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Model output discussion - mid-winter

Paul

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Gorgeous output this morning for coldies, becoming much colder next week with air originating from Greenland / Northern Canada bringing frequent increasingly wintry showers with hail and thunder, sleet and snow, probably a lot of snow for some, especially higher up and frosty / icy nights and early morning's..my kind of weather!!:cold::D 

Edited by Frosty.

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17 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

It wasn’t a slider that gave all the snow. There were showers feeding in from the North West, as there will be next week. Both December’s spell and next week will have seen flow from the NW, whether that flow is initially sourced from the Atlantic or Arctic, and next week's doesn't look anywhere near as potent.  NNW or WNW - They are both from a NW'ly direction. It is nonsense that next week will see the most potent NW'ly in years.

MattStoke I would not worry as Stoke is in a fantastic place here - bit of high ground in NW midlands.

The reason for the potency is not just uppers it is the thicknesses, source of air and cold through the other layers to 500mb. Have you seen some of the dewpoints projected! *currently modelled* Circa -2c max in the day down to Wiltshire over about 4 or 5 days!

850s are slightly higher than the Dec snow showers spell but this time all others factors seem to favour snow to counter the perhaps not so spectacular 850s.

 

 

Edited by Paceyboy

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As far as sustaining a cold spell post day 10 is concerned, how does the next system in the Atlantic interact with the upstream ridge and downstream trough.  To me, that’s the big question as it offers countrywide snow event potential and, if we can get an upper ridge or wedge to stick around Iceland .............

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1 minute ago, Paceyboy said:

MattStoke I would not worry as Stoke is in a fantastic place here - bit of high ground in NW midlands.

The reason for the potency is not just uppers it is the thicknesses, source of air and cold through the other layers to 500mb. Have you seen some of the dewpoints projected! *currently modelled* Circa -2c max in the day down to Wiltshire over about 4 or 5 days!

 

 

Yes and that is the reason why this event will be different to December's.  I didn' get much at all in the way of settling snow in December (an inch on the 29th) just the other side of the Pennines here in Yorkshire but I would be very surprised if I end up with nothing by the end of next week given the strength and instability of the flow looking at this morning's model output.

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52 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Morning all, GFS ends with winter dream charts which looks a reasonable outcome to me. However, in the medium term there seems a variance to the flow profile at 144t between the UK/ECM run and the GFS. The chart below shows a more westerly flow at that stage . ThIs 500mb pressure /temp profile chart from UKMO at 144t highlights a tightening pressure and upper air temperature gradient to the southwest and what looks like a wave formation to develop. So not that straight forward to cold into Southern Britain as the south /SW  could yet be in line for some very stormy weather by the end of next week. Longer term looks cold for all with snow in favoured locations as Polar Continent air mixes in with the unstable Pm flow. Looks very interesting weather next week that should keep many cold fans interested in developments. Will get back this afternoon with a report from our Portal weather Service providers, specifics regarding UK next week.

C

U144-21UK.gif

Oh, for snow dreamers. This is what I woke up to this morning. Hope you get some soon !

26233762_1779930082019591_2443199273175220856_o.jpg

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6 minutes ago, Paceyboy said:

MattStoke I would not worry as Stoke is in a fantastic place here - bit of high ground in NW midlands.

The reason for the potency is not just uppers it is the thicknesses, source of air and cold through the other layers to 500mb. Have you seen some of the dewpoints projected! *currently modelled* Circa -2c max in the day down to Wiltshire over about 4 or 5 days!

850s are slightly higher than the Dec snow showers spell but this time all others factors seem to favour snow to counter the perhaps not so spectacular 850s.

 

 

Oh I'm hopeful of seeing snow here and I'm sure many others will too. It looks interesting, and a lot more so than this week. Just can't see how it's going to be the most potent NW'ly in many years, that's all.

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Yes its all good stuff indeed,   Hopefully no downgrades over the next few days. 

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so just looked outside - already flippin white here - major frosty night - prelude of scenes to come with deep snow via the models I think

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4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Oh I'm hopeful of seeing snow here and I'm sure many others will too. It looks interesting, and a lot more so than this week. Just can't see how it's going to be the most potent NW'ly in many years, that's all.

Maybe just wait until next week to see? You have made your point a fair few times now mate!

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Definite upgrade on the eps even in the extended range.  Lower heights to our SE and SW and higher than normal heights to our north.  The clusters will make for interesting viewing.

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8 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Oh I'm hopeful of seeing snow here and I'm sure many others will too. It looks interesting, and a lot more so than this week. Just can't see how it's going to be the most potent NW'ly in many years, that's all.

It depends how you define potent? Like explained there are a lot more things are our side this time, the only things less so are the uppers. Dew points and other parameters are lower. Not just that but there's so much more energy in the atmosphere.  Exciting times for us in Staffordshire/Cheshire 

Edited by captaincroc

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8 minutes ago, i luv snow said:

Maybe just wait until next week to see? You have made your point a fair few times now mate!

Merely responding to those quoting me but  won't bother anymore. I guess people will always dislike anyone with an alternatibe view to the talking up of cold weather, no matter how respectful they try and put their points across.

Edited by MattStoke

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2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Merely responding to those quoting me but  won't bother anymore. I guess people will always dislike anyone not buying into the hype, no matter how respectful they try and put their points across.

it's not about "buying into the hype" Matt - it's about seeing the model predictions and weather set up, many of us from Monday onwards are gonna get some very wintry weather/models/beeb/meto all ramping it up weather you like it or not, meto will no doubt start with warnings shortly, can't see how they won't

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5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Merely responding to those quoting me but  won't bother anymore. I guess people will always dislike anyone not buying into the hype, no matter how respectful they try and put their points across.

you have more chance of seeing something wintry than we do over this side of the country, just enjoy the weather ride mate and who knows, you might just be pleasently surprised next week, i for one am just enjoying the chase for cold and snow and not the slightest bit jealous if we miss out and the west nabs it all, haha.

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17 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Definite upgrade on the eps even in the extended range.  Lower heights to our SE and SW and higher than normal heights to our north.  The clusters will make for interesting viewing.

‘One swallow doth not a winter make’ - however, we are looking for some direction from the end modelling post day 10 

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20 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Definite upgrade on the eps even in the extended range.  Lower heights to our SE and SW and higher than normal heights to our north.  The clusters will make for interesting viewing.

‘One swallow doth not a winter make’ - however, we are looking for some direction from the end modelling post day 10 

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ECM ensemble mean showing what the GEFS were showing 24 hours or so back with the little extension of the troughing back into the Atlantic

EDH101-240.GIF?12-12

The past couple of GEFS suites have done away with this and just left the European trough anomaly.

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35 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Its still a long way off yet in what will be probably be a fast moving scenario. So the Geopotential upper flow charts at 144t from the UKMO do show some less cold air in the south at that stage, so probably rain down there rather than snow. However, all will be in the colder air mass by end of next week and the snow risk will be greater , even for the south. The British Isles remains on the colder side of the Polar Front. Anyway to lift your snow dreams have attached the picture to wake up to this morning in the village.

C

26233762_1779930082019591_2443199273175220856_o.jpg

If there’s anything less than that photo here on the south coast I will be gutted.

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Jan 2015 saw similarities to the The runs this morning. After the nw we progressed quickly to a n then heights started to build to the ne. All this was knocked on the head shortly thereafter the the Azores high building to the south. This was the coldest spell of the winter with mean temps around 2c for central areas. Is a similar scenario likely next week but a slower transition?

835824EB-9C99-4394-81E8-433DAAF65AA5.jpeg

A97E7CB3-D905-4355-A7FA-90604C68DD5E.jpeg

8A71D49B-B918-41F3-96D1-C43FD2058133.jpeg

C2AD46BD-18E3-47AC-A821-B5C59A81B231.jpeg

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No major changes overnight but uncertainty over the limpet trough.

The ECM becomes more bloated with that , the GFS goes the other way although it was biting finger nails time as to whether energy upstream would phase with that.

After the initial PM flow the coldest air is to the ne and its whether that feeds sw or whether that stalls further north.

The outputs agree on the Russian high locking in the Euro trough. The Euros have a similar upstream pattern at T144hrs with a slower progression east of low pressure and they do have a bit more margin for error in terms of any phasing drama with the limpet trough as they build that lobe of high pressure.

Essentially we want the Euros upstream with a flatter trough downstream to produce the best outcome.

The ECM ensembles do look a bit better longer term a few more colder solutions appearing than last night.

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There's talking about the wintry prospects with a level head and then there's going OTT with claims of it being the most potent in years. It is the latter I disagree with. Shame people don't understand the difference.

Better stick to the regional forum instead from now on. Clearly trying to be realistic, with a slightly different opinion and having the nerve to respond to those addressing me is upsetting some people.

Apologies to the mods. Will show myself out.

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How’s the precipitation looking as I can’t see anything significant to cause major issues with snow ?

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Blatant cherry picking from the GEFS, but we could be inline for such charts during late January / early February...

GFSP20EU00_384_1.png

Edited by mulzy

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As has been shown by the models massive lower heights going into southeast of Europe allowing for even greater chance of northern blocking.

Although not showing the northeasterly yet there's signs a northerly could be on the cards,and from there northeasterly is possible under the right conditions.

As we have seen so far this winter the slider lows always do give us a chance of allowing colder air across the UK whether that be cold northwesterly northerly or northeasterly.

Keep an eye out for Greenland area we see in latter runs a relaxation of the polar vortex, although nothing substantially blocked still half open door across the pole, For northern blocking and most importantly a shift in vortex segment.

Each run is now presenting a shift of polar air into the north Atlantic and pretty potent even in the south at times,

but northern areas including the Midlands and the west country could have plenty of opportunities for wintry wonderland.

In my opinion it's been a longtime coming but as I suggested yesterday this winter has been ok already.

I've seen some snowflakes here in Portsmouth so for me as a 43 year old southerner reminds me of my youth and the 1980s.

So mixing wise good old fashioned weather watching mix with teleconnections and collective minds there's a good chance that this winter will go down as more seasonal 17/18 winter.

And to be fair the models are progressing well in the right direction.

The ECM final frames I'm happy to discount and bin.

Lots at work in the atmosphere so don't be surprised to see things quickly progressing towards an even more chiller outlook.

Happy model watching people and thanks for all your contributions in the forum.

 

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