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Model output discussion - mid-winter

Paul

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doesn't go out far enough to see it in all its glory, on the face of it quite a sea change but a number of GEFS members have shown this and EPS too looking at clustrs so actually in all honesty an op run was bound to throw out one eventually.

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7 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Well you have to say there's a trend for NE heights, though no more than that...

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018011512_300.

but day 8 is a bit soon although ukmo at day 5/6 looked like it could easily head in that direction and the ec op is hardly a mouth wide open shock after the past couple days gefs 

if ec is sniffing the way forward then the usual adjustment sw on the weekend low would be a decent snow event for much of the uk. 

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

By Jove is that an Easterly setting up on the ECM 120>144>168

Looking great - transition @just 1/0-144 now..

Fair play to you Steve for sticking your neck out and going against what the models were showing 

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288 would be a proper 80's redux rather than them half baked shallow ones the other week.

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I'd be extremely sceptical of the ECM Easterly garden path comes to mind. 

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Wow ECM is exceptional I for one have been looking for height rises to NE and there it goes!

DA407418-42AC-4829-86CE-16258010B86C.png 2073C153-AA45-4321-B345-8B03FF8E7CB9.thumb.png.021926217275a1eb43bb1fc88404832e.png

Edited by Daniel*
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Talk of an easterly but the ensembles aren't looking very promising? Don't get lured in again people:rofl:

IMG_8854.JPG

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No shortage of cold air in Europe unlike previously! Looks stubborn to shift.

CF40A01E-2C16-416A-9D56-A2734A878625.thumb.png.fde03da4dd0e85235531cf18e3404ee0.png

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Good agreement with ecm and gfs at t240!!!! Should be dry:D:D:rofl: if only model output forecasting was as easy as weather fforecasting...........

IMG_0381.PNG

IMG_0382.PNG

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Potential for a slider snow event between T120-144 some adjustments and it’s possible..

71659389-5363-47D4-9154-BB929C58A10F.thumb.gif.cda767ffe82340d26018679e63451b80.gifEBEFDC87-CA91-4C71-AF8D-52C69F731878.thumb.gif.1d0e57378c180b2f18c5e6fa3db07004.gif

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1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Surely the ECM just over amplifying the azores high? How many ECM Easterlies in the last 5 years have actually happened when shown at 168+. 

Don't get sucked in.

Bearing in mind we don't know how the next 48 hours will turn out, I'm not taking anything for granted atm. It is all just for fun, lets remember that :)

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7 minutes ago, carinthian said:

It would be wonderful for all cold fans if this Ecm chart was to come off. 3rd time lucky ? What I can say about it, well the block is strong through the heights and is better positioned further west than the last attempt. However, as we all know getting there has been difficult over the past few years, but I have a feeling the synoptics shown this winter so far, we will not be far off. Again will be interested by what our portal service forecast has in mind looking at this mornings outputs as they did hint a protracted cold spell is still very much in the making. Will get back later with a update. Anyway enjoy the snow showers today up north.

C

ECMOPEU00_240_1.png

Surely something has to give?

It seems we’ve been tugged back and fourth so many times. Pacific forcing apparently is set to aid potential amplification, it’s not really been there’s previously well it has fell flat... time for coldies to get what they deserve! Next week will mark five years since I’ve managed a proper covering here, I know my location isn’t great for snow, but this ‘snowless’ streak is as long as I can ever remember. It’s time for something spectacular. 

Edited by Daniel*
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Things-once again moving like clock-work in regards to models(perhaps) getting there data heads around evo's?!

The crucial thing for me with the ecm, is that regarding the easterly incursion(possibilities?)...

Is the fact it picks up the signal @168 and runs with it out to 240hrs!!!

With no punching down throughout!

That is a 'huge' pointing factor in regards to an' easterly incursion' ...solid modelin9g.

Lets see where/how other data rolls with this scenario....!!!

Edit; AZH- fruitful friend...or fickle foe????...

Lets just throw in yesterdays gefs member 12z @240!!!!.(bottom snap)

 

ECM1-168.gif

ECM1-192.gif

ECM1-216.gif

ECM1-216.gif

ECM1-240.gif

Gefs12z yesterday!!!- below.

gens-20-1-240.png

Edited by tight isobar

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UKMO extended and GFS both have a similar set-up at t168 main difference is where the precipitation would be

ukm2.2018012300_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.b5a1fe0efb592bc8b0afffa937e7c520.pnggfs2.2018012300_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.a7f813d96555510ec93f60f3279cc672.png

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3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended and GFS both have a similar set-up at t168 main difference is where the precipitation would be

ukm2.2018012300_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.b5a1fe0efb592bc8b0afffa937e7c520.pnggfs2.2018012300_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.a7f813d96555510ec93f60f3279cc672.png

Lol that lovely undercutty chart from yesterday evening now gone!!i swear these 168 charts from ukmo change so much!!i cant remember the last time it got something right at that time frame!!

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36 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Surely the ECM just over amplifying the azores high? How many ECM Easterlies in the last 5 years have actually happened when shown at 168+. 

Don't get sucked in.

None I don’t think.It looks nice on a computer screen but they never seem to verify.I I wouldn’t get excited. about ECM showing an Easterly until  it’s  still  showing .at t+72 .

Same with the other models,if something can go wrong when an Easterly is showing then it usually does.

If it’s still there by end of week then MAYBE it might happen,till then best to remember it only exists in a computer program:gathering:

 

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Eps mean/spreads offer little support for the op (the control does with similar evolution and a beasterly post day 10)

the eps mean does support a Scandi ridge in the extended period (as we saw on the clusters )  - is the op being progressive ?? 

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59 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Talk of an easterly but the ensembles aren't looking very promising? Don't get lured in again people:rofl:

IMG_8854.JPG

I find easterlies which sort of come out the blue have a much greater chance of materialising than when everything is going at full speed ahead often en route to an iceberg. 

GFS op isn’t without interest at T+240 looking at GEFS a fairly strong signal for +ve heights to the north / east majority have heights too east to have an influence, the 12Z will be interesting. 

0D9E9279-AC1A-4204-B1C4-E3E5A394D4CD.thumb.png.d77a3f7e9b80d5b5503b1de2c34975f2.png

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1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

None I don’t think.It looks nice on a computer screen but they never seem to verify.I I wouldn’t get excited. about ECM showing an Easterly until  it’s  still  showing .at t+72 .

Same with the other models,if something can go wrong when an Easterly is showing then it usually does.

If it’s still there by end of week then MAYBE it might happen,till then best to remember it only exists in a computer program:gathering:

 

Agree.  at the very least, lets see it backed up from some other models. Unlike the day 10 easterlies it can't completely disregarded at that timeframe but at least we won't need to wait for too long as I suspect by this evening it will get some support or will disappear to that mysterious place where ECM easterlies go to die when it updates this afternoon!  

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46 minutes ago, carinthian said:

It would be wonderful for all cold fans if this Ecm chart was to come off. 3rd time lucky ? What I can say about it, well the block is strong through the heights and is better positioned further west than the last attempt. However, as we all know getting there has been difficult over the past few years, but I have a feeling the synoptics shown this winter so far, we will not be far off. Again will be interested by what our portal service forecast has in mind looking at this mornings outputs as they did hint a protracted cold spell is still very much in the making. Will get back later with a update. Anyway enjoy the snow showers today up north.

C

ECMOPEU00_240_1.png

3rd time lucky?

How about 30th time lucky! Lol

Meanwhile its another green morning despite the weather warnings.

Wednesdays low shiftedslightly south again and if correct the centre would pass over my house, lots of snow for Southern Scotland and gales for Liverpool and Manchester.

Andy

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