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Paul

Model output discussion - mid-winter

Paul

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Message added by Paul

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We'll eyes down for the 12z.

Will they upgrade the cold shot or simply downgrade with time.

Very interesting model watching for certain and what's moddeld to follow......very intriguing.

 

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that's a clever old dog working out the models lol - get him on x factor lol - gfs 12z going the same way early in it's run - early output yet though - let's see how much of a wintry week plus it's willing to give us this time

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11 minutes ago, snowice said:

You can't please some:nonono:The models are showing what your saying is more than a possibility! If it's not in certain areas or  not coming from the east they just rubbish the output!it could rain?Then it could snow as you have shown a fine example above.:)

Yes but how many people live at 1000m in the uk (that's 3300ft)? - a big fat zero I would suggest, so he's not comparing like for like.

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I dunno whats going on but gfs seems to increase heights over iberia each and every run!!and just delays that push of cold air instead moving it forward!!so frustrating!

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People on Snow watch   slightly different this run  looks like its a rain  to snow event as early as  108hrs. 

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slighty later on this run - maybe 2-3 hours difference and then this - very very windy too, so blizzards with the snow - bbc now ramping the change to cold come Monday

gfs-2-108.png?12

gfs-2-114.png?12

gfs-2-120.png?12

could be a very wintry night come Monday night and Tuesday will look a completely different day - windy freezing and snowy

Edited by andymusic

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9 minutes ago, shaky said:

I dunno whats going on but gfs seems to increase heights over iberia each and every run!!and just delays that push of cold air instead moving it forward!!so frustrating!

I do see your point but ironically this looks a better run with more -6 and the cold a tiny bit further south.

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I do see your point but ironically this looks a better run with more -6 and the cold a tiny bit further south.

Correct feb :)

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I do see your point but ironically this looks a better run with more -6 and the cold a tiny bit further south.

Despite the higher pressure over Iberia, the core of the AH is further west which may allow for a better plunge from the northwest.

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22 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes but how many people live at 1000m in the uk (that's 3300ft)? - a big fat zero I would suggest, so he's not comparing like for like.

I agree Feb,I don't know anyone who lives at that height however it is an example of one chart/net result next to (if it verifies) a far more potent chart and with higher wind speeds,temperatures will have less time to be modified.Of course the air back in November was probably less cold at source than same now,so all in all,logically...:cold:

 

Edited by MildCarlilse

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Whatever happens Tuesday looks particularly bitter with a strong to gale force NW winds.

gfs-0-120.png?12   gfs-1-120.png?12

Plenty of showers to go with this with a deep unstable flow, I wouldn't rule out snow fall just about anywhere though away from western areas with a little elevation I wouldn't be getting out the sledge just yet. However a set up like this should be conductive for developing more organised bands of precipitation which could give modest accumulations of snow. The GFS may do just this for Tuesday night with a secondary feature zipiping ENE towards the UK.

I guess the main contention here is summed up by the differences between the GFS and UKMO, both pretty much the same in terms of the surface pattern, but the UKMO has 850s around 2C less cold than the GFS which would be pretty muh the difference between snow and rain potentially in this set up.

Edited by Captain Shortwave

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and more for most of the uk

gfs-2-126.png?12

looks an absolutely cracking run this

gfs-2-132.png?12

Edited by andymusic

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-8c 850 coming into Scotland on this run :cold:

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gfs-2-120.png?12gfs-0-126.png?12

Looks like we  are getting a runner on this.... A wave developing on the southern flank.

Edited by frosty ground

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2 minutes ago, Stozzy said:

-8c 850 coming into Scotland on this run :cold:

-8c 850's coming south of the m4 on this run:D

IMG_0342.PNG

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UW144-21.GIF?11-17

Still looking cold on the UK, but a more stable flow (no disturbances) 

Plenty to look out for nearer the time.

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1 minute ago, ShortWaveHell said:

The slowing could help the build of cold ?!?

Couldn't give you a definitive answer, these small chges can be the difference between sleet and snow, one thing I will say about this is although people on low ground in the south will struggle, somewhere at 800-1000ft + will get a memorable event, usually with these there are small mild sectors (not big warm - ups but enough to urn snow temporary to rain), but this is consistently -5c or below in some areas for 3 days, somewhere like Buxton or even the higher parts in my location could get stream after stream and LOCALLY contingency planners could have their hands full - true cold zonality and the best PM incursion since ive been around here (7 and a half years), The one caveat is there are no big downgrades but there shouldn't be now - its too close.

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9 minutes ago, andymusic said:

slighty later on this run - maybe 2-3 hours difference and then this - very very windy too, so blizzards with the snow - bbc now ramping the change to cold come Monday

gfs-2-108.png?12

gfs-2-114.png?12

gfs-2-120.png?12

could be a very wintry night come Monday night and Tuesday will look a completely different day - windy freezing and snowy

UKmo going the same way:cold:

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Strange because usually with these kind of situations you see the uppers becoming moderated the closer they get to reality. This run has actually upgraded the cold in a reasonably close timeframe. I'm not convinced as yet but interesting nonetheless

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