North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards

[itsnowjoke]

1c here feels colder

[Osca31]

Small flakes now falling, was this forecast?

[I Cumbria Marra I]

1 minute ago, Osca31 said:

Small flakes now falling, was this forecast?

Same, just started?

[Osca31]

Just now, I Cumbria Marra I said:

Same, just started?

We're being spoiled, twice in two days!!!!

[cheshire snow]

3 minutes ago, Osca31 said:

Small flakes now falling, was this forecast?

Looks to be way ahead of schedule according to the Radar Already half way across the Irish sea

C.S

[Chris.R]

42 minutes ago, robbo88 said:

Looking on the latest gfs it's quite a few hours ahead of where it should be...

That’s a good thing then, maybe there’ll be enough surface cold left when it arrives.

[cheshire snow]

1 minute ago, Chris.R said:

That’s a good thing then, maybe there’ll be enough surface cold left when it arrives.

Radar returns showing sleet/snow on the west coast of Wales.

C.S

[Mokidugway]

Odd flakes falling from the celestial firmament.

[Chris.R]

This Evening and Tonight:

It will be a dry end to the day across southern parts. However thicker cloud and patchy rain further north will gradually spread southeast as the night goes on, bringing some hill snow too. Minimum temperature -3 °C.

 

 I think that the gfs has always had the front arriving much later than the met have been thinking. 

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Nowt falling now despite the radar

[northwestsnow]

UKMO still looks good for sunay to me?

pressure quite low, 850s -7 ish - lets see if it gets watered down nearer the time..

[Day 10]

Not long in from work so only just glanced through charts etc, but the strat thread really is getting excited. Could we be on the cusp of a major cold spell??? Very very interesting times...

[itsnowjoke]

Still at 1c here

[SP1986]

1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

Not long in from work so only just glanced through charts etc, but the strat thread really is getting excited. Could we be on the cusp of a major cold spell??? Very very interesting times...

The one thing they don't tell you in the Strat thread is an SSW event doesn't necessarily mean 100% it'll be cold here... It could be central Europe that gets the good stuff.. so they should probably qualify that amongst the ramping.

[Day 10]

8 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

The one thing they don't tell you in the Strat thread is an SSW event doesn't necessarily mean 100% it'll be cold here... It could be central Europe that gets the good stuff.. so they should probably qualify that amongst the ramping.

Yes I understand that, however along with factors mentioned before very low sun cycle, la nina easing off, east QBO, favourable MJO, and what looks to be a very good SSW then the odds for once are stacked in our favour. I am quite excited and quietly confident that we could see a cold outbreak to rival 2010. This is certainly not your bog standard setup for these several reasons.

From Mid Feb onward could be very interesting indeed!

Edited February 7, 2018 by Day 10

[Cheshire Freeze]

13 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

The one thing they don't tell you in the Strat thread is an SSW event doesn't necessarily mean 100% it'll be cold here... It could be central Europe that gets the good stuff.. so they should probably qualify that amongst the ramping.

I've pointed that out in MOD thread twice until now.

[Frost HoIIow]

14 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Yes I understand that, however along with factors mentioned before very low sun cycle, la nina easing off, east QBO, favourable MJO, and what looks to be a very good SSW then the odds for once are stacked in our favour. I am quite excited and quietly confident that we could see a cold outbreak to rival 2010. This is certainly not your bog standard setup for these several reasons.

From Mid Feb onward could be very interesting indeed!

Hopefully mate but for it to rival one of the cold spells of 2010 it needs to arrive this month & not get delayed a lot. March can bring decent cold like 2013 but that was something like the coldest March for 50 years, chances of that happening so soon are low. Clocks ticking.

Edited February 7, 2018 by Frost HoIIow

[Day 10]

12 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Hopefully mate but for it to rival one of the cold spells of 2010 it needs to arrive this month & not get delayed a lot. March can bring decent cold like 2013 but that was something like the coldest March for 50 years, chances of that happening so soon are low. Clocks ticking.

The weather doesn't know this though.

At the mo I'm keeping an eye on the later frames of the ECM and also GFS, I wouldn't normally pay too much attention to FI but with the backround signals as they are then they now may start to have some credibility.

Even before FI there could there could be some snow surprises for the Northwest anyway.

Latest ECM = COLD

Edited February 7, 2018 by Day 10

[Spah1]

Managed to get my post ‘super liked’ in the Mod thread before it got removed.

beat that ?

[cheshire snow]

8 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

The weather doesn't know this though.

At the mo I'm keeping an eye on the later frames of the ECM and also GFS, I wouldn't normally pay too much attention to FI but with the backround signals as they are then they now may start to have some credibility.

Even before FI there could there could be some snow surprises for the Northwest anyway.

Latest ECM = COLD

Worth Noting 23 GEFS Members show snow 10 and 12th Feb

C.S 

[Alexis]

47 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Hopefully mate but for it to rival one of the cold spells of 2010 it needs to arrive this month & not get delayed a lot. March can bring decent cold like 2013 but that was something like the coldest March for 50 years, chances of that happening so soon are low. Clocks ticking.

Ah, 1 in 50 years doesn’t mean the chances are higher of a repeat in year 49 than year 2 :-) “1 in a x year event” is a misleading statistical phrase

[pip22]

Front edge snow possible on Saturday morning according to 12z GFS. Sunday and Monday also looking Good. In fact looking quite wintry next week!!   Tuesday is of interest too.

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=53.70;-2.84;8&l=rain-3h&t=20180210/09

Saturday Morning ^^

 

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=53.40;-3.22;6&l=rain-3h&t=20180213/09

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=53.40;-3.22;6&l=rain-3h&t=20180213/15

Tuesday ^^

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 7, 2018 by pip22

[itsnowjoke]

41 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Managed to get my post ‘super liked’ in the Mod thread before it got removed.

beat that ?

Played a blinder there 

[Frost HoIIow]

15 minutes ago, Alexis said:

Ah, 1 in 50 years doesn’t mean the chances are higher of a repeat in year 49 than year 2 :-) “1 in a x year event” is a misleading statistical phrase

It's not misleading at all. Fact is it was bloody cold month and not likely to be repeated in a long while. It could happen this year but given our warming planet it's a lower probability than say 30 years ago.

Edited February 7, 2018 by Frost HoIIow

[Day 10]

3 minutes ago, pip22 said:

Front edge snow possible on Saturday morning according to 12z GFS. Sunday and Monday also looking Good. In fact looking quite wintry next week!!   Tuesday is of interest too.

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=53.70;-2.84;8&l=rain-3h&t=20180210/09

Saturday Morning ^^

 

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=53.40;-3.22;6&l=rain-3h&t=20180213/09

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=53.40;-3.22;6&l=rain-3h&t=20180213/15

Tuesday ^^

 

 

 

 

 

 

Links not working mate