Jump to content

Model output discussion - mid-winter


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in here & please keep it friendly!

For more general chat and banter, moans and ramps, please head to the banter thread.
For general weather chat, please go to the regional threads.

Notice a problem with a post? Please hit the report button.
Thank you!

View the latest forecast models in the Netweather DataCentre

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

In the name of sanity can people please not quote the whole of bb6263s excellent posts 

Another morning of runs and another run of comments. The ECM is good oh no its not  its crap, its cold oh no its not its mild. It will bring rain no it will bring snow. The GFS is good no its poor and

always worth dusting off that well known NetWeather Classic regarding winter model watching...."Get the cold in first, and the snow will follow...the finer detail will be sorted in the days to come"..

Posted Images

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018011412_276.ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018011412_300.ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018011412_360.

Looks like a little bit of Bartlett ridging North just enough to give a touch of frost I'm afraid - absolute tat.

No Atlantic blocking but doesn't one of those show an Easterly (Scandi block) by 29th and another a UK high?

Not familiar with those charts or up on my Icelandic

Edited by Mucka
Link to post
Share on other sites

Just seen the latest forcast and all they're saying is watch this space for Tuesday - Thursday. Be prepared for a lot of slight changes on the Models. Yesterday the weather system on Wednesday/Thursday went through the south now it's more towards Scotland. It wouldn't surprise me if it ended up going through the middle. A lot can change in 24hours. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

It’s all about 168-192 tomorrow...??

Have you been on the sherry again! :D

As backtracks go the last 36 hours would give a trigger shortwave Scandi high trauma a run for its money.

Once again the UK feeding off scraps at the buffet table.

It really does suck to be a coldie in the UK.  

 

  • Like 2
  • Haha 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

To me they all show Westerlies.

Okay I will take your word for it as I am not sure how to interpret them  :D

Would of thought that colder cluster on the graph though can't be Westerly based as they have London sub zero at night and 2 or 3C during the day.

 

Edited by Mucka
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Have you been on the sherry again! :D

As backtracks go the last 36 hours would give a trigger shortwave Scandi high trauma a run for its money.

Once again the UK feeding off scraps at the buffet table.

It really does suck to be a coldie in the Southern England.

 

Edited your post for more accuracy..:rofl:

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Just hang fire to tomorrow eve ....

Steve, you were predicting a very cold flow over the south this weekend (I was dubious with the warm continent). You were quite certain of a col and temperatures close to zero by day. As you know, it’s been far from that cold.....

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Okay I will take your word for it as I am not sure how to interpret them  :D

Would of thought that colder cluster on the graph though can't be Westerly based as they have London sub zero at night and 2 or 3C during the day.

 

I thought that one with the uk high would still give frosts under clear skies or the slack one that's not far off a continental drift without actually being one but I stand corrected because I hate those charts and maybe its me who cant read them!

  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, CK1981 said:

Steve, you were predicting a very cold flow over the south this weekend (I was dubious with the warm continent). You were quite certain of a col and temperatures close to zero by day. As you know, it’s been far from that cold.....

Yep - not as cold as predicted — but the 500Mb pattern was pretty good match for Europe-

The 2 late Minor models continue to push back south of the storm

E4F779E2-A58F-4942-9791-89CB1F0C9BA6.thumb.png.4635e263ed40fab03a0eb7bf6d2e0f99.pngAD444390-A2AD-4777-AE34-C3283AE74FD6.thumb.png.c6ff4f92044c57ed26f7188fffdc7350.png

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Blizzardof82 said:

Ian F has just tweeted that Thursday storm could be 250 miles further North or South than currently shown, still lots of uncertainty from METO.

Yes... uncertainty seen in the ensembles. That rouge run... t850Western~Isles.png

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yep - not as cold as predicted — but the 500Mb pattern was pretty good match for Europe-

The 2 late Minor models continue to push back south of the storm

E4F779E2-A58F-4942-9791-89CB1F0C9BA6.thumb.png.4635e263ed40fab03a0eb7bf6d2e0f99.pngAD444390-A2AD-4777-AE34-C3283AE74FD6.thumb.png.c6ff4f92044c57ed26f7188fffdc7350.png

Let’s see how it pans out...

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Mucka said:

I know, I know, but to just cheer folk up.

P20 - trend setter.

gensnh-20-1-360.png

or insane outlier, you decide:crazy:

There's a few stonkers in there actually - more than I thought looking at the mean.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

Looking great for my area (West-Central Scotland) for snow in the next 72-96 hours! Models are giving some great snow potential from that midweek storm (Fionn soon maybe?), along with all those bloody showers from tomorrow evening onwards! 

Shame that this week's potential is being dampened by the IMBYness in here, just because it's not what a lot of us want. I was bloody fuming when those sliders were dumping FEET of snow in the Midlands, now it's our turn! :D

 

Well said! 

As you said lots of potential for snow to fall here across Scotland over the coming week. If the models are correct then some areas could see some serious amounts of snow.

Thundersnow? Yes please! :yahoo:

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

There's a few stonkers in there actually - more than I thought looking at the mean.

and the good thing about it is, any one of those "stonkers" is a feasible outcome. :good:

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...