North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards

[northwestsnow]

suns out 

[Darren Bown]

11 minutes ago, karyo said:

The updated euro 4 has corrected south tomorrow night's low. We still have a chance.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=42&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Staying as snow in Cumbria and the North Pennines.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Notice the DPs stay negative through to 6pm tomorrow too.

[Alister]

Paddys Pond showers really starting to build now!

 

[karyo]

5 minutes ago, Darren Bown said:

Notice the DPs stay negative through to 6pm tomorrow too.

Having looked the updated Aprege i'd say it has the low in the same latitude as the euro 4 so that's good news. Fingers crossed for another little shift south this afternoon.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpegee_cartes.php?&ech=42&mode=0

[northwestsnow]

Just now, karyo said:

Having looked the updated Aprege i'd say it has the low in the same latitude as the euro 4 so that's good news. Fingers crossed for another little shift south this afternoon.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpegee_cartes.php?&ech=42&mode=0

Thats all we need K, another 30-50 miles south and its game on!

[Mountain Snow]

1 hour ago, Chris.R said:

 I have been waiting for the 6Z to say this.

For all those worrying about shower activity: the LI (a measure of the instability in the air)is on a nosedive from now on which enables the convective available potential energy (CAPE) to be released this afternoon. By 20:00 I have 1080 J/kG of CAPE and an LI of -5! I cannot emphasise enough how rare it is the sea figures so high in winter. If we do not see some substantial showers with lightning activity by 4 PM, then I am a chocolate frog! 

Sounds great, those showers that left Belfast are pepping up again as they pass IOM. 

It's been a frustrating morning, were forecast continuous snow all day but all we've had is a few flakes blowing in the breeze while the Southern Uplands get plastered.

[Had Worse]

Just got back from visiting my Gran (94) in Langley Middleton. 

Going up the M67 and then A57 to Mottram was dancing on ice for real.

Graupel has frozen into pack ice.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Mountain Snow said:

Sounds great, those showers that left Belfast are pepping up again as they pass IOM. 

It's been a frustrating morning, were forecast continuous snow all day but all we've had is a few flakes blowing in the breeze while the Southern Uplands get plastered.

Agreed! A terribly frustrating day so far- 

Don'y understand why the irish sea is so ruddy quiet - maybe signs its coming to life hope its not a false dawn.

[karyo]

Hail again here. I notice the difference compared to earlier showers. There is no rain mixed with it so the upper air temperatures are dropping.

[Chris.R]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Agreed! A terribly frustrating day so far- 

Don'y understand why the irish sea is so ruddy quiet - maybe signs its coming to life hope its not a false dawn.

 Not enough instability (LI)until now.  The energy was there but no trigger. 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Chris.R said:

 Not enough instability (LI)until now.  The energy was there but no trigger. 

You reckon things are going to liven up a bit chris?

[Chris.R]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

You reckon things are going to liven up a bit chris?

 See my post from before. Things should start exploding soon. Expect some extreme convection by this evening. 

[Chris harry]

Hail showers here. Some large hail too. 

[raul_sbd]

3.2c / 0.9c dew and 85% humidity.. temps dropping fast now! All the reds.. snow

[Had Worse]

1 minute ago, Chris harry said:

Hail showers here. Some large hail too. 

Yes, drove through it about 45 mins ago. They were pea size and even marble size.

[Joe Bloggs]

Nobody should be surprised by today’s activity so far (or lack of).

I agree with earlier posts that the best potential was always today late afternoon/evening. We’ll see.  

[Barmada_Casten]

Sorry guys and I hate to be the one who told you all so but the all the hule and talk has once again lead to another MASSIVE let down. If I had believed the forecasts and chats I would have awoken to about 10cms of snow having experienced what would have been 24 hours + of constant snowfall. The reality is here has been no snow, and it's raining with some hail mixed in. The standard outcome of 99% of any major snowfall forecasts. Like I said hate to be the one who told you all but I have been on this forum for over 15 years and have seen it happen so many times. 

[Spah1]

hail shower

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Barmada_Casten said:

Sorry guys and I hate to be the one who told you all so but the all the hule and talk has once again lead to another MASSIVE let down. If I had believed the forecasts and chats I would have awoken to about 10cms of snow having experienced what would have been 24 hours + of constant snowfall. The reality is here has been no snow, and it's raining with some hail mixed in. The standard outcome of 99% of any major snowfall forecasts. Like I said hate to be the one who told you all but I have been on this forum for over 15 years and have seen it happen so many times. 

LOL.

And i thought i could moan

Keep the faith- even if its a bust today you should do very well tomorrow..

[Astral Goat Juice]

Turning increasingly wintry here, and we are only 15 ASL. 

[Had Worse]

4 minutes ago, Barmada_Casten said:

Sorry guys and I hate to be the one who told you all so but the all the hule and talk has once again lead to another MASSIVE let down. If I had believed the forecasts and chats I would have awoken to about 10cms of snow having experienced what would have been 24 hours + of constant snowfall. The reality is here has been no snow, and it's raining with some hail mixed in. The standard outcome of 99% of any major snowfall forecasts. Like I said hate to be the one who told you all but I have been on this forum for over 15 years and have seen it happen so many times. 

[frosty ground]

5 minutes ago, Barmada_Casten said:

Sorry guys and I hate to be the one who told you all so but the all the hule and talk has once again lead to another MASSIVE let down. If I had believed the forecasts and chats I would have awoken to about 10cms of snow having experienced what would have been 24 hours + of constant snowfall. The reality is here has been no snow, and it's raining with some hail mixed in. The standard outcome of 99% of any major snowfall forecasts. Like I said hate to be the one who told you all but I have been on this forum for over 15 years and have seen it happen so many times. 

Same post different wording welcome to world of ignore.

[Thunder Snow]

i fear a let down rain showers all day so far 

[Alister]

Could we possibly be seeing the start of s streamer setting up???!??

 

[Joe Bloggs]

7 minutes ago, Barmada_Casten said:

Sorry guys and I hate to be the one who told you all so but the all the hule and talk has once again lead to another MASSIVE let down. If I had believed the forecasts and chats I would have awoken to about 10cms of snow having experienced what would have been 24 hours + of constant snowfall. The reality is here has been no snow, and it's raining with some hail mixed in. The standard outcome of 99% of any major snowfall forecasts. Like I said hate to be the one who told you all but I have been on this forum for over 15 years and have seen it happen so many times. 

Oh bore off ??