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North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards

Deep Snow please

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severe snowstorm Maestro

severe snowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frosty nights, thunderstorms and the odd gale
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
Posted

So it seems the weather is back to the default winter setting this week, damp/wet at times, breezy at times and average or above average temps. Can anyone offer any hope of snow potential in the extended as I can't see any for at least a week? Talk of a low running through the country in 8/9 days time with wintry potential which has been consistently showing on ECM, albeit with varied tracks. Still there on this morning's ECM for next Tuesday, running though the South on the latest run. All a long way off and subject to much change of course.

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

 Thursday and Friday hold some small interest. Watch this space. 

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, SP1986 said:

The boundary between cold and mild air is insane.. it's currently 10C

Only got up to 7.5°C here in the end, but then you were closer to the inversion being on a hill.

Edited by Chris.R
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Had Worse Maestro

Had Worse

Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
Posted
11 minutes ago, wrightc23 said:

Excitement building in the model output thread for early Feb. Let's hope they're not building up for another fall?

Best to keep feet well on the ground.

Looks like we need extra good synoptics to be in with a shout.

The end of the spell yesterday was a high hills event as has been most of the last 6 days. Yes I saw snow but it was a blink and its gone affair.

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

Thursday still holds some convective  interest although 850s  are not cold enough for anywhere to see falling snow except perhaps @WillinGlossop and Buxton.

The interest for Friday has gone.

Haven’t been on the mod thread for ages so didn’t realise that they had finally stop shouting at each other and decided to actually talk about the weather! 

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Had Worse Maestro

Had Worse

Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
Posted
1 minute ago, Chris.R said:

Thursday still holds some convective  interest although 850s  are not cold enough for anywhere to see falling snow except perhaps @WillinGlossop and Buxton.

The interest for Friday has gone.

Haven’t been on the mod thread for ages so didn’t realise that they had finally stop shouting at each other and decided to actually talk about the weather! 

its gone to the other extreme now with telepathic thoughts and crytic replies. No one wants to overstep the line and be accused of ramping.

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frosty ground Veteran

frosty ground

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
Posted
7 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

its gone to the other extreme now with telepathic thoughts and crytic replies. No one wants to overstep the line and be accused of ramping.

Well the MJO is forecast to move through phases 7&8.
The ECM and GFS which produce the above are showing signs of amplification.
The MJO signal (forecast) is backing up the model output that is not MJO.

 

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Had Worse Maestro

Had Worse

Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
Posted
4 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Well the MJO is forecast to move through phases 7&8.
The ECM and GFS which produce the above are showing signs of amplification.
The MJO signal (forecast) is backing up the model output that is not MJO.

 

What about the GWO?

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Frost HoIIow Accomplished

Frost HoIIow

Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
Posted (edited)

Well another carrot has been dangled in the mod thread with a potential easterly way out in fi lol looks like it has gone Pete tong already. 

Edited by Frost HoIIow
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WillinGlossop Maestro

WillinGlossop

Posted
  • Location: Glossop Derbyshire 300m asl
  • Location: Glossop Derbyshire 300m asl
Posted
1 hour ago, Chris.R said:

Thursday still holds some convective  interest although 850s  are not cold enough for anywhere to see falling snow except perhaps @WillinGlossop and Buxton.

The interest for Friday has gone.

Haven’t been on the mod thread for ages so didn’t realise that they had finally stop shouting at each other and decided to actually talk about the weather! 

I’m off to Spain to see my brother Thursday for a long weekend.... lookslike the mountains in southern Spain might see snow whilst I’m there...

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Weather-history Maestro

Weather-history

Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Well another carrot has been dangled in the mod thread with a potential easterly way out in fi lol looks like it has gone Pete tong already. 

Take a look at the GFS 378 hrs 500hpa mean chart. How often do you see a mean chart like that?

Edited by Weather-history
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Had Worse Maestro

Had Worse

Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
Posted
3 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

I’m off to Spain to see my brother Thursday for a long weekend.... lookslike the mountains in southern Spain might see snow whilst I’m there...

Rub it in why dont you.:D

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severe snowstorm Maestro

severe snowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frosty nights, thunderstorms and the odd gale
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
Posted
44 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Well another carrot has been dangled in the mod thread with a potential easterly way out in fi lol looks like it has gone Pete tong already. 

Whatever happened to that Torpedo that was going to kick start things a couple of years ago......? Are we expecting another one soon?:D

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
11 minutes ago, Dexter said:

Whatever happened to that Torpedo that was going to kick start things a couple of years ago......? Are we expecting another one soon?:D

mis fired just like the SM  easterly! always believe in mild

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Had Worse Maestro

Had Worse

Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
Posted
2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

mis fired just like the SM  easterly! always believe in mild

Carrots on a stick are ok out of water, torpedos dont do so well.

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Frost HoIIow Accomplished

Frost HoIIow

Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

Take a look at the GFS 378 hrs 500hpa mean chart. How often do you see a mean chart like that?

True, these easterlies have to start from somewhere but it's getting it into the reliable that proves a pain in the backside.

Edited by Frost HoIIow
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iand61 Maestro

iand61

Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
Posted
1 hour ago, Mokidugway said:

35.5c here think my snow chances are marginal :rofl:

You’ve probably more chance from that than our very uncold cold spell gave.

 

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pip22 Accomplished

pip22

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
Posted

The best chance for a Easterly is when the models showing it at the short term from nothing maybe about 100hrs out. It very rarely does happen.

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

GFS 12 z has brought back the -7/-8 850s for Friday evening, however pressure looks too high for precipitation. May be a slight chance of wintriness before the pressure rises too much.

As I said before, Thursday is your standard convective westerly with 850s only around -3. The only unusual thing is that the surface winds will be backed off-shore whilst the flow aloft still brings showers in from the west.  

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Miamay Experienced

Miamay

Posted
  • Location: Walton, Liverpool. 38m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy weather
  • Location: Walton, Liverpool. 38m asl.
Posted

Another grey damp day !!

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Had Worse Maestro

Had Worse

Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
Posted

Welcome to mild mush, hopefully the show will end in 48 hours.

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SP1986 Accomplished

SP1986

Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
Posted

Looks like persisting for a bit longer than 48 hours

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pip22 Accomplished

pip22

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
Posted

Yep the boring southern blocking continues. :bad:

 

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