North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards

[northwestsnow]

its been mainly snow here from mid afternoon, mixed with hail at times - my altitude has actually ensured i have a full covering.

The trough dropping down will be interesting, hopefully a few cm before dawn..

[northwestsnow]

I would guess the moorside crew probably have around 3cm of cover..

[inghams85]

The latest euro4 4 is massive push north and follows the GFS18z I'm afraid. A trend develdeveloping

[I Cumbria Marra I]

not organised or heavy enough

[Had Worse]

Full cover here

[chicken soup]

1 minute ago, inghams85 said:

The latest euro4 4 is massive push north and follows the GFS18z I'm afraid. A trend develdeveloping

Fully expected that...this region is genuinely cursed.

[cheese]

5 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

The latest euro4 4 is massive push north and follows the GFS18z I'm afraid. A trend develdeveloping

One run does not a trend make.. I really don't know why people get so dramatic over one run, or focus on one model while ignoring the others. 

Edited January 17, 2018 by cheese

[chicken soup]

Just now, cheese said:

One run does not a trend make.. I really don't know why people get so dramatic over one run, or focus on one model while ignoring the others. 

2 runs,,gfs 18z is also north....it aint gonna happen

[cheese]

3 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

2 runs,,gfs 18z is also north....it aint gonna happen

And..? Other models exist as well, believe it or not. Nothing special about the GFS. Other high-res models updated tonight and showed the low further south, so to say it isn't going to happen because of two models alone is very silly indeed.

Edited January 17, 2018 by cheese

[I Cumbria Marra I]

turning to snow now, still too light though

[Hocus Pocus]

Reports of 2cm of lying snow around parts of Leeds which begs the question just what wind direction actually brings us snow. 

[chicken soup]

4 minutes ago, cheese said:

And..? Other models exist as well, believe it or not. Nothing special about the GFS. Other high-res models updated tonight and showed the low further south, so to say it isn't going to happen because of two models alone is very silly indeed.

Your entitled to your opinion but years of constant letdowns as well as the new trend north says to me this wont happen...I would love to be wrong though.

Edited January 17, 2018 by chicken soup

[northwestsnow]

think there might be a streamer setting up in the irish sea..

[Hocus Pocus]

25 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

And sadly, unless sea ice in the Arctic recovers and global warming lessens then we probably will never get a cold set up which will deliver uppers of -15 or below ever again really as the PV is far too weak and fragmented these days. Although that said, i think February in the 2011/12 season had a massively deep cold pool over the continent which nearly headed our way but sadly did'nt. Unfortunately, Western Russia these days during the winter months tend to be dominated by high pressure rather than a chunk of PV dropping there so whilst that remains to be the case, a beast from the east will not happen.

Absolute rubbish really regardless of ones view on whether man can influence climate by that much. We endured warming durning the Middle Ages and during Roman Times, so saying that our climate is altered permanently is poppycock really. Climate is never Linear.

Sorry for the rant, its been a long day.

[Geordiesnow]

2 minutes ago, Hocus Pocus said:

Absolute rubbish really regardless of ones view on whether man can influence climate by that much. We endured warming durning the Middle Ages and during Roman Times, so saying that our climate is altered permanently is poppycock really. Climate is never Linear.

Sorry for the rant, its been a long day.

Lets lay the bare facts HP, the PV is alot weaker these days, the sea ice is at record lows and because of all this, you see its very hard even for Scandinavia to experience proper deep cold at times nevermind the UK, its why these transient events are becoming more common.

November saw a high number of Northerlies and all of them were transient events in terms of snowfall because the cold uppers were moderated because of the lack of PV in the Arctic during the Autumn months.

Unless sea ice cover recovers during the Autumn months and the PV properly develops over the Arctic as a result then its going to be a struggle I fear to maintain significant cold, if predictions of an ice free Arctic come true, which I think it will, then its going to be harder than it is now because the PV will be even slower to form in the Autumn months and the only PV that will develop will be a natural PV that forms over the Canadian and Russian landmasses.

There is no coincidence why Svalbard's winter climate has altered rapidly in the last 10-15 years either!

[Yorkshirepudding]

1 hour ago, JeffC said:

No disrespect but why is 2-4" of snow worthy of an Amber warning?

Sorry maybe I've got a skewed view but why is that such a biggy? Hells bells that was a shower in 1947 or 1963!! 

Bunch of bloody wooses whoever decides this!

Yes they give Amber warnings for 5-10cms these days. 

[I Cumbria Marra I]

proper fluffy snow, cant believe my eyes!!!!!!!!!!!!

[I Cumbria Marra I]

heavy too woooohooooo baby, snow day and sledging tomoz

[CloudyBay]

Just now, I Cumbria Marra I said:

heavy too woooohooooo baby, snow day and sledging tomoz

Shouldn't you update your signature measurements?!?

 

[I Cumbria Marra I]

just turned back to sleet

[Yorkshirepudding]

23 minutes ago, Hocus Pocus said:

Absolute rubbish really regardless of ones view on whether man can influence climate by that much. We endured warming durning the Middle Ages and during Roman Times, so saying that our climate is altered permanently is poppycock really. Climate is never Linear.

Sorry for the rant, its been a long day.

HP I couldn't agree more the earth goes through cycles. I think it's all about the tilt of the earth but now we are going into something that's a much bigger time frame wise in the evolution of the world and its atmosphere. For the winters to happen again like the 40s & 60s can and will happen if all conditions are right we are still breaking records set from years ago since records began for coldest nights & highest Snowfall all over the world. And we will continue to do so. It's the fact we are a small island placed where we are that we need all things to come into play perfectly to create the perfect winter. 

[SP1986]

Oh my god that wind is scary..

[Chris.R]

12 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

Oh my god that wind is scary..

 Just tryed to sleep...couldn’t...savage gusts...wasn’t expecting this. 

Edited January 17, 2018 by Chris.R

[SparkleS]

These gusts are really quite scary!

[loubie_4]

8 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 Just tryed to sleep...couldn’t...savage gusts...wasn’t expecting this. 

Same here Chris