Model output discussion - mid-winter

[shaky]

4 minutes ago, andymusic said:

and here comes the snow

Hmm dont look as extensive to me compares to the last few runs for the same time!!

[snowice]

2 minutes ago, andymusic said:

and here comes the snow

It's even heavier than 6z

[andymusic]

mrs will have a bit of a shock coming back from Benidorm landing cardiff midday Tuesday, she'll think the captain took a wrong turn lol

Edited January 13, 2018 by andymusic

[shaky]

Gfs 10mb higher at 84 hours compared to 06z!!

[SMU]

T84 is troughmazement 

runner shallower & further south

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, andymusic said:

mrs will have a bit of a shock coming back from Benidorm landing cardiff midday Tuesday, she'll think the captain took a wrong turn lol

If that verified she wouldn't be landing at Cardiff airport at that time, she'd be diverted to Stanstead instead.

[Weather-history]

Interesting feature in the flow

[SMU]

UKMO 96

very shallow

[shaky]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO 96

very shallow

Steve huge backtrack from gfs aswell!further south with that shortwave!!

[Snowy L]

Where does it even get the energy from to explode like that. In the Mid-Atlantic it is barely a wave.

 

12z looks a lot weaker though at least.

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Steve huge backtrack from gfs aswell!further south with that shortwave!!

Indeed it’s a wave rather than a closed low much more shallow much greater risk of snow on northern flank.

12z v 06z

[Mucka]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Steve huge backtrack from gfs aswell!further south with that shortwave!!

We are talking tiny differences at this scale, run to run will change.

Exciting times.

[Weather-history]

5 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Interesting feature in the flow

Hmm, I wonder what that could be?

[snowice]

Gfs going shallow low as well,  better.! 

PS Netweather crashed a few minutes ago. 

Edited January 13, 2018 by snowice

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

We are talking tiny differences at this scale, run to run will change.

Exciting times.

? It’s a sizeable difference. 

[winterof79]

3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Hmm, I wonder what that could be?

A gricelandar Low

Edited January 13, 2018 by winterof79

[karyo]

2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Hmm, I wonder what that could be?

Good chance for snow to low levels I would have thought. 

[Daniel*]

4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Hmm, I wonder what that could be?

That’s a trough organised area of PPN probably all snow associated with it.

Edited January 13, 2018 by Daniel*

[andymusic]

normal service will resume with snow once the "low" has passed through and battered the hell out of the Bristol channel - but as everyone else has said - track of this will still be up in the air till Wednesday night

[SMU]

UKMO 144

cold all the way- into Northerlies by Friday !

[Jonan92]

Big changes in UKMO, everything is moved to the east quite a lot

[Mucka]

GEM great with the runner low but awful in the Atlantic thereafter.

Let's hope it has the first part right and the second part wrong.

[bobbydog]

still a bit blowy for the south-

a few more corrections south and.....

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

1 minute ago, andymusic said:

normal service will resume with snow once the "low" has passed through and battered the hell out of the Bristol channel - but as everyone else has said - track of this will still be up in the air till Wednesday night

And the English Channel coasts with gusts up to 60-70mph very windy across all of southern England too, fortunately this low is not as intense as the GFS 0&6z 

[karyo]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GEM great with the runner low but awful in the Atlantic thereafter.

Let's hope it has the first part right and the second part wrong.

The GEM has been a pain recently with the Azores High edging over Iberia and parts of France. We need it to pull west and north.