was an unlikely convergence of some well timed events (increase in volcanic activity, weakening of the thermohaline circulation and the minimum). If a Maunder minimum struck now it would have nowhere near the effect the last one did. (Especially in NW England ?)

I do not expect global temperatures to drop (like some people think it will) but it should at least increase the frequency of southerly tracking jet and northern blocking so our winters will be better than now. Of course, we will still be fighting with the warmer sea temperatures.

 

[Chris.R]

I like this. 

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

Cold with wintry showers on Friday, locally heavy and thundery. A frosty start on Saturday, but mostly fine and sunny. Slowly turning milder on Sunday with rain preceded by snow.

[SP1986]

1 minute ago, karyo said:

I do not expect global temperatures to drop (like some people think it will) but it should at least increase the frequency of southerly tracking jet and northern blocking so our winters will be better than now. Of course, we will still be fighting with the warmer sea temperatures.

 

Yes I suspect the frequency of colder weather would increase. We really need a significant increase in volcanic activity to achieve a more pronounced change.. it will happen eventually. I know you follow the Volcanic activity.. so I'm sure it'll become obvious when it increases.

[Had Worse]

Total snow in 18 hours with some melt.

 

[karyo]

7 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

Yes I suspect the frequency of colder weather would increase. We really need a significant increase in volcanic activity to achieve a more pronounced change.. it will happen eventually. I know you follow the Volcanic activity.. so I'm sure it'll become obvious when it increases.

Yes, several things need to fall in place for us that's why good winters are so rare. 

By the way, I disagree with people saying that this winter promised so much and hasn't delivered. Certainly hasn't delivered but it never promised either. All the long range models went for a mild winter, some even super mild. Only the models toyed with cold outcomes in the short to medium range but that happens on most winters.

The big loss for our region was the December slider. That was pure powder snow that lasted on the ground in the Midlands for a few days. Everything else after that was marginal and slushy. Even tonight's event further north won't be proper powder snow.

[Hocus Pocus]

Another projected snow event bites the dust, nothing but sleet/rain in the early hours despite the warnings of heavy snow from around 01:00am. 

[Had Worse]

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/thermometer-in-world’s-coldest-village-breaks-as-temperatures-plunge-to-62c/ar-AAuM9Hu?li=AAmiR2Z&ocid=spartanntp

Some places are just greedy keeping all the cold to themselves.

[frosty ground]

25 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

Just to depress all the coastal dwellers... In the last 5 years Athens has had more instances of snow than coastal NW England

I do not see anything surprising or depressing there......

[Deep Snow please]

Is that low going to go far enough south?

[Hocus Pocus]

15 minutes ago, karyo said:

I do not expect global temperatures to drop (like some people think it will) but it should at least increase the frequency of southerly tracking jet and northern blocking so our winters will be better than now. Of course, we will still be fighting with the warmer sea temperatures.

 

The warmer sea temps in the Atlantic are down to the AMO being in its positive phase, this is due to switch around 2020 so hopefully we’ll see a return to seeing the Atlantic in a similar position as it was during the 50-80s.

[frosty ground]

1 hour ago, chicken soup said:

I to have had enough of these letdowns now...time to accept that the climate has changed for the worse....i shall never believe another weather model again.

All those letdowns..... like when you posted this

 

Quote

 

 

 

It's just let down after let down for you 

[frosty ground]

8 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Is that low going to go far enough south?

If you are North of Kendal you should be fine.

south of Kendall and its not going to happen.

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

I do not see anything surprising or depressing there......

Hmmmm its a bit more complicated than that- in the last 30 years Greek winters have progressively got colder (and turkey), this is (in my humble opinion) a consequence of the trend of predominantly +NAO winters which has had a general pattern of a euro high/Icelandic low resulting in the colder arctic air flowing down the eastern flank of the high into SE Europe.

I would suggest while our winters have got milder and wetter since the late 80s the winters in SE Europe have got colder..

I could be wrong here but that would be my reading of things.

[Had Worse]

Expect nothing. Anything is a bonus

 

Edited January 17, 2018 by Had Worse

[karyo]

6 minutes ago, Hocus Pocus said:

The warmer sea temps in the Atlantic are down to the AMO being in its positive phase, this is due to switch around 2020 so hopefully we’ll see a return to seeing the Atlantic in a similar position as it was during the 50-80s.

The AMO switch will certainly help and I am looking forward to it when it happens. But we should still have overall warmer than average SSTs due to climate change. That's not going to stop.

[frosty ground]

This is my 3rd consecutive 17th January with snow cover.

[Hocus Pocus]

4 minutes ago, karyo said:

The AMO switch will certainly help and I am looking forward to it when it happens. But we should still have overall warmer than average SSTs due to climate change. That's not going to stop.

I’m not so sure Karyo as I feel it’s being overestimated, we haven’t warmed a great deal during the last 150 years and we still can’t pin down just how much of that warming is down to CO2.. Anyway this is way off topic and hopefully at the very worst we’ll actually get some colder winters thrown into the mix, hopefully.?

[northwestsnow]

Just now, frosty ground said:

This is my 3rd consecutive 17th January with snow cover.

Ha quirky fact!

TBH my brother in law lives up near you (leywell drive) and i do wonder what it was like in the 60s for example up there-

I cant imagine what it was like in 1979- there must of been 6 foot drifts - at least!!

Would love to see something like that again in my lifetime..

[Carl46Wrexham]

24 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Total snow in 18 hours with some melt.

 

The hell are you waiting for man? Get that snowman built. Then perhaps a spot of tobogganing before lunch.

[pip22]

Woke up to nothing. Gutted.

Outlook looking bleak too especially next week when the blowtorch arrives. The funny thing is it always seems to happen after a failed snow event.

 

Edited January 17, 2018 by pip22

[karyo]

3 minutes ago, Hocus Pocus said:

I’m not so sure Karyo as I feel it’s being overestimated, we haven’t warmed a great deal during the last 150 years and we still can’t pin down just how much of that warming is down to CO2.. Anyway this is way off topic and hopefully at the very worst we’ll actually get some colder winters thrown into the mix, hopefully.?

I hope you are right but the fast decline of Arctic Ice is really lowering our chances of proper cold spells from the north. In the Arctic ice refreeze thread somebody posted a chart of where the ice was back in the 1940s. It is an eye opener and it explains a lot about why our northerlies and northwesterlies are so watered down. Also, the warmer sea temperatures in the Norwegian sea and Svalbard encourage shortwave development there so high pressure fails to establish there in winter. This also affects our easterlies.