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Model output discussion - mid-winter

Paul

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Gfs shows snow next week in the West! 

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2 minutes ago, snowice said:

Gfs shows snow next week in the West! 

Gfs looks pretty damn good for the north and west from 132 hours onwards!!!

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very nice gfs if you like from next week onwards 

north west look in prime position 

interesting times 

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3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Gfs looks pretty damn good for the north and west from 132 hours onwards!!!

Some relief that the 6z gfs doesn't follow the ECM:)

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A more NW-SE trajectory but the PV chunk is weaker and dying away quickly (partly as a result of greater heights into Greenland), sure to have an effect down the line.

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Nice looking charts. Heights over Greenland continuing a theme from yesterdays GFS 12z, a long draw of cold air from Canada to the Med! 

gfsnh-0-198.png

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7 minutes ago, karyo said:

Some relief that the 6z gfs doesn't follow the ECM:)

Thank god mate!!!any improvements on the 06z icon if you know🤔

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Just now, shaky said:

Thank god mate!!!any improvements on the 06z icon if you know🤔

The 6z ICON looks similar to the previous run unfortunately. It only goes up to 120 hours but at to that point no change to 0z

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2 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Nice looking charts. Heights over Greenland continuing a theme from yesterdays GFS 12z, a long draw of cold air from Canada to the Med! 

gfsnh-0-198.png

Wow  Seasonality...

With reports of 2 -7M of snow in the French Alps in the last 2 days (and still falling), we may have to send a search party for the alps if this verifies.:D 

MIA

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Comparing the 00z to the 06z. Atlantic ridging into Greenland and reinvigoration of Scandi heights. 

gfsnh-0-222.png

gfsnh-0-216.png

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Quite a bit of ❄❄❄❄ snow spreading in from the NW from early next week on the Gfs 6z, impressive cold zonality.:):cold-emoji:

Edited by Frosty.
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Dew points cold enough for many for snow, parts of the west see snow showers from 132hr right through to what seems for ever lovely.

Screenshot_20180110-102339.png

Screenshot_20180110-102607.png

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6z gfs from 216 could be a belter!!! Tying in with GP ete musings going forward ie heights building nne

Edited by swfc

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2 minutes ago, karyo said:

The 6z ICON looks similar to the previous run unfortunately. It only goes up to 120 hours but at to that point no change to 0z

For Compressions Icon Vs GFS (6z)

icon-0-120.png?10-06gfs-0-120.png?6

GFS is digging deeper into Europe.

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Anyone who viewed the 18Z last night shouldn't be surprised by the 06Z so far. This is why I am surprised at some of the posts this morning especially considering the GEM output also.

 

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Just now, Seasonality said:

Now going for an Iceland/Scandi link up of heights.

gfsnh-0-228.png

And by 252 hours we're back to where we are now. 😂  Thankfully anything past 120/144 is pure conjecture.

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard

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Atlantic looks too strong in FI this time but, maybe, if the heights left there can build the way they have done this week, could that next attempt at a block lead to a battleground event? Needs all the elements to fall into place but you never know......

EDIT: Not backing down on the strat warming either, bringing it forwards as time passes. 324h now.

gfsnh-10-324_hsa5.png

 

Edited by ukpaul

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1 minute ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

And by 252 hours we're back to where we are now. 😂

Not really, much colder over both the mainland and the UK and a rather different picture synoptically. All academic at this range of course.

 

gfseu-0-252.png

gfseu-0-6.png

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Just now, Seasonality said:

Not really, much colder over both the mainland and the UK and a rather different picture synoptically. All academic at this range of course.

 

gfseu-0-252.png

gfseu-0-6.png

I take your point Seasonality.I. was refering to the synoptic stalemate with the high too far east and low stalling out west as you say though

 Totally academic at that range.

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard

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There is one shred of hope, in the gfs06z, I suppose: it's very unlikely to verify!:yahoo:

h850t850eu.png

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The GFS seems determined to keep us interested . The chopping and changing  with how the trough disrupts at least gives hope that the matter isn’t settled.

The ECM though looks less than interested and given the timeframes that would have to perform  a back track.

It seems though since its upgrade to veer from either over amplified or has at times thrown out some much more progressive outputs.

 

 

 

Edited by nick sussex

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Wales & Ireland could well be a winter wonderland next week

gfs-2-180.png?6

 

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5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

There is one shred of hope, in the gfs06z, I suppose: it's very unlikely to verify!:yahoo:

h850t850eu.png

Especially at day 16 🤣 

 

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