Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Pollen
Paul

Model output discussion - mid-winter

Paul

Please only post model discussion in here & please keep it friendly!

For more general chat and banter, moans and ramps, please head to the banter thread.
For general weather chat, please go to the regional threads.

Notice a problem with a post? Please hit the report button.
Thank you!

View the latest forecast models in the Netweather DataCentre

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

9 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Perturbation 4 is scary

gens-4-1-120.png

The intensity of the low drags the cold air under its southern flank rapidly

gens-4-0-120.pnggens-4-2-120.png

 

That's an absolute snorter - a true blizzard!.

  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Despite some support from the models for this devilish storm next Wednesday/Thursday, the chances are most of the models (especially the ICON 06Z) are over-blowing that little monster. And by the time the day arrives itself, the Low (if it definitely happens) should end up much slacker and consequently may result in it taking a more Southerly track. This of which may increase wintry possibilities for places.

Clearly something to keep an eye on anyway and, if it does come off like what some of the current models are showing, I guess we may have to all vacate to the Moon!

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Despite some support from the models for this devilish storm next Wednesday/Thursday, the chances are most of the models (especially the ICON 06Z) are over-blowing that little monster. And by the time the day arrives itself, the Low (if it definitely happens) should end up much slacker and consequently may result in it taking a more Southerly track. This of which may increase wintry possibilities for places.

Clearly something to keep an eye on anyway and, if it does come off like what some of the current models are showing, I guess we may have to all vacate to the Moon!

Can someone explain to me why everyone thinks that the track will be more southerly than currently progged?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, ghoneym said:

I'm from a snow starved part of Scotland but I understand why the guys often don't mention us, we are very fortunate to live in a country where we are topography enhanced compared to many low lying areas down  South, also by far the majority of folk actually posting in the MOD forum are from down south so go figure. 

Go figure what my friend? I assume the model discussion includes Northern Ireland and Wales too,not just England? I’m confident this developing pattern will deliver wintriness to many who have missed out so far.As some have also said,I find this NW/SE flow intriguing especially as it qualifies as a blocking pattern.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, Chevron12345 said:

Well its still there on the 06..

The sytem is arriving/happening so thats reliable. Definately a wet and windy week for most, after the storm is another matter.

It was your reference to wet and windy you should have thrown in or maybe white and windy , currently we don’t know 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Weather Boy said:

Can someone explain to me why everyone thinks that the track will be more southerly than currently progged?

If it deepens less it will have a less northerly track. however, the open wave op options on show this morning are not really Southern based. Given the dynamics of the flow it is engaging with, I would be waiting for Monday before thinking too hard about where it goes and what it’s likely to verify as (open wave, slack depression or deep depression). 

  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Banbury said:

It was your reference to wet and windy you should have thrown in or maybe white and windy , currently we don’t know 

Models show wet and windy..for most. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Chevron12345 said:

Models show wet and windy..for most. 

Could you please post some evidence I.e precip charts etc

Screenshot_20180113-130120.png

Edited by winterof79

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, radiohead said:

06Z ICON

iconeu_uk1-52-120-0.png?13-11 

Is this snow or rain?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

windspeeds/gusts, but my French not great

Thank you it’s me being a bit stupid and nit reading it correctly sorry

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, DonnaThw said:

Is this snow or rain?

Wind speed in KPH

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, DonnaThw said:

Is this snow or rain?

Wind haha.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Happy to see there is no strong signal for anything particularly mild during the next few weeks, just looked at the GEFS 6z mean and it looks generally cold throughout, especially for most of next week into the following week so I would anticipate plenty of opportunities for wintry ppn in the form of showers and frontal, cold enough for snow at times, especially further north and with elevation as well as lots of frosty / icy nights.:):cold:

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Afternoon all :)

An interesting week coming it would seem with fresh to strong WNW'ly winds and frequent showers, no doubt primarily of rain for the south and lower ground but the possibility of snow to lower levels in the north and to altitude almost anywhere with the "fun and games" of a vigorous secondary LP crossing the south on Wednesday/Thursday bringing a potentially disruptive spell of rain and strong winds.

By the end of the week the trough is moving out to the east and south east and a northerly brings in some very cold air with the likelihood of a couple of frigid nights and especially where any snow has remained.

Where do we go from there ?

ECM 12Z OP at T+240:

ECM1-240.GIF?13-12

If you want a definition of a messy chart, there you go. The Atlantic looks weak, the Azores HP is suppressed well to the south but there's little evidence of northern blocking either.

GEM 00Z OP at T+240:

gem-0-234.png?00

The Atlantic wins through albeit without much power. The differences in NH profile with ECM are considerable so no surprise it's a different evolution.

GFS 06Z OP at T+240:

gfs-0-240.png?6

The Atlantic in charge to a degree but still some hint of a negative tilt to the trough so you'd think the LP would head SE rather than NE. 

GFS 06Z Control at T+240:

gens-0-1-240.png

Takes this to another extent as the LP deepens sharply and slides SE into France but the HP builds back strongly behind it.

Picking the bones out of the METO 30-day summary there's an argument for an MLB to set up near the British isles and then sinking south allowing milder Atlantic air to return into February. The GEFS show the Azores HP becoming more influential with time but its orientation and position still very much up for grabs. It COULD ridge in strongly toward the UK sending the jet back north but it could inflate in the mid Atlantic keeping the N'ly or NW/'ly flow going. Nowhere near resolved yet.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
57 minutes ago, Weather Boy said:

Can someone explain to me why everyone thinks that the track will be more southerly than currently progged?

I think because the last couple of snowy lows have also gone south. Difference here is no embedded cold ridge ahead. Also, I suppose many of us are guessing it won't be as intense come the day, and that would probably mean a slight correction south. I wouldn't be so sure imo.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Daniel* said:

That’s horrific. Major storm affecting large swathes; why do I feel this is going to be v nasty? A lot of structural damage with 111mph = 180km/h. Plausible this may be the most potent storm in years.

Storms like this hit us and you every few years (in 2013 even twice) , so nothing really out of the ordinary, still not to be underestimated and could be dangerous though 

 

Interestingly there have been many destructive storms between 18th and 25th of January in the past 

Edited by ArHu3
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As the east gets a snow blitz from screaming easterlies not this time, the snow machine activates for N/W Britain. The showers will be very frequent almost continuous, just look at this ppn chart! 

4418CBB9-42A5-4818-8260-E0DCF6E46C66.thumb.gif.4aaeb37991c95b34d7bf1475ca012f1a.gif

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Storms like this hit us and you every few years, so nothing really out of the ordinary, still not to be underestimated and could be dangerous though 

It is out the ordinary the extreme NW the Hebrides tends to see very strong winds that isn’t that unusual but not in more populated regions. A once every xx storm the ICON shows. For some you better hope ICON is nowhere near. 

Edited by Daniel*

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just had a chance to check the models and I am a bit disappointed with the development of that stormy low. It basically interrupts the cold spell and any snow turns to rain. I don't mind a stormy spell but not in the expense of the cold. 

6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

As the east gets a snow blitz from screaming easterlies not this time, the snow machine activates for N/W Britain. The showers will be very frequent almost continuous, just look at this ppn chart! 

4418CBB9-42A5-4818-8260-E0DCF6E46C66.thumb.gif.4aaeb37991c95b34d7bf1475ca012f1a.gif

Pity it will turn to rain by Wednesday night.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The deep low pressure is being over played by the models along with the shower activity.

we are looking at a windy week with showers, mostly of rain, away from elevation.  Showers reducing towards the end of the week with some sharp frosts.

day time temperatures generally between 3 and 8 degrees c.  After next weekend we may see higher temperatures move in from the west.  I am not seeing enough HP to the north at present to assist in giving more interesting weather for coldies.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, karyo said:

Just had a chance to check the models and I am a bit disappointed with the development of that stormy low. It basically interrupts the cold spell and any snow turns to rain. I don't mind a stormy spell but not in the expense of the cold. 

Pity it will turn to rain by Wednesday night.

you've no idea the exact route it'll take yet until closer to the time - so who knows where the line will be drawn for who gets snow/sleet/rain/blizzard/hurricane etc etc

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Similar Content

    • By Paul
      Please continue with the model discussion here, as we perhaps head towards the hottest spell of what has already been a rare, very dry, very warm summer?
      Please keep on topic in this thread, by only discussing the model output. This isn't the place to be discussing (or arguing) over weather preferences and the like, so please don't be tempted to go there! And as ever, please also keep it friendly...
      Want to view the model outputs?
      You can get all the major ones here on Netweather:
      GFS
      GEFS Ensembles
      ECMWF
      ECMWF EPS
      NetWx-SR
      NetWx-MR
      Met-Office
      Fax
      GEM
      GFS Hourly
      Model Comparison
      Global Jet Stream
      Stratosphere
    • By phil nw.
      Well we are around the halfway point of the Spring season and it seems a good time to start a new thread to continue discussions.
      A look at the 00z ECM day 4 charts shows that finally some widespread warmth is on the way after the cold,damp and often cloudy conditions of recent weeks.

      A developing Euro high and a stalling Atlantic trough pushing the jet stream further north and bringing the winds from a warmer south/south westerly direction.
      A welcome change of pattern for most of us i would think.
      Ok please continue 
       
       
       
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×