Model output discussion - mid-winter

[N/A]

The central slice of Wales looks very wet possibly snowy on the hills & mountains. Elsewhere it certainly doesn't look like a washout next week, far from it with much of the south & west coast getting under an inch of rain up to next Thursday. BBC forecast showing this trend for Tenby for example. Same for the rest of the U.K. wettest in the NW drier elsewhere especially in the east. 

 

 

Edited January 14, 2018 by Dafydd Tomos

[Geordiesnow]

Not surprised there is not more comments on this potentially deep low pressure system because of the sheer fact its not what people are looking for but the chances we will have another named storm does look more and more certain now and I say bring it on, better than this blocked dreary SE'ly malarkey. Really does feel like its the calm before the storm as the weather will get a lot more lively and interesting next week although reading this thread, you would think a Bartlett high was heading this way.

As it happens, the Azores high heading eastwards instead of Northwards could well be the main cause why this once shallow low which might of bought some snowfall on its northern flank could actually turn out to be a disruptive named storm as warm air from the Azores high interacts with the polar maritime air. If the models do backtrack and show more amplificaion with the Azores high then the low could become more shallow again increasing the chances of more prolonged snow again so nothing can be fully ruled out.

[bluearmy]

I see the pig is back again and this time with a full revlon contract! Actually, it’s not quite that bad and plenty of places up north (especially with elevation ) will be posting their snow photos at various times this week. Ecm (inc eps) retain the ridge following though that looks a bit meh compared to the direction of travel Friday evening. Ec op dropping that mid Atlantic trough late on is eps supported though how far west this occurs is open to debate. The spreads here support the op so I’m not seeing anything of interest yet for coldies - this evolution will drive warmer air back across Europe so if we do progress those lower heights to our south, we get another tepid easterly flow!  Not inclined to think that there is an elephant in the room is as some are. the strong zonal strat flow subsiding very soon and likely to stay that way next couple weeks so the trop can do what it wants to without any influence. No sign that any reversal is coming which could change things further down. The trop pv looks pretty done for on the day 10 ec op this morning though that doesn’t necessarily mean anything for our little part of the NH.

Now where is that tax return ..............

[Froze were the Days]

28 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

I absolutely agree with you.

Very messy indeed.

But a fair few will see alot of wintry and stormy weather.

So enjoy what's ahead this week and hope that things improve over the next few days.

Hard to imagine that winter of 1962/63 was a la Nina winter.

Typical that this Nina is pain in the ass.

Still note that Azores high still goes nowhere...and as long as it stays there you can forget about cold weather.

[offerman]

45 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

Oh dear it's gone pear shaped or its Been severely watered down so much so "FISH SHAPED" might be more appropriate. typical when you think you might get a lucky break that it all goes that way. It's pathetic really. GFS is only really showing what is going on in reality which sadly amounts to features not going the way  coldies would like yet again 

 Totally agree with you the problem as I see is the Azores hi has come up from the south-west forcing everything away . 

  If that had moved Westwood or even further south than it was then all would be brilliant and we would be in for snow fest countrywide from the north and north-east . 

 But is the resource high that causes all of our mild winter issues and disappointing charts .

 As I mentioned before though people are their own worst enemy because they are looking out 5 7 10 days ahead  which is just pointless .

 

 If people look within the 3 to 4 day timeframe then they will be a lot less disappointed and on some occasions even these charts can change but lot less frequency to the downside as opposed to 5 710 day time periods 

[mulzy]

Some kind of Euro heights is probably the form horse in the extended period (similar to what is shown in the 6z GFS) - so unlikely to stay unsettled for long.

No sign of deep cold though...

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, snowbunting said:

Two things from the model tuns this morning...

1. The low expected around this thursday is most likely going to take a more Nly track... 

2. After 150hrs we have loads of ensemble runs supporting the sustained cold conditions. 

And that statement may be even more relevant than it at first appears, SB: we can't expect the operationals to be always on the colder/more-amplified end of their respective ensemble means (as I think they have been, of late?)...Maybe, just now they happen to be at the warmer/less-amplified end?

In no was am I advocating that we 'bin' the current outputs, just because we don't happen to like them, just that all may not quite be lost. Yet!

The weather has to do what the weather has to do?

[N/A]

5 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Not surprised there is not more comments on this potentially deep low pressure system because of the sheer fact its not what people are looking for but the chances we will have another named storm does look more and more certain now and I say bring it on, better than this blocked dreary SE'ly malarkey. Really does feel like its the calm before the storm as the weather will get a lot more lively and interesting next week although reading this thread, you would think a Bartlett high was heading this way.

As it happens, the Azores high heading eastwards instead of Northwards could well be the main cause why this once shallow low which might of bought some snowfall on its northern flank could actually turn out to be a disruptive named storm as warm air from the Azores high interacts with the polar maritime air. If the models do backtrack and show more amplificaion with the Azores high then the low could become more shallow again increasing the chances of more prolonged snow again so nothing can be fully ruled out.

Well hopefully the worst will avoid the Bristol Channel coast this time as we'll be back in a period of high Spring tides, indeed some areas here are still repairing sea defences after the storms 10 days or so ago with 3 consecutive days of severe gales in South Wales & SW England not to mention the damaged harbour wall in Portreath, Cornwall.  

[ICE COLD]

Oh dear oh dear this keeps happening year on year out . Massive changes overnight absolutely unbelievable. I have been reading this forum since the start of 13/14 winter and I have never seen a decent cold snowy spell come to friction for the uk as a hole . So that's 13/14 , 14/15,15/16,16/17 and now looking like 17/18 winter . We just get no luck if it can go wrong it really goes wrong . Look at this massive change in just 24 hours GFS 6z today 

[offerman]

23 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Oh dear. What has gone wrong this time I wonder. This is happening every year now. Getting boring now. 

Totally agree. Weather is bonkers more now than ever .  No matter how many charts are supplied from different models around the globe our weather is just so unpredictable during winter especially 

 Thunderstorms and snow do seem to be extremely problematic for forecasting 

[offerman]

6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Oh dear oh dear this keeps happening year on year out . Massive changes overnight absolutely unbelievable. I have been reading this forum since the start of 13/14 winter and I have never seen a decent cold snowy spell come to friction for the uk as a hole . So that's 13/14 , 14/15,15/16,16/17 and now looking like 17/18 winter . We just get no luck if it can go wrong it really goes wrong . Look at this massive change in just 24 hours GFS 6z today 

 And as displayed in your graphic it’s that massive area of high-pressure to our south-west that just guides everything across rather than allowed things down from the north 

 

 There are 6 to 7 extremely strong magnetic areas beneath the Earth‘s surface dotted around the world and unfortunately that Azores high  smack bang on top of one of them and it strengthens and increases the dominance of the high-pressure .  What used to be a semi permanent feature has over the years turned out to be a more permanent feature and unless that starts moving away again they’re going to be far less chances for cold and snow as everything seems to be dictated by that  Azores high imho

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

16 minutes ago, Dafydd Tomos said:

The central slice of Wales looks very wet possibly snowy on the hills & mountains. Elsewhere it certainly doesn't look like a washout next week, far from it with much of the south & west coast getting under an inch of rain up to next Thursday. BBC forecast showing this trend for Tenby for example. Same for the rest of the U.K. wettest in the NW drier elsewhere especially in the east. 

 

 

I said time and time again to myself do not get excited over a heavily modified polar maritime airmass and thank goodness I listened lol! on the plus side though next week is looking average on the thermometer but will feel colder in the wind and there is also a recurring theme from MO that after a showery start we can expect a fair bit of dry, sunny weather especially from midweek. So I agree with you, not a washout by any means 

[Dennis]

track back?  - its sure there will be much snow possible on the northside of the low

[Banbury]

Just to add the smallest glimmer of hope the control is crazy in FI

[blizzard81]

22 minutes ago, offerman said:

Totally agree. Weather is bonkers more now than ever .  No matter how many charts are supplied from different models around the globe our weather is just so unpredictable during winter especially 

 Thunderstorms and snow do seem to be extremely problematic for forecasting 

As long as we have the omni present higher heights over Iberia and southern France and the ever present pv lobe over north east Canada, our winters will be virtually snowless for the majority. This has been the theme of the last 7 years unfortunately. 

[blizzard81]

Gfs ensembles trending milder in the medium to long term. We have to be realistic here and not expect any reversal in our fortunes. 

[offerman]

8 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

As long as we have the omni present higher heights over Iberia and southern France and the ever present pv lobe over north east Canada, our winters will be virtually snowless for the majority. This has been the theme of the last 7 years unfortunately. 

 Couldn’t agree more with you there pleasured excellent post so true and unfortunately whilst myself and many others don’t like to hear that that is exactly the truth of the matter and you are spot on with that post the charts are so stagnant the high pressures are so resilient to our south and south-west unless these change it’s not going to help our cause 

[mulzy]

12 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

As long as we have the omni present higher heights over Iberia and southern France and the ever present pv lobe over north east Canada, our winters will be virtually snowless for the majority. This has been the theme of the last 7 years unfortunately. 

Yes, I was ridiculed by saying the Azores High is the winter killer.  Let’s face it, it is and always has been.  There is evidence that AGW has led to a slight northward shift as well as intensification of the AZH. 

Edited January 14, 2018 by mulzy

[Ian Francis]

38 minutes ago, offerman said:

 

 

 There are 6 to 7 extremely strong magnetic areas beneath the Earth‘s surface dotted around the world and unfortunately that Azores high  smack bang on top of one of them and it strengthens and increases the dominance of the high-pressure .  

what is the scientific evidence for this statement?

 

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Ian Francis said:

what is the scientific evidence for this statement?

 

I will leave offerman to answer your question but evidence aside, it sounds as feasible as anything else discussed on this forum. 

[doctor32]

1 hour ago, Thunderywintrysnow said:

Is this far enough North for yea doc.

haha...Just a tad to far north now, although the prospect of some stormy weather on that run will do... (not to stormy though!) don't want my fence blowing down 

Recent model runs all pointing in the wrong direction now for any long lasting cold for the uk, which is a shame. 

[ghoneym]

Screenshots of a weather update service we use at work. Might be useful for close range detail. I think from what I read they draw their own charts based from data from ECM / GFS / HIRLAM. We get updates every 4 hours or so, I can update when I can on here or maybe on the short range thread?

[terrier]

Well think it’s a case of back to the drawing board again. Looks like the gfs ensembles are trending milder again longer term. 

[Chesil View]

Without wishing to offend in anyway there are an awful lot of ridiculous winter's over type post in here this morning. Anyone thinking any model has got anything on the nail beyond 120/144 at the moment is living in FI themselves. 

[markw2680]

4 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Without wishing to offend in anyway there are an awful lot of ridiculous winter's over type post in here this morning. Anyone thinking any model has got anything on the nail beyond 120/144 at the moment is living in FI themselves. 

Couldn’t have put it better myself tbh, expect more changes in the next couple of days, it’s not nailed yet by a long chalk